Today marks the start of the second week of the 2005 session of the Colorado General Assembly. Here is a link to the Rocky Mountain New's coverage of the state legislature. The Denver Post doesn't have a special legislature page, but here is a link to their "local politics" page.
Last week we saw the first fireworks of what promises to be a nasty two years. The Republicans have not been in the minority of both houses in Colorado since Kennedy was in office and some members of the caucus are bitter over the loss.
The tone for the 2005 session was set early when State Senator Norma Anderson (R) of Lakewood made a move to block the election of State Senator Joan Fitz-Gerald (D) of Golden from assuming the post of President. The move failed, but it inspired some local columnists such as self described hippie Mike Littwin and the guys over at Colorado Pols to cry foul. (Check out Colorado Pols for an interesting line on the upcoming gubernatorial race, some interesting work going on there, still waiting on the odds for control of the State Legislatue)
Governor Bill Owens shot some rhetorical warning shots over the bow of the Democratic leadership in his State of the State address last week. If you compare it to State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald’s opening day remarks you can see where some of the biggest battles will be. Look for internal battles among the Democrats when it comes to social issues, such as the bill that would add sexual orientation to employment anti-discrimination state laws and between the Democrats and Republicans on fiscal matters, especially when it comes to the fate of Colorado's Tabor amendment which limits taxes and government growth.
Also, the Rocky Mountain Alliance of Bloggers got an invite to sit down with Governor Owens after the State of the State. It appears that the Guv has taken notice of the work of these well connected and articulate conservative bloggers. A picture of the gaggle is available here.
Look for a continuation later this week of my series on the state legislature. My last article can be found here. Cross posted at Polstate.
Monday, January 17, 2005
Wednesday, January 12, 2005
Delphi on Colorado: State Senate Leadership.
Today marks the first time since Kennedy was President that Democrats have control over both houses of Colorado's legislature. A link to the Rocky Mountain news is available here. As the state legislature opens, we can look forward to a colorful session. Tabor, the nationally known Taxpayers Bill of Rights, is sure to come under direct attack, not only by the Democratic majority, but by Higher Ed. and the AARP. Additionally, we will get the pleasure of watching infighting in both parties.
On the Democratic side: Colorado Labor Unions staged a rally today at the capital to announce exactly what they want from the Democrats, who, while they may not have signed IOUs, certainly owe Colorado Labor for their victory last election cycle. Key members of the Colorado Democratic party believe that if they play the "fiscal responsibility" card they can maintain their majorities in Colorado, a state where even as the GOP lost its majorities in the state legislature, it received tens of thousands more votes than the Democrats overall. This attempt by the Democratic leadership to stay away from "social issues" will sting the party faithful, who are already calling the historic Democratic victory a win for "GOP Lite."
Republicans are having some difficult times themselves. Immediately after their loss they chose new, more moderate leaders. However, this belies a civil war that is occurring in the party. An example of this is a open letter from the Chairman of the Jefferson County GOP to Bob Schaffer over a mailing that Schaffer sent out during the general election which probably cost a moderate Republican her seat. And how can we ignore the three ring circus that is Douglas Bruce's election to the El Paso County Commissioners.
Here is a look at the new leadership of the Colorado State Senate.
State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald (D) Golden, a social and fiscal liberal from New York, is the first female President of the State Senate.
The fiscally conservative Colorado Union of Taxpayers ranks Senator Fitz-Gerald as the 8th most fiscally liberal member of the State Senate. This is a special achievement since some Democrats, such as Paula Sandoval of Denver and Bob Hagedorn or Aurora are ranked as the 5th and 7th most conservative members of the State Senate (sandwiching outgoing Senate President John Andrews). In 2002 she voted with the Colorado Farm Bureau 75% of the time. In 2004 she received a A rating from the Colorado Political Voice for Animals. Also in 2004 she voted with the Colorado PIRG 100% of the time (if you aren’t familiar with the work of the state PIRGs, think of Ralph Nader), voted with the Colorado National Federation of Independent Business 41% of the time, voted with Equal Rights Colorado 100 % of the time, voted with Colorado Conservation Voters 100% of the time, voted with Colorado Women's Agenda 100% of the time, voted with Rocky Mountain Gun Owners 0% of the time in 2003 and got a grade of an F from the NRA in 2002. Going farther back she voted with the Colorado AFL-CIO 100% of the time in 2001. For a link to project vote smart’s group rating page click here. Overall, Senator Fitz-Gerald’s liberal pedigree is impeccable. In 2004 the most generally conservative think tank in Colorado, the Wilberforce Center, ranked Joan Fitz-Gerald the second most liberal member of the Colorado State Senate, behind only Ron Tupa (D) of Boulder.
Senator Ken Gordon, considered a moderate by many, has voting patterns that make him appear to be a mainstream to liberal Democrat, not a moderate.
The fiscally conservative Colorado Union of Taxpayers ranks Senator Gordon in the middle of the pack in the State Senate. In 2002 he voted with the Colorado Farm Bureau 80% of the time. In 2004 he received a A- rating from the Colorado Political Voice for Animals. Also in 2004 he voted with the Colorado PIRG 100% of the time, voted with the Colorado National Federation of Independent Business 41% of the time, voted with Equal Rights Colorado 100% of the time, voted with Colorado Conservation Voters 100% of the time, voted with Colorado Women's Agenda 100% of the time, voted with Rocky Mountain Gun Owners 0% of the time in 2003 and got a grade of an F from the NRA in 2004. Going farther back he voted with the Colorado AFL-CIO 100% of the time in 2001. Overall, it is hard to call Senator Gordon a moderate in a true sense of the word. However, in the more narrow context of among Democrats, he does appear to be mainstream. For those keeping count on how liberal this "mainstream" Democrat is, he is ranked fourth most liberal member of the State Senate by the Wilberforce Center.
This is the first in a series of articles looking at the State Legislature and how the mainstream media portrays it. Look for an in depth analysis of how the election was won in the coming weeks.
Cross posted at Polstate.
On the Democratic side: Colorado Labor Unions staged a rally today at the capital to announce exactly what they want from the Democrats, who, while they may not have signed IOUs, certainly owe Colorado Labor for their victory last election cycle. Key members of the Colorado Democratic party believe that if they play the "fiscal responsibility" card they can maintain their majorities in Colorado, a state where even as the GOP lost its majorities in the state legislature, it received tens of thousands more votes than the Democrats overall. This attempt by the Democratic leadership to stay away from "social issues" will sting the party faithful, who are already calling the historic Democratic victory a win for "GOP Lite."
Republicans are having some difficult times themselves. Immediately after their loss they chose new, more moderate leaders. However, this belies a civil war that is occurring in the party. An example of this is a open letter from the Chairman of the Jefferson County GOP to Bob Schaffer over a mailing that Schaffer sent out during the general election which probably cost a moderate Republican her seat. And how can we ignore the three ring circus that is Douglas Bruce's election to the El Paso County Commissioners.
Here is a look at the new leadership of the Colorado State Senate.
State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald (D) Golden, a social and fiscal liberal from New York, is the first female President of the State Senate.
The fiscally conservative Colorado Union of Taxpayers ranks Senator Fitz-Gerald as the 8th most fiscally liberal member of the State Senate. This is a special achievement since some Democrats, such as Paula Sandoval of Denver and Bob Hagedorn or Aurora are ranked as the 5th and 7th most conservative members of the State Senate (sandwiching outgoing Senate President John Andrews). In 2002 she voted with the Colorado Farm Bureau 75% of the time. In 2004 she received a A rating from the Colorado Political Voice for Animals. Also in 2004 she voted with the Colorado PIRG 100% of the time (if you aren’t familiar with the work of the state PIRGs, think of Ralph Nader), voted with the Colorado National Federation of Independent Business 41% of the time, voted with Equal Rights Colorado 100 % of the time, voted with Colorado Conservation Voters 100% of the time, voted with Colorado Women's Agenda 100% of the time, voted with Rocky Mountain Gun Owners 0% of the time in 2003 and got a grade of an F from the NRA in 2002. Going farther back she voted with the Colorado AFL-CIO 100% of the time in 2001. For a link to project vote smart’s group rating page click here. Overall, Senator Fitz-Gerald’s liberal pedigree is impeccable. In 2004 the most generally conservative think tank in Colorado, the Wilberforce Center, ranked Joan Fitz-Gerald the second most liberal member of the Colorado State Senate, behind only Ron Tupa (D) of Boulder.
Senator Ken Gordon, considered a moderate by many, has voting patterns that make him appear to be a mainstream to liberal Democrat, not a moderate.
The fiscally conservative Colorado Union of Taxpayers ranks Senator Gordon in the middle of the pack in the State Senate. In 2002 he voted with the Colorado Farm Bureau 80% of the time. In 2004 he received a A- rating from the Colorado Political Voice for Animals. Also in 2004 he voted with the Colorado PIRG 100% of the time, voted with the Colorado National Federation of Independent Business 41% of the time, voted with Equal Rights Colorado 100% of the time, voted with Colorado Conservation Voters 100% of the time, voted with Colorado Women's Agenda 100% of the time, voted with Rocky Mountain Gun Owners 0% of the time in 2003 and got a grade of an F from the NRA in 2004. Going farther back he voted with the Colorado AFL-CIO 100% of the time in 2001. Overall, it is hard to call Senator Gordon a moderate in a true sense of the word. However, in the more narrow context of among Democrats, he does appear to be mainstream. For those keeping count on how liberal this "mainstream" Democrat is, he is ranked fourth most liberal member of the State Senate by the Wilberforce Center.
This is the first in a series of articles looking at the State Legislature and how the mainstream media portrays it. Look for an in depth analysis of how the election was won in the coming weeks.
Cross posted at Polstate.
Text of letter from Jeffco GOP Chairman to Bob Schaffer.
Dear Bob:
As a loyal Republican and as Chairman of the Jefferson County Republicans I
was stunned by the Voucher mailing sent out to constituents of Ramey Johnson
in House District 23.
Although cleverly written not to urge voting against Ramey there can be not
other conclusion from the tenure of its content.
Bob, you have greatly disappointed many Republicans who were your greatest
supporters in your run for the U.S. Senate and who were upset over the way
they perceived you were treated by state leaders of our party with the
addition of Pete Coors as a candidate.
Under the circumstances I would have thought you would be more
sophisticated, especially with your background in our party and as a
legislator both here in Colorado in Washington, to have willingly engaged in
trying to influence the defeat of one of our party‚s standard bearers in
this general election. Right or wrong the time for such action would have
been to with an eye to a primary in support of one who might hold similar
beliefs about vouchers, or after the election --- not one week before the
general election.
I have spent two years as Chairman of our County urging all Republicans to
consider that they have more in common with each other than with the
Democrats. If people like you to whom many look to for leadership cannot be
trusted to work for all of our candidates that have earned their way on to
the ballot, what hope do we have for the future.
This party can not endure if segments of it continue to have such tunnel
vision for their one big issue that they fail to see the big picture that
our party, to be significant here in Colorado, must recognize that it is a
coalition of many factions held together by some very basic underlying
principles that distinguish us from the Dems.
We need people like you to be in the front lines bringing our party together
rather than sowing seeds of division.
Lynn Watwood
Chairman, Jefferson County Republicans
As a loyal Republican and as Chairman of the Jefferson County Republicans I
was stunned by the Voucher mailing sent out to constituents of Ramey Johnson
in House District 23.
Although cleverly written not to urge voting against Ramey there can be not
other conclusion from the tenure of its content.
Bob, you have greatly disappointed many Republicans who were your greatest
supporters in your run for the U.S. Senate and who were upset over the way
they perceived you were treated by state leaders of our party with the
addition of Pete Coors as a candidate.
Under the circumstances I would have thought you would be more
sophisticated, especially with your background in our party and as a
legislator both here in Colorado in Washington, to have willingly engaged in
trying to influence the defeat of one of our party‚s standard bearers in
this general election. Right or wrong the time for such action would have
been to with an eye to a primary in support of one who might hold similar
beliefs about vouchers, or after the election --- not one week before the
general election.
I have spent two years as Chairman of our County urging all Republicans to
consider that they have more in common with each other than with the
Democrats. If people like you to whom many look to for leadership cannot be
trusted to work for all of our candidates that have earned their way on to
the ballot, what hope do we have for the future.
This party can not endure if segments of it continue to have such tunnel
vision for their one big issue that they fail to see the big picture that
our party, to be significant here in Colorado, must recognize that it is a
coalition of many factions held together by some very basic underlying
principles that distinguish us from the Dems.
We need people like you to be in the front lines bringing our party together
rather than sowing seeds of division.
Lynn Watwood
Chairman, Jefferson County Republicans
Delphi on Colorado version 2.0
We are back, look for some heavy posting over the next few days as we get our sea legs back. We are putting the finishing touches our overview of the 2004 election, which, we are still trying to get published (hello Denver Post and Rocky Mountain News).
Look to see the site get some major updates, new links and new analysis.
Sorry you all couldn't come to Mazatlan with us, but our southern command is only so big.
Look to see the site get some major updates, new links and new analysis.
Sorry you all couldn't come to Mazatlan with us, but our southern command is only so big.
Thursday, November 18, 2004
What's Next?
As we wait for the final tallies, Me and Joe will be doing an analysis of the Colorado State Legislature elections. We both have an hypothesis that the extra money that the Democrats had in most races made the difference.
When that report becomes available, we will post it here. Look for it some time in Mid-December.
As for MHD. We are working on a Colorado Centric version of the Almanac of American Politics. Hopefully we can sell it to High School civics classes and intro to Political Science students at the University level.
We will be tracking the Colorado State Legislature this year, something that few non-partisan institutions do. Each member will have there group ratings posted, will be given MHD ratings for Economic and Social voting patterns, and we will develope, or more probably just apply, something like the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Basically, you'll know who is the most conservative and most liberal members of the body.
Looking forward, we may be moving to a new site in the coming months, somewhere where we can have interactive maps of the Colorado State House and Senate Districts. We won't be neglecting the 2003 elections, god knows what will show up next year.
I'll be posting regularly at Polstate, look for my posts.
When that report becomes available, we will post it here. Look for it some time in Mid-December.
As for MHD. We are working on a Colorado Centric version of the Almanac of American Politics. Hopefully we can sell it to High School civics classes and intro to Political Science students at the University level.
We will be tracking the Colorado State Legislature this year, something that few non-partisan institutions do. Each member will have there group ratings posted, will be given MHD ratings for Economic and Social voting patterns, and we will develope, or more probably just apply, something like the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Basically, you'll know who is the most conservative and most liberal members of the body.
Looking forward, we may be moving to a new site in the coming months, somewhere where we can have interactive maps of the Colorado State House and Senate Districts. We won't be neglecting the 2003 elections, god knows what will show up next year.
I'll be posting regularly at Polstate, look for my posts.
Thursday, November 11, 2004
Il Silencio...MHD pays tribute to our fighting forces.
Originally from the WSJ last Friday...
But its the letters to be opened in the event of a death that are the most difficult to listen to, and at the same time the most tender, the most loving. Wearing a red sweater with a heart shaped U.S. flag knit into the front, Melissa Givens, the widow of Pfc. Jesse A. Givens, reads from a letter he wrote to her and their two sons:
"My family, I never thought that I would be writing a letter like this, I really don't know where to start. I've been getting bad feelings though and well if you're reading this...The happiest moments in my life all dealt with my little family. I will always have with me the small moments we all shared. the moments when you quit taking life so serious and smiled. The sounds of a beautiful boy's laughter or the simple nudge of a baby unborn. Each one of you. You saved me from the loneliness and taught me how to think beyond myself...Don't ever think that since I wasn't around that I didn't love you. You were conceived of love and I came to this terrible place for love...Please understand that I had to be gone so that I could take care of my family...Do me a favor. After you tuck Toad and Bean in, give them hugs and kisses from me. Go outside and look at the stars and count them. Don't forget to smile."
Pfc. Givens, assigned to Second Squadron, Third Armored Calvary Regiment out of Fort Carson, Colorado, died in a tank accident on May 1, 2003. He was 34 years old.
But its the letters to be opened in the event of a death that are the most difficult to listen to, and at the same time the most tender, the most loving. Wearing a red sweater with a heart shaped U.S. flag knit into the front, Melissa Givens, the widow of Pfc. Jesse A. Givens, reads from a letter he wrote to her and their two sons:
"My family, I never thought that I would be writing a letter like this, I really don't know where to start. I've been getting bad feelings though and well if you're reading this...The happiest moments in my life all dealt with my little family. I will always have with me the small moments we all shared. the moments when you quit taking life so serious and smiled. The sounds of a beautiful boy's laughter or the simple nudge of a baby unborn. Each one of you. You saved me from the loneliness and taught me how to think beyond myself...Don't ever think that since I wasn't around that I didn't love you. You were conceived of love and I came to this terrible place for love...Please understand that I had to be gone so that I could take care of my family...Do me a favor. After you tuck Toad and Bean in, give them hugs and kisses from me. Go outside and look at the stars and count them. Don't forget to smile."
Pfc. Givens, assigned to Second Squadron, Third Armored Calvary Regiment out of Fort Carson, Colorado, died in a tank accident on May 1, 2003. He was 34 years old.
Friday, November 05, 2004
Thursday, November 04, 2004
Technology Thursday.
Planning on buying a new computer this holiday season? Ever wondered how to transfer your data from the old PC to the new one? Walter Mossberg has some help for you in today's Wall Street Journal.
The best product that he has found for moving data from one PC to another is Detto IntelliMover. The same company makes a product called Move2Mac that can transfer your data from a PC to a Mac.
If you need to move more than files try Alohabob PC Relocator from Eisenworld. It works for PCs.
Check out the Wall Street Journal's free Personal Technology Website.
The best product that he has found for moving data from one PC to another is Detto IntelliMover. The same company makes a product called Move2Mac that can transfer your data from a PC to a Mac.
If you need to move more than files try Alohabob PC Relocator from Eisenworld. It works for PCs.
Check out the Wall Street Journal's free Personal Technology Website.
Delphi on Election 2004.
Wow, what a great election. Over the next week we will look at the election results and break down how everything came out, basically this much input, that much output.
We almost called the Senate race exactly, (and with such a simple model; Democratic vote percent increases by 3.5% during Prez election cycles, always add 7.5% to GOP vote percent for polling errors, blam you get a net positive of 4% for the GOP candidate) the 2008 race should be great, we are looking at an open GOP seat (Allard won't be running) and a open Prez race.
The House races had no real surprises. Even with Jared Polis, the twenty something internet millionare, pouring money into ads against Beauprez and Musgrave, the Democrats only picked up the 3rd (Walcher surged at the end, but our initial projection was almost spot on, goes to show that you shouldn't tweak a econometric model with soft variables, such as our "surge factor" that pushed the 3rd into the toss-up category. We still called all the races correctly.
The State Senate was within our predicted range. Look for a huge battle in two years to take back the chamber by the GOP. The lesson must be learned that Colorado voters split tickets, they vote for the person, not the party. The GOP cannot afford to underfund their State Senate candidates. Our initial numbers on these races show that the Democrats outspent the GOP by a margin of 2:1, and for that they only gained a cumulative win differential (Dem vote % - GOP vote %) of 1.2%. They will have some massive fights ahead if they hope to keep the State Senate for longer than two years.
The State House was a complete surprise. We forcasted a 2 seat pickup, not a five seat loss. Haven't even started to crunch the numbers. But we are going to find a way to account for all the independent group numbers.
What to look for in 2006, the Governor's seat, State Senate and State House.
Our early projections will start this spring.
Watch for some major gridlock this spring, as the GOP minority and Governor Owens will try to force the Dems to push more radical bills that will be vetoed and used in 2006 as campaign fodder.
We almost called the Senate race exactly, (and with such a simple model; Democratic vote percent increases by 3.5% during Prez election cycles, always add 7.5% to GOP vote percent for polling errors, blam you get a net positive of 4% for the GOP candidate) the 2008 race should be great, we are looking at an open GOP seat (Allard won't be running) and a open Prez race.
The House races had no real surprises. Even with Jared Polis, the twenty something internet millionare, pouring money into ads against Beauprez and Musgrave, the Democrats only picked up the 3rd (Walcher surged at the end, but our initial projection was almost spot on, goes to show that you shouldn't tweak a econometric model with soft variables, such as our "surge factor" that pushed the 3rd into the toss-up category. We still called all the races correctly.
The State Senate was within our predicted range. Look for a huge battle in two years to take back the chamber by the GOP. The lesson must be learned that Colorado voters split tickets, they vote for the person, not the party. The GOP cannot afford to underfund their State Senate candidates. Our initial numbers on these races show that the Democrats outspent the GOP by a margin of 2:1, and for that they only gained a cumulative win differential (Dem vote % - GOP vote %) of 1.2%. They will have some massive fights ahead if they hope to keep the State Senate for longer than two years.
The State House was a complete surprise. We forcasted a 2 seat pickup, not a five seat loss. Haven't even started to crunch the numbers. But we are going to find a way to account for all the independent group numbers.
What to look for in 2006, the Governor's seat, State Senate and State House.
Our early projections will start this spring.
Watch for some major gridlock this spring, as the GOP minority and Governor Owens will try to force the Dems to push more radical bills that will be vetoed and used in 2006 as campaign fodder.
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Colorado Election Results Mixed Bag for GOP, MHD.
The following is cross posted at Polstate where I blogged the election live.
President: Bush (R)
Senate: Salazar (D)
House: out of 7, 3 (D), 3 (R), one to close to call (3rd).
Major Setbacks for GOP in the State Senate, as of this writing GOP may lose control of the State Senate by one vote.
Also in the State House, the unthinkable, a major Democratic coup, Dems knock off at least five GOP seats, may take State House for first time in over a generation.
9:15 CBS Projects Colorado For Bush.
11:00 Rocky Mountain News Projects Salazar the winner of Colorado's Senate Seat.
11:02 Drudge Calls the Election for Bush. GOP Headquarters went wild.
As of midnight.
President: MHD: Bush. Results: Bush (R) 53%, Kerry (D) 46%. 70% reporting.
U.S. Senate: MHD: Salazar (D) 50.3%, Coors (D) 48.3%. Results: Salazar 51%, Coors 48%. 82% reporting.
U.S. House:
District 1: MHD: Degette. Results: Degette (D) 73%, Chicas (R) 24%. 88% reporting.
District 2: MHD: Udall. Results: Udall (D) 63%, Hackman (R) 34%. 54% reporting.
District 3: MHD: Toss-up. Results: Salazar (D) 49%, Walcher (R) 47%. 67% reporting.
District 4: MHD:Musgrave. Results: Musgrave (R) 51%, Matsunaka (D) 44%. 68% reporting.
District 5: MHD: Hefley. Results: Hefley (R) 70%, Hardee (D) 27%. 91% reporting.
District 6: MHD: Tancredo. Results: Tancredo (R) 59%, Conti (D) 38%. 99% reporting.
District 7: MHD: Beauprez. Results: Beauprez (R) 55%, Thomas (D) 42%. 98% reporting.
State Senate: MHD: GOP 17-20, Dems 15-18. Results: GOP 17, Dems 17, Toss-up 1. GOP has lost SD 28, only if Hume wins in SD 17 can they hold the State Senate. As of this writing zero % reporting.
State House: MHD: GOP 39, Dems 26. Results GOP 30, Dems 32, Toss-up 3. Reports coming in over 850 KOA, the GOP may also lose the State House for the first time since Watergate, Dems have picked up HD 18, 29, 31, 61 and 64. HD 48, 50 and 56 are still either to close to call or don't have enough results in. Either way this is a major set back for the Republican State Party.
State Wide Ballot Issues:
Amendment 34 - Developer Lawsuit Reform: MHD:For 36%, Against 64%. Results: For 23%, Against 76%. 83% reporting.
Amendment 35 - Raise Taxes on Cigarettes: MHD:For 55%, Against 45%. Results: For 61%, Against 38%. 83% reporting.
Amendment 36 - Electoral College Reform: MHD:For 25%, Against 75%. Results: For 34%, Against 65%. 83% reporting.
Amendment 37 - Renewable Energy Mandates: MHD:For 46%, Against 54%. Results: For 52%, Against 47%. 80% reporting.
Ref. A: MHD: Pass. Results: For 39%, Against 60%. 80% reporting.
Ref. B: MHD: Pass. Results: For 69%, Against 30%. 80% reporting.
Denver Metro Items.
Ref. 4A (FasTracks): MHD: For 46%, Against 54%. Results: For 58%, Against 41%. 71% reporting.
Ref. 4B (SCFD): MHD: Pass. Results: For 65%, Against 34%. 85% reporting.
State Senate Seat By Seat (Campaign Funds for Select Races)
SD 1 Eastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 2 Southeastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 3 Northwest Pueblo County (D)
No Election
SD 4 Lake, Park, Teller, Douglas Counties and northwestern El Paso County (Leans Rep)
Jim Miller (D) $31,055 vs. Tom Weins $45,235(R) Projected Winner (R)
SD 5 South Central Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 6 Southwestern Colorado (D)
No Election
SD 7 Mesa County (R)
No Election
SD 8 Northwestern Colorado (Weak Rep)
Inc. Jack Taylor $40,080(R) vs. Jay Fetcher $69,381(D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 9 Northern El Paso County (R)
No Election
SD 10 Eastern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Ron May (R) unopposed
SD 11 Central Colorado Springs (R)
No Election
SD 12 Southern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Andy McElhany (R) vs. Robert Herzfeld (Lib.) no Dem. Projected Winner (R)
SD 13 Most of Weld County (R)
No Election
SD 14 Ft. Collins (Toss-up)
Bob Bacon $161,098(D) vs. Ray Martinez $1,425(R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 15 Larimer County except Ft. Collins (R)
No Election
SD 16 North central mountains (D)
No Election
SD 17 Louisville, Lafayette (Toss-up)
Brandon Shaffer $117,421(D) vs. Sandy Hume $68,065(R) Projected Winner (Not enough data)
SD 18 Boulder (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ron Tupa (D) vs. Krista Poch (R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 19 Arvada, Westminster (Weak Dem)
Inc. Sue Windels $115,701(D) vs. Jessica Corry $59,425(R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 20 Golden, Wheat Ridge (D)
No Election
SD 21 Lakewood (Leans Dem)
Inc. Deanna Hanna $125,858(D) vs. Tori Merritts Unknown(R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 22 Southern Jefferson County (R)
No Election
SD 23 Southern Weld County (Leans Rep)
Shawn Mitchell $39,345(R) vs. Curt Darius Williams $10,334(D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 24 Federal Heights (D)
No Election
SD 25 Adams County (Leans Dem)
Inc. Stephanie Takis (D) vs. Kevin Blount (R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 26 Englewood, Littleton (Leans Rep)
Inc. Jim Dyer $15,584(R) vs. Jared Ingwalson (D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 27 Eastern Arapahoe County (Leans Rep)
Inc. Nancy Spence $36,245(R) vs. Lisa Love $2,476(D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 28 Southern Aurora (Toss-up)
Inc. Bruce Cairnes $61,210(R) vs. Suzanne Williams $136,991(D) Projected Winner (D)
SD 29 Northen Aurora (Safe Dem)
Inc. Bob Hagedorn (D) vs. Mike Martin (R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 30 Parker, Highlands Ranch (R)
No Election
SD 31 Central, Northwest Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Jennifer Veiga unopposed Projected Winner (D)
SD 32 South Denver (Safe Dem)
No Election
SD 33 Northeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Peter Groff unopposed Projected Winner (D)
SD 34 West Denver (D)
No Election
SD 35 Southeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ken Gordon (D) vs. Ron Olson (R) Projected Winner (D)
President: Bush (R)
Senate: Salazar (D)
House: out of 7, 3 (D), 3 (R), one to close to call (3rd).
Major Setbacks for GOP in the State Senate, as of this writing GOP may lose control of the State Senate by one vote.
Also in the State House, the unthinkable, a major Democratic coup, Dems knock off at least five GOP seats, may take State House for first time in over a generation.
9:15 CBS Projects Colorado For Bush.
11:00 Rocky Mountain News Projects Salazar the winner of Colorado's Senate Seat.
11:02 Drudge Calls the Election for Bush. GOP Headquarters went wild.
As of midnight.
President: MHD: Bush. Results: Bush (R) 53%, Kerry (D) 46%. 70% reporting.
U.S. Senate: MHD: Salazar (D) 50.3%, Coors (D) 48.3%. Results: Salazar 51%, Coors 48%. 82% reporting.
U.S. House:
District 1: MHD: Degette. Results: Degette (D) 73%, Chicas (R) 24%. 88% reporting.
District 2: MHD: Udall. Results: Udall (D) 63%, Hackman (R) 34%. 54% reporting.
District 3: MHD: Toss-up. Results: Salazar (D) 49%, Walcher (R) 47%. 67% reporting.
District 4: MHD:Musgrave. Results: Musgrave (R) 51%, Matsunaka (D) 44%. 68% reporting.
District 5: MHD: Hefley. Results: Hefley (R) 70%, Hardee (D) 27%. 91% reporting.
District 6: MHD: Tancredo. Results: Tancredo (R) 59%, Conti (D) 38%. 99% reporting.
District 7: MHD: Beauprez. Results: Beauprez (R) 55%, Thomas (D) 42%. 98% reporting.
State Senate: MHD: GOP 17-20, Dems 15-18. Results: GOP 17, Dems 17, Toss-up 1. GOP has lost SD 28, only if Hume wins in SD 17 can they hold the State Senate. As of this writing zero % reporting.
State House: MHD: GOP 39, Dems 26. Results GOP 30, Dems 32, Toss-up 3. Reports coming in over 850 KOA, the GOP may also lose the State House for the first time since Watergate, Dems have picked up HD 18, 29, 31, 61 and 64. HD 48, 50 and 56 are still either to close to call or don't have enough results in. Either way this is a major set back for the Republican State Party.
State Wide Ballot Issues:
Amendment 34 - Developer Lawsuit Reform: MHD:For 36%, Against 64%. Results: For 23%, Against 76%. 83% reporting.
Amendment 35 - Raise Taxes on Cigarettes: MHD:For 55%, Against 45%. Results: For 61%, Against 38%. 83% reporting.
Amendment 36 - Electoral College Reform: MHD:For 25%, Against 75%. Results: For 34%, Against 65%. 83% reporting.
Amendment 37 - Renewable Energy Mandates: MHD:For 46%, Against 54%. Results: For 52%, Against 47%. 80% reporting.
Ref. A: MHD: Pass. Results: For 39%, Against 60%. 80% reporting.
Ref. B: MHD: Pass. Results: For 69%, Against 30%. 80% reporting.
Denver Metro Items.
Ref. 4A (FasTracks): MHD: For 46%, Against 54%. Results: For 58%, Against 41%. 71% reporting.
Ref. 4B (SCFD): MHD: Pass. Results: For 65%, Against 34%. 85% reporting.
State Senate Seat By Seat (Campaign Funds for Select Races)
SD 1 Eastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 2 Southeastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 3 Northwest Pueblo County (D)
No Election
SD 4 Lake, Park, Teller, Douglas Counties and northwestern El Paso County (Leans Rep)
Jim Miller (D) $31,055 vs. Tom Weins $45,235(R) Projected Winner (R)
SD 5 South Central Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 6 Southwestern Colorado (D)
No Election
SD 7 Mesa County (R)
No Election
SD 8 Northwestern Colorado (Weak Rep)
Inc. Jack Taylor $40,080(R) vs. Jay Fetcher $69,381(D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 9 Northern El Paso County (R)
No Election
SD 10 Eastern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Ron May (R) unopposed
SD 11 Central Colorado Springs (R)
No Election
SD 12 Southern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Andy McElhany (R) vs. Robert Herzfeld (Lib.) no Dem. Projected Winner (R)
SD 13 Most of Weld County (R)
No Election
SD 14 Ft. Collins (Toss-up)
Bob Bacon $161,098(D) vs. Ray Martinez $1,425(R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 15 Larimer County except Ft. Collins (R)
No Election
SD 16 North central mountains (D)
No Election
SD 17 Louisville, Lafayette (Toss-up)
Brandon Shaffer $117,421(D) vs. Sandy Hume $68,065(R) Projected Winner (Not enough data)
SD 18 Boulder (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ron Tupa (D) vs. Krista Poch (R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 19 Arvada, Westminster (Weak Dem)
Inc. Sue Windels $115,701(D) vs. Jessica Corry $59,425(R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 20 Golden, Wheat Ridge (D)
No Election
SD 21 Lakewood (Leans Dem)
Inc. Deanna Hanna $125,858(D) vs. Tori Merritts Unknown(R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 22 Southern Jefferson County (R)
No Election
SD 23 Southern Weld County (Leans Rep)
Shawn Mitchell $39,345(R) vs. Curt Darius Williams $10,334(D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 24 Federal Heights (D)
No Election
SD 25 Adams County (Leans Dem)
Inc. Stephanie Takis (D) vs. Kevin Blount (R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 26 Englewood, Littleton (Leans Rep)
Inc. Jim Dyer $15,584(R) vs. Jared Ingwalson (D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 27 Eastern Arapahoe County (Leans Rep)
Inc. Nancy Spence $36,245(R) vs. Lisa Love $2,476(D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 28 Southern Aurora (Toss-up)
Inc. Bruce Cairnes $61,210(R) vs. Suzanne Williams $136,991(D) Projected Winner (D)
SD 29 Northen Aurora (Safe Dem)
Inc. Bob Hagedorn (D) vs. Mike Martin (R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 30 Parker, Highlands Ranch (R)
No Election
SD 31 Central, Northwest Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Jennifer Veiga unopposed Projected Winner (D)
SD 32 South Denver (Safe Dem)
No Election
SD 33 Northeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Peter Groff unopposed Projected Winner (D)
SD 34 West Denver (D)
No Election
SD 35 Southeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ken Gordon (D) vs. Ron Olson (R) Projected Winner (D)
Monday, November 01, 2004
Final Projections.
President Bush 273, Kerry 265. GOP Hold.
U.S. Senate 52 Republicans, 47 Democrats and 1 Ind. GOP Hold.
U.S. House 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats (including Sanders of Vermont). GOP Hold.
Colorado Senate Salazar (D) 50.3%, Coors (R) 48.3%. Dem Pickup.
Colorado House CD 1(D) Strong Dem, CD 2(D) Strong Dem, CD 3(Toss-up) , CD 4(R) Leans GOP, CD 5(R) Strong GOP, CD 6(R) Strong GOP, CD 7(R) Weak GOP.
Final Projection for the 3rd, a tie of 47%-47%. As such it is a toss-up, but all the momentum is for the GOP.
Delphi on the Colorado State Legislative Races.
State Senate 17-20 Republicans, 15-18 Democrats. Leans GOP.
State House 39 Republicans, 26 Democrats. GOP Hold.
State Wide (Except 4A and 4B) Ballot Issues. (Confidence Levels)
Amendment 34 - Developer Lawsuit Reforms - For 36%, Against 64%. (Landslide)
Amendment 35 - Raise Taxes on Cigarettes - For 55%, Against 45%. (Weak)
Amendment 36 - Reforming Colorado's Electorial College Vote - For 25%, Against 75%. (Landslide)
Amendment 37 - Renewable Energy Mandates - For 46%, Against 54%. (Weak)
FasTracks (Ref. 4A) - For 46%, Against 54%. (Weak)
SCFD (Ref. 4B) - For , Against . (Landslide)
Ref. A - Pass (Landslide)
Ref. B - Pass (Landslide)
U.S. Senate 52 Republicans, 47 Democrats and 1 Ind. GOP Hold.
U.S. House 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats (including Sanders of Vermont). GOP Hold.
Colorado Senate Salazar (D) 50.3%, Coors (R) 48.3%. Dem Pickup.
Colorado House CD 1(D) Strong Dem, CD 2(D) Strong Dem, CD 3(Toss-up) , CD 4(R) Leans GOP, CD 5(R) Strong GOP, CD 6(R) Strong GOP, CD 7(R) Weak GOP.
Final Projection for the 3rd, a tie of 47%-47%. As such it is a toss-up, but all the momentum is for the GOP.
Delphi on the Colorado State Legislative Races.
State Senate 17-20 Republicans, 15-18 Democrats. Leans GOP.
State House 39 Republicans, 26 Democrats. GOP Hold.
State Wide (Except 4A and 4B) Ballot Issues. (Confidence Levels)
Amendment 34 - Developer Lawsuit Reforms - For 36%, Against 64%. (Landslide)
Amendment 35 - Raise Taxes on Cigarettes - For 55%, Against 45%. (Weak)
Amendment 36 - Reforming Colorado's Electorial College Vote - For 25%, Against 75%. (Landslide)
Amendment 37 - Renewable Energy Mandates - For 46%, Against 54%. (Weak)
FasTracks (Ref. 4A) - For 46%, Against 54%. (Weak)
SCFD (Ref. 4B) - For , Against . (Landslide)
Ref. A - Pass (Landslide)
Ref. B - Pass (Landslide)
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
Technology Tuesday.
Taken from Lee Gomes "Portals" 10/04/2004 in the Wall Street Journal.
"What is it about the future that leaves us unable to ever quite guess how its going to turn out? The question comes up, this time, because of the recent, much discussed ascent of Web logs, or blogs. The blogging phenomenon illustrates how some very smart people ended up being both very right and very wrong about a future just beyond the horizon.
A year ago, blogs -outside of the small circle of people who actually wrote and read them- were regarded as the daily diaries of peole with no real lives to chronicle in the first place. No more...For historians of technical predictions, blogs are noteworthy because of what the reveal aobut the evolution of something called XML.
XML stands for Extensible Markup Language. It's basically a format that two computers can use to exchange information.
Five or so years ago, XML was going to be technology's Next Big Thing. If you remember Microsoft's .Net initiative...XML was the catalyst the wold enable .Net...
Fast forword now to something called RSS, or Really Simple Syndication, with is a technology that bloggers use to, in a manner of speaking, broadcast their writing throughout the Internet. RSS, it turns out, is actually a kind of XML.
Because of blogging, RSS is very hot right now, and it's spreading quickly...Last week, Yahoo gave RSS a big embrace: If something is available in RSS, you'll be able to put it on your My Yahoo page.
In other words, thanks to blogs, XML-in the form of RSS- has finally arrived...
One issue to watch with the current growth spurt of RSS is what it will do to traditional Web economics. For example, some political junkies...spend much of their time these days using Web site called Bloglines to follow election oriented blogs. Because of its felicitous use of RSS technology, Bloglines will often let you read all of the entries from some very popular blogs without leaving the bloglines site- in other words, without vistiong each blogs Web pages individually.
What will happen when bloggers realize that RSS may lead to fewer eyeballs at their sites?
"What is it about the future that leaves us unable to ever quite guess how its going to turn out? The question comes up, this time, because of the recent, much discussed ascent of Web logs, or blogs. The blogging phenomenon illustrates how some very smart people ended up being both very right and very wrong about a future just beyond the horizon.
A year ago, blogs -outside of the small circle of people who actually wrote and read them- were regarded as the daily diaries of peole with no real lives to chronicle in the first place. No more...For historians of technical predictions, blogs are noteworthy because of what the reveal aobut the evolution of something called XML.
XML stands for Extensible Markup Language. It's basically a format that two computers can use to exchange information.
Five or so years ago, XML was going to be technology's Next Big Thing. If you remember Microsoft's .Net initiative...XML was the catalyst the wold enable .Net...
Fast forword now to something called RSS, or Really Simple Syndication, with is a technology that bloggers use to, in a manner of speaking, broadcast their writing throughout the Internet. RSS, it turns out, is actually a kind of XML.
Because of blogging, RSS is very hot right now, and it's spreading quickly...Last week, Yahoo gave RSS a big embrace: If something is available in RSS, you'll be able to put it on your My Yahoo page.
In other words, thanks to blogs, XML-in the form of RSS- has finally arrived...
One issue to watch with the current growth spurt of RSS is what it will do to traditional Web economics. For example, some political junkies...spend much of their time these days using Web site called Bloglines to follow election oriented blogs. Because of its felicitous use of RSS technology, Bloglines will often let you read all of the entries from some very popular blogs without leaving the bloglines site- in other words, without vistiong each blogs Web pages individually.
What will happen when bloggers realize that RSS may lead to fewer eyeballs at their sites?
Monday, October 11, 2004
Delphi on Colorado State-Wide Referenda.
MHD is currently working on a universal model to predict these state wide issues. If I can finish tweaking it this week, you should see something much like the CAPM that you may have met in Biz School.
If you see any links missing, or want me to add your site, tell me. If you know of any poll I may have missed, tell me.
Amendment 34. Pro side Committee to Take Back Our Property Rights . Con side Coloradans for Responsible Reform.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
9/14-18-Cirulli-43%-31%
9/23-POS-44%-41%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-22%-64%
Amendment 35. Pro side Citizens for a Healthier Colorado. Against a group called "Protect Our Constitution, Vote No on 35" which doesn't seem to have a website and The Independece Institute a libertarian think tank which opposes most tax increases.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
10/8-SUSA-62%-36%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-58%-35%
Amendment 36. Pro side All Votes Matter. Against Coloradoans Against a Really Stupid Idea and Tyroblog's 86 36, a blog devoted to defeating Amendment 36.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
9/22-RMN/News4-47%-35%
10/6-Mason/Dixon-35%-44%
10/8-SUSA-45%-44%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-31%-55%
Amendment 37. Pro side Coloradans for Clean Energy. Against Citizens for Sensible Energy Choices.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
9/12-13-POS-74%-19%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-45%-39%
Ref. 4-A "FasTracks". Not state wide, only in Denver area. Pro side FasTracks Yes!. Against Taxpayers Against Congestion and The Independence Institute.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
12/15-16-POS-63%-33%
4/30-Hill-69%-30%
9/12-13-POS-62%-32%
10/8-Hill-52%-25%
FasTracks Yes! released a internal poll from the same time as the Denver Metro Chamber's Hill poll, but until some internals are available, I'm loath to add it.
10/8-Mason-Dixon-54%-33%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-50%39%
If you see any links missing, or want me to add your site, tell me. If you know of any poll I may have missed, tell me.
Amendment 34. Pro side Committee to Take Back Our Property Rights . Con side Coloradans for Responsible Reform.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
9/14-18-Cirulli-43%-31%
9/23-POS-44%-41%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-22%-64%
Amendment 35. Pro side Citizens for a Healthier Colorado. Against a group called "Protect Our Constitution, Vote No on 35" which doesn't seem to have a website and The Independece Institute a libertarian think tank which opposes most tax increases.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
10/8-SUSA-62%-36%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-58%-35%
Amendment 36. Pro side All Votes Matter. Against Coloradoans Against a Really Stupid Idea and Tyroblog's 86 36, a blog devoted to defeating Amendment 36.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
9/22-RMN/News4-47%-35%
10/6-Mason/Dixon-35%-44%
10/8-SUSA-45%-44%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-31%-55%
Amendment 37. Pro side Coloradans for Clean Energy. Against Citizens for Sensible Energy Choices.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
9/12-13-POS-74%-19%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-45%-39%
Ref. 4-A "FasTracks". Not state wide, only in Denver area. Pro side FasTracks Yes!. Against Taxpayers Against Congestion and The Independence Institute.
Past Poll Results:
Date-Firm-For-Against
12/15-16-POS-63%-33%
4/30-Hill-69%-30%
9/12-13-POS-62%-32%
10/8-Hill-52%-25%
FasTracks Yes! released a internal poll from the same time as the Denver Metro Chamber's Hill poll, but until some internals are available, I'm loath to add it.
10/8-Mason-Dixon-54%-33%
10/25-27-Mason-Dixon-50%39%
Delphi on Colorado, Monday updates.
This week we will finish our links to Colorado Races.
Monday: Links and averages for state-wide issues.
Tuesday: Technology Tuesday and finish links to State Legislative Races. We will have links to all State Senate Races. Our links to State House Races will only be for battle-ground districts.
Wednesday: Wictory Wednesday and our new and improved models for state-wide issues and for the congressional district races.
Thursday: Technology Thursday and predictions for all State Senate races.
Friday: Financial Friday. We find great articles on personal finance, you use them to increase your wealth.
Monday: Links and averages for state-wide issues.
Tuesday: Technology Tuesday and finish links to State Legislative Races. We will have links to all State Senate Races. Our links to State House Races will only be for battle-ground districts.
Wednesday: Wictory Wednesday and our new and improved models for state-wide issues and for the congressional district races.
Thursday: Technology Thursday and predictions for all State Senate races.
Friday: Financial Friday. We find great articles on personal finance, you use them to increase your wealth.
Friday, October 08, 2004
Updated Presidential and Senate Predictions.
We have added Real Clear Politics to our electoral vote average. The new averages (dividing tossups in half) gives Bush a lead of 283 electoral votes and Kerry trails with 255 electoral votes. The only site to update its figures was Electoral-Vote.com, its old figures were Bush-285 and Kerry-232 with 17 electoral votes tied. Electoral-Vote.com now has Kerry leading 280-239 with 19 electoral votes tied.
Our old figures were Bush-293, Kerry 245 on 10/6/2004. Bush has lost 10 EV in the last two days.
We have also updated our Colorado Senate race figures. Coors now leads Salazar 50.33% to 48.66%. The new USA Today poll, which shows Salazar with a massive lead has pulled the race into basically a dead-heat.
Our old figures were Coors 53.2%, Salazar 46.6% on 9/28/2004.
Our old figures were Bush-293, Kerry 245 on 10/6/2004. Bush has lost 10 EV in the last two days.
We have also updated our Colorado Senate race figures. Coors now leads Salazar 50.33% to 48.66%. The new USA Today poll, which shows Salazar with a massive lead has pulled the race into basically a dead-heat.
Our old figures were Coors 53.2%, Salazar 46.6% on 9/28/2004.
Delphi on the Second Presidential Debate.
With Bush and Kerry dead-locked in the polls here in Colorado, scores of CU students have decided that the best way to deal with the close election is the have some fun.
Your correspondent will (at great personal risk being a Republican in Boulder) attend several of these "Debate" parties. It seems that a new drinking game has sprung up around the presidential race. Every time either candidate says "Iraq" everyone has to take a drink. From what I understand, that doesn’t mean a sip, but a shot or an entire beer.
Hopefully I can avoid being in any house when foreign policy comes up, but if I am, I'll be taking pictures to document the student's rebellion against the administration's crackdown on drinking, and the constant badgering from liberals and conservatives alike, ie "Are you registered to vote?"
Cross posted at Polstate.com, which also has a open thread for the debate, feel free to go over there and debate the debate, nonpartisan site with lots of traffic.
Your correspondent will (at great personal risk being a Republican in Boulder) attend several of these "Debate" parties. It seems that a new drinking game has sprung up around the presidential race. Every time either candidate says "Iraq" everyone has to take a drink. From what I understand, that doesn’t mean a sip, but a shot or an entire beer.
Hopefully I can avoid being in any house when foreign policy comes up, but if I am, I'll be taking pictures to document the student's rebellion against the administration's crackdown on drinking, and the constant badgering from liberals and conservatives alike, ie "Are you registered to vote?"
Cross posted at Polstate.com, which also has a open thread for the debate, feel free to go over there and debate the debate, nonpartisan site with lots of traffic.
Thursday, October 07, 2004
Wictory Wednesday. Focus on SD 19.
State Senate District 19 (Westminster and Arvada) is our featured legislative race this cycle. It pits incumbent Sue Windels (D) against Jessica Corry (R).
This district was, until four years ago, represented by the solidly conservative Jim Congrove, who now is running for Jeffco Commissioner after defeating a rare Republican RTD Director, Wally Pulliam.
Jessica Corry works at the Independence Institute, a libertarian think tank in Golden that has been the spring board for such Colorado conservative icons as Jon Caldara, Mike Rosen, Tom Tancredo and Bill Armstrong. Jessica heads up the Campus Accountability Project, an effort “to serve as an educational resource on free speech, ideological diversity, and racial discrimination, and to operate as a watch dog, seeking to ensure that universities are observing the individual rights of faculty, staff, and students.”
She faces Sue Windels (who Joe will be interviewing in a week or so for balance). Senator Windels, who won victory last time by less than the margin of the Libertarian candidate, has not voted like the moderate she would need to be to keep the seat, instead she has voted like a true liberal. The GOP won her State House seat back when she went to the Senate, its time to bring this seat back to the GOP.
MHD chose this seat because it is the home of the most vulnerable incumbent. It also represents the huge difference in ideology between the two candidates. Windels has raised $80,551 so far. Her top five donors are the DSCF Democratic Senate C Fund: $5,000, JCEA-PAC Small Donor Committee:$2,000, Colorado Professional Firefighters SDC: $2,000, Pipefitters Local 208: $2,000, Colorado AFL-CIO Nonparisian: $2,000. A lot of Union money and small donor committee money coming in here.
Corry has so far raised $42,860, her top five contributors are herself: $8,000, Steve Durham: $400, Chris Drummond: $200, Joe Smith: $200, Linda Corry: $200. Besides herself, her largest contributors are small personal donations. She needs help if she is going to win. Donate here. I’ve put together four volunteers who are going to help me walk her district with her. I challenge everyone who reads this and is a GOP partisan, donate $40 dollars to Jessica, then e-mail me or post your donation. Lets set a goal of $400. I just need nine other people to pitch in to reach that goal.
Oh, and trust me, Joe is working on something for our liberal readers, Colorado Republicans have got to get their butts in gear; we’re slacking.
This district was, until four years ago, represented by the solidly conservative Jim Congrove, who now is running for Jeffco Commissioner after defeating a rare Republican RTD Director, Wally Pulliam.
Jessica Corry works at the Independence Institute, a libertarian think tank in Golden that has been the spring board for such Colorado conservative icons as Jon Caldara, Mike Rosen, Tom Tancredo and Bill Armstrong. Jessica heads up the Campus Accountability Project, an effort “to serve as an educational resource on free speech, ideological diversity, and racial discrimination, and to operate as a watch dog, seeking to ensure that universities are observing the individual rights of faculty, staff, and students.”
She faces Sue Windels (who Joe will be interviewing in a week or so for balance). Senator Windels, who won victory last time by less than the margin of the Libertarian candidate, has not voted like the moderate she would need to be to keep the seat, instead she has voted like a true liberal. The GOP won her State House seat back when she went to the Senate, its time to bring this seat back to the GOP.
MHD chose this seat because it is the home of the most vulnerable incumbent. It also represents the huge difference in ideology between the two candidates. Windels has raised $80,551 so far. Her top five donors are the DSCF Democratic Senate C Fund: $5,000, JCEA-PAC Small Donor Committee:$2,000, Colorado Professional Firefighters SDC: $2,000, Pipefitters Local 208: $2,000, Colorado AFL-CIO Nonparisian: $2,000. A lot of Union money and small donor committee money coming in here.
Corry has so far raised $42,860, her top five contributors are herself: $8,000, Steve Durham: $400, Chris Drummond: $200, Joe Smith: $200, Linda Corry: $200. Besides herself, her largest contributors are small personal donations. She needs help if she is going to win. Donate here. I’ve put together four volunteers who are going to help me walk her district with her. I challenge everyone who reads this and is a GOP partisan, donate $40 dollars to Jessica, then e-mail me or post your donation. Lets set a goal of $400. I just need nine other people to pitch in to reach that goal.
Oh, and trust me, Joe is working on something for our liberal readers, Colorado Republicans have got to get their butts in gear; we’re slacking.
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Delphi on the Presidential Race.
Final Update: 11/01/2004
Our final average for the 2004 election is in. Bush should narrowly beat Kerry 273 to 265. In the popular vote, the averages predict a small Bush victory of 49.66% to Kerry's 48.35%.
My personal projection, it won't be that close. We will know by about midnight mountain time who the winner is.
Update: 10/11/2004. Three updates today. Election Projection is now forecasting a narrow Bush win. Bush 274, Kerry 264. Electoral-Vote.com is forecasting a Kerry win with Kerry getting 280 electoral votes and Bush getting 254 (NH is a toss-up). Real Clear Politics is forecasting Bush getting 264, Kerry getting 220, with 54 electoral votes in tossup states.
The Crystal Ball and Federal Review have no updates.
As such the new totals are Bush 274+256+295+284+264+27/5 = 280. Kerry 264+282+243+254+220+27/5 = 258.
On 10/6/2004 the average was Bush 293, Kerry 245. Two days later it was Bush 283, Kerry 255. As it stands now, Bush has lost 3 electoral votes since 10/9/04 and Kerry has picked up three.
Original Post: 10/06/2004
MHD isn't even going to try to do the heavy lifting in the Presidential race. Instead, we will update on a regular basis the average electoral college numbers from Election Projection, Electoral-Vote.com, Federal Review and The Crystal Ball. Each site is weighted the same.
If you know of any other sites that deserve to be included in the average, post it, we are slaves to our readers.
Our final average for the 2004 election is in. Bush should narrowly beat Kerry 273 to 265. In the popular vote, the averages predict a small Bush victory of 49.66% to Kerry's 48.35%.
My personal projection, it won't be that close. We will know by about midnight mountain time who the winner is.
Update: 10/11/2004. Three updates today. Election Projection is now forecasting a narrow Bush win. Bush 274, Kerry 264. Electoral-Vote.com is forecasting a Kerry win with Kerry getting 280 electoral votes and Bush getting 254 (NH is a toss-up). Real Clear Politics is forecasting Bush getting 264, Kerry getting 220, with 54 electoral votes in tossup states.
The Crystal Ball and Federal Review have no updates.
As such the new totals are Bush 274+256+295+284+264+27/5 = 280. Kerry 264+282+243+254+220+27/5 = 258.
On 10/6/2004 the average was Bush 293, Kerry 245. Two days later it was Bush 283, Kerry 255. As it stands now, Bush has lost 3 electoral votes since 10/9/04 and Kerry has picked up three.
Original Post: 10/06/2004
MHD isn't even going to try to do the heavy lifting in the Presidential race. Instead, we will update on a regular basis the average electoral college numbers from Election Projection, Electoral-Vote.com, Federal Review and The Crystal Ball. Each site is weighted the same.
If you know of any other sites that deserve to be included in the average, post it, we are slaves to our readers.
This week at MHD.
This week MHD will focus on one very important thing, making the site more user friendly. In the pursuit of this, we will be adding links to nearly all of the candidates in the Colorado legislative races and links to the ballot issues.
Wictory Wednesday will come off as usual.
Thursday will be "Technology Thursday" with some great links to resources that will help you take advantage of the future of radio and cleaning up that messy pile of business cards in your desk drawer.
Sometime during the week we will add in the links to the legislative races, ballot issues and Federal candidates.
Over the weekend we will introduce our new model for predicting races, we still have about a hundred data points to enter, and then we have to teak the model, but by Monday, you should be able to look at predictions for all the Colorado ballot issues and legislative races.
Wictory Wednesday will come off as usual.
Thursday will be "Technology Thursday" with some great links to resources that will help you take advantage of the future of radio and cleaning up that messy pile of business cards in your desk drawer.
Sometime during the week we will add in the links to the legislative races, ballot issues and Federal candidates.
Over the weekend we will introduce our new model for predicting races, we still have about a hundred data points to enter, and then we have to teak the model, but by Monday, you should be able to look at predictions for all the Colorado ballot issues and legislative races.
Friday, October 01, 2004
Delphi on the Colorado Legislative Races.
As it stands now the GOP controls Colorado's State Senate by a single vote. This election the Democrats stand to pick up maybe one seat, but they are defending two very competitive seats. It could break either way.
Best Democratic Projection: Dem. 18, Rep. 17.
Best GOP Projection: Rep. 20, Dem. 15.
Current Estimates: Dem. 15-18, Rep. 17-20. Likely outcome: leans GOP.
Interactive Maps: State Senate Districts Outside the Metro Area.
Metro Denver State Senate Districts.
The Colorado House is safe GOP, it would take a major shift (a la Watergate) for the Democratic party to take control of the State House.
State Senate Seat By Seat:
SD 1 Eastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 2 Southeastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 3 Northwest Pueblo County (D)
No Election
SD 4 Lake, Park, Teller, Douglas Counties and northwestern El Paso County (Leans Rep)
Jim Miller (D) $31,055 vs. Tom Weins $45,235(R)
SD 5 South Central Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 6 Southwestern Colorado (D)
No Election
SD 7 Mesa County (R)
No Election
SD 8 Northwestern Colorado (Weak Rep)
Inc. Jack Taylor $40,080(R) vs. Jay Fetcher $69,381(D)
SD 9 Northern El Paso County (R)
No Election
SD 10 Eastern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Ron May (R) unopposed
SD 11 Central Colorado Springs (R)
No Election
SD 12 Southern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Andy McElhany (R) vs. Robert Herzfeld (Lib.) no Dem.
SD 13 Most of Weld County (R)
No Election
SD 14 Ft. Collins (Toss-up)
Bob Bacon $161,098(D) vs. Ray Martinez $1,425(R)
SD 15 Larimer County except Ft. Collins (R)
No Election
SD 16 North central mountains (D)
No Election
SD 17 Louisville, Lafayette (Toss-up)
Brandon Shaffer $117,421(D) vs. Sandy Hume $68,065(R)
SD 18 Boulder (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ron Tupa (D) vs. Krista Poch (R)
SD 19 Arvada, Westminster (Weak Dem)
Inc. Sue Windels $115,701(D) vs. Jessica Corry $59,425(R)
SD 20 Golden, Wheat Ridge (D)
No Election
SD 21 Lakewood (Leans Dem)
Inc. Deanna Hanna $125,858(D) vs. Tori Merritts Unknown(R)
SD 22 Southern Jefferson County (R)
No Election
SD 23 Southern Weld County (Leans Rep)
Shawn Mitchell $39,345(R) vs. Curt Darius Williams $10,334(D)
SD 24 Federal Heights (D)
No Election
SD 25 Adams County (Leans Dem)
Inc. Stephanie Takis (D) vs. Kevin Blount (R)
SD 26 Englewood, Littleton (Leans Rep)
Inc. Jim Dyer $15,584(R) vs. Jared Ingwalson (D)
SD 27 Eastern Arapahoe County (Leans Rep)
Inc. Nancy Spence $36,245(R) vs. Lisa Love $2,476(D)
SD 28 Southern Aurora (Toss-up)
Inc. Bruce Cairnes $61,210(R) vs. Suzanne Williams $136,991(D)
SD 29 Northen Aurora (Safe Dem)
Inc. Bob Hagedorn (D) vs. Mike Martin (R)
SD 30 Parker, Highlands Ranch (R)
No Election
SD 31 Central, Northwest Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Jennifer Veiga unopposed
SD 32 South Denver (Safe Dem)
No Election
SD 33 Northeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Peter Groff unopposed
SD 34 West Denver (D)
No Election
SD 35 Southeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ken Gordon (D) vs. Ron Olson (R)
State House Seat By Seat:
Use these interactive maps to check on each district.
State House Districts Metro Denver North of Hampden Ave. House Districts 1-9, 22-24, 26, 27, 29, 32, 34, 35, 41 and 42.
State House Districts Southern Front Range, Pueblo to Hampden Ave. House Districts 14-18,20, 21, 25, 28, 36-39, 44 and 47.
State House Districts Northern Front Range, 120th Ave to Wyoming. House Districts 10-13, 31, 33, 48, 51 and 52.
Colorado House Districts Outside of the Front Range. House Districts 65-53, 50, 49, 46, 45, 43, 40, 19.
Best Democratic Projection: Dem. 18, Rep. 17.
Best GOP Projection: Rep. 20, Dem. 15.
Current Estimates: Dem. 15-18, Rep. 17-20. Likely outcome: leans GOP.
Interactive Maps: State Senate Districts Outside the Metro Area.
Metro Denver State Senate Districts.
The Colorado House is safe GOP, it would take a major shift (a la Watergate) for the Democratic party to take control of the State House.
State Senate Seat By Seat:
SD 1 Eastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 2 Southeastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 3 Northwest Pueblo County (D)
No Election
SD 4 Lake, Park, Teller, Douglas Counties and northwestern El Paso County (Leans Rep)
Jim Miller (D) $31,055 vs. Tom Weins $45,235(R)
SD 5 South Central Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 6 Southwestern Colorado (D)
No Election
SD 7 Mesa County (R)
No Election
SD 8 Northwestern Colorado (Weak Rep)
Inc. Jack Taylor $40,080(R) vs. Jay Fetcher $69,381(D)
SD 9 Northern El Paso County (R)
No Election
SD 10 Eastern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Ron May (R) unopposed
SD 11 Central Colorado Springs (R)
No Election
SD 12 Southern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Andy McElhany (R) vs. Robert Herzfeld (Lib.) no Dem.
SD 13 Most of Weld County (R)
No Election
SD 14 Ft. Collins (Toss-up)
Bob Bacon $161,098(D) vs. Ray Martinez $1,425(R)
SD 15 Larimer County except Ft. Collins (R)
No Election
SD 16 North central mountains (D)
No Election
SD 17 Louisville, Lafayette (Toss-up)
Brandon Shaffer $117,421(D) vs. Sandy Hume $68,065(R)
SD 18 Boulder (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ron Tupa (D) vs. Krista Poch (R)
SD 19 Arvada, Westminster (Weak Dem)
Inc. Sue Windels $115,701(D) vs. Jessica Corry $59,425(R)
SD 20 Golden, Wheat Ridge (D)
No Election
SD 21 Lakewood (Leans Dem)
Inc. Deanna Hanna $125,858(D) vs. Tori Merritts Unknown(R)
SD 22 Southern Jefferson County (R)
No Election
SD 23 Southern Weld County (Leans Rep)
Shawn Mitchell $39,345(R) vs. Curt Darius Williams $10,334(D)
SD 24 Federal Heights (D)
No Election
SD 25 Adams County (Leans Dem)
Inc. Stephanie Takis (D) vs. Kevin Blount (R)
SD 26 Englewood, Littleton (Leans Rep)
Inc. Jim Dyer $15,584(R) vs. Jared Ingwalson (D)
SD 27 Eastern Arapahoe County (Leans Rep)
Inc. Nancy Spence $36,245(R) vs. Lisa Love $2,476(D)
SD 28 Southern Aurora (Toss-up)
Inc. Bruce Cairnes $61,210(R) vs. Suzanne Williams $136,991(D)
SD 29 Northen Aurora (Safe Dem)
Inc. Bob Hagedorn (D) vs. Mike Martin (R)
SD 30 Parker, Highlands Ranch (R)
No Election
SD 31 Central, Northwest Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Jennifer Veiga unopposed
SD 32 South Denver (Safe Dem)
No Election
SD 33 Northeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Peter Groff unopposed
SD 34 West Denver (D)
No Election
SD 35 Southeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ken Gordon (D) vs. Ron Olson (R)
State House Seat By Seat:
Use these interactive maps to check on each district.
State House Districts Metro Denver North of Hampden Ave. House Districts 1-9, 22-24, 26, 27, 29, 32, 34, 35, 41 and 42.
State House Districts Southern Front Range, Pueblo to Hampden Ave. House Districts 14-18,20, 21, 25, 28, 36-39, 44 and 47.
State House Districts Northern Front Range, 120th Ave to Wyoming. House Districts 10-13, 31, 33, 48, 51 and 52.
Colorado House Districts Outside of the Front Range. House Districts 65-53, 50, 49, 46, 45, 43, 40, 19.
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