Referendum C and D update (8/30/05).

Over the last week the Referendum C and D campaign entered a new phase. The Pro-C side shifted its tactics. They transformed their campaign from a single pronged attack that focused on introducing and selling the referenda to the voters, into a multi-front campaign. The new tactic was introduced on the 23rd by a series of Lynn Bartels articles in the Rocky Mountain News. One focuses on the attack against the Independence Institute. A link to it can be found here. The other focuses on the attack on the Colorado Club for Growth and Colorado Freedom Works. A link to it can be found here.

On the 25th a Bill Scanlon article revealed that two liberal groups, The League of Women Voters and Colorado Common Cause, were joining the Vote Yes on C&D campaign in calling for the Independence Institute, Colorado Freedom Works and the Colorado Club for Growth (all identified as conservative) to reveal their donors. A link to that article is available here.

In another Bill Scanlon article, this one from today, it became obvious that the Anti-C side was determined to repeal the attacks from the Pro-C side. House Minority Leader Joe Stengal (R) filed a complaint against Buffie McFadyen (D) saying that she was promoting C and D on taxpayer financed time.

The guys over at Coloradopols.com posted on this story on the 25th. If you don't already know, Coloradopols.com is THE place where political fanatics and insiders go in Colorado. A link to their post is available here. It is interesting not only for the body of the post, but the discussion in the comments section is also a wealth of information. They also have a poll that asks if you think C and D will pass. A link to that poll is available here.

Some more interesting sites to check for info on C and D.
Anti C:
Colorado Freedom Works
Colorado Freedom Report

Pro C:
The Bell Action Network
Vote No Its Your Dough.com

Cross posted at Polstate.com.

In the hopper...

On the evening of September 30th we will update our C and D homepage, there is much to report on the campaign along with new links that need to be added.

We will open our "Top of the Ticket" section which will look at the 2006 Governor's race. We will have links to the different campaign websites along with predictions of who will win in November.

Lastly, we will begin an analysis called "From Tabor to Today" where we will look at what all of the statewide ballot referenda were supposed to do and what they either have or have not done, from Tabor's passage in the early 1990s until last year's election. Tabor to Today will wrap up the weekend before the big election.

Updated predictions on C and D.

I've been creating some new models for predicting elections. I didn't feel very good after the 2004 elections because my models weren't anywhere near 95% accurate (especially on state issues). I've been working hard with the numbers. I'm using models now that instead of predicting percentages of the vote (like my last batch) now predict the likelihood of passage.

Using these new models, I now predict that Referendum C has a 20% likelihood of passage. Referendum D has a 16% probability of passage.

The current models only explain 80% of the results, in the coming months, as I add in more data from prior years, the models will get better and the numbers will change.

Early poll out on Ref. C and D.

A Mason Dixon poll from July found that support for Referendum C was at 43%. 42% of the 625 respondents said they would vote against the measure and 15% said that they were undecided. The poll was conducted July 11-13. Support for Referendum D was at 39%, with 45% against it.

Normally for a ballot issue to pass it must poll in at least the high 60s if it stands a chance of passing. However the supporters of C and D have already raised over $1 million while the referenda's opponents have raised only $100,000.