The votes are still being tallied. But we can say one thing about Colorado, it is not a midwestern state. Colorado seems to have changed dramatically over the last decade. It holds little in common with its neighboring states, and it seem to take its political leanings from the West Coast, California and Washington seem like the easiest comparisons.
In fact, to paraphrase Scoop Jackson, every vote you need to win in Colorado you can see from the top of Lookout Mountain.
Wednesday, November 03, 2010
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
2010 Final US Senate Projection.
We project a GOP pickup of eight seats in the US Senate.
Here are the seats listed in order of how likely the pickup is.
Nevada 65%
Colorado 79%
Pennsylvania 90%
Arkansas 95%
Illinois 95%
Indiana 95%
North Dakota 95%
Wisconsin 95%
Other races of note:
Washington projects a Democratic win at about 55% probability. Should be close.
California should not be very close.
Here are the seats listed in order of how likely the pickup is.
Nevada 65%
Colorado 79%
Pennsylvania 90%
Arkansas 95%
Illinois 95%
Indiana 95%
North Dakota 95%
Wisconsin 95%
Other races of note:
Washington projects a Democratic win at about 55% probability. Should be close.
California should not be very close.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Mile High Delphi looks at Obamacare.
We here at Mile High Delphi have four words to say about the Health Care Reform package that is going through congress; Much Ado About Nothing.
Obamacare, as it has become known, is probably unconstitutional, at least several key parts. We cannot find constitutional grounds for the Federal Government forcing private individuals to purchase private insurance. They could just impose a tax, or the states could impose the mandate. Also the accounting gimmicks in the bill make Lehman Brothers look like the bank from It’s a Wonderful Life. In all, the courts will hold up most of the bill from taking effect, at least until after the mid-terms and congress will never have the BALLS to enact the cuts and tax increases that the bill counts on. Our final verdict on the bill, it has been a fool’s errand for the Democratic Party. This whole saga reminds us of the story of Xerxes at the Hellespont. The great Persian king had built a bridge across the river in order to move his troops. A storm washed the bridge out. Xerxes flew into a rage and “he commanded that the Hellespont be struck with three hundred strokes of the whip.” Seriously, he had the river whipped because it wouldn’t bend to his will. It is too early to know if this is an overreach, but this health care bill is starting to look to us like the court packing scheme that FDR hatched in 1937.
National projection updates will be coming this week. As for Colorado, look for the 3rd CD to move into the toss up category, the 7th to become more competitive and Betsy Markey, the Freshman Democrat Representing Colorado’s 4th CD, put a fork in her, she’s done, the GOP could put anyone up and beat her at this point.
Obamacare, as it has become known, is probably unconstitutional, at least several key parts. We cannot find constitutional grounds for the Federal Government forcing private individuals to purchase private insurance. They could just impose a tax, or the states could impose the mandate. Also the accounting gimmicks in the bill make Lehman Brothers look like the bank from It’s a Wonderful Life. In all, the courts will hold up most of the bill from taking effect, at least until after the mid-terms and congress will never have the BALLS to enact the cuts and tax increases that the bill counts on. Our final verdict on the bill, it has been a fool’s errand for the Democratic Party. This whole saga reminds us of the story of Xerxes at the Hellespont. The great Persian king had built a bridge across the river in order to move his troops. A storm washed the bridge out. Xerxes flew into a rage and “he commanded that the Hellespont be struck with three hundred strokes of the whip.” Seriously, he had the river whipped because it wouldn’t bend to his will. It is too early to know if this is an overreach, but this health care bill is starting to look to us like the court packing scheme that FDR hatched in 1937.
National projection updates will be coming this week. As for Colorado, look for the 3rd CD to move into the toss up category, the 7th to become more competitive and Betsy Markey, the Freshman Democrat Representing Colorado’s 4th CD, put a fork in her, she’s done, the GOP could put anyone up and beat her at this point.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Colorado State Senate Projection Update Feb. 2010
The Democrats currently enjoy a 21-14 majority in the Colorado State Senate. In our last post we looked at some competitive races. Our original forecast hasn't changed. District 6 currently is our only race ranked as a toss up. Senator Schwartz seems well on her way to buying her reelection in SD 5. SD 16 should be competitive on paper. Joan Fitz Gerald won this district a decade ago, she turned it over to Dan Gibbs and he won the district in his own right in 2008. The independents break for the Democrats in this mountain district. Voter sentiment seems to be trending against the Democratic party this cycle, so a close look at candidate financing reports will give us an idea if this seat really is in play. SD 2 looks likely to remain in Republican hands. SD 11 has simply become too Democratic for the GOP to hope to pick it up. Macro events could push it into the toss up category however. Lastly, SD 20. The Republicans would love to win this district, but Jefferson County, especially in the old ring suburbs has trended Democratic over the last decade. Look for the Democrats to outspend the GOP by 3-1 or 4-1. The real fight will probably be the Democratic primary.
Rank 1.
District 6: Durango-four corners region. Partisan make up: D 29.2% R 39.8% I 30%
Bruce Whitehead (D) $19,410
Ellen Roberts (R) $42,160
Toss Up.
Rank 2.
District 5: Central Mountains. Partisan make up: D 34.7% R 35.6% I 29%
Wayne Wolf (R) $1,470
Robert Rankin (R) $35,865
Gail Schwartz (D) $79,160
Leans Dem.
Rank 3.
District 16: North Central Mountains. Partisan make up: D 32.4% R 32% I 34.6%
Jeanne Nicholson (D) No Activity
Mark Hurlbert (R) No Activity
Tim Leonard (R) 12,820
Leans Dem.
Rank 4.
District 2: South Eastern Plains. Partisan make up: D 36.2% R 38.9% I 24.4%
Kevin Grantham (R) $12,340
Matt Heimerich (R) $6,050
No Democrats Registered Yet.
Rank 5.
District 11: Colorado Springs. Parisan make up: D 34.8% R 32.6% I 31.9%
John Morse (D) $37,650
Owen Hill (R) $865
Leans Dem.
Rank 6.
District 20: Wheat Ridge. Partisan make up: D 37% R 30% I 32%
John Odom (R) $10,220
Cheri Jahn (D) $38,480
David Ruchman (D) $28,500
Rank 1.
District 6: Durango-four corners region. Partisan make up: D 29.2% R 39.8% I 30%
Bruce Whitehead (D) $19,410
Ellen Roberts (R) $42,160
Toss Up.
Rank 2.
District 5: Central Mountains. Partisan make up: D 34.7% R 35.6% I 29%
Wayne Wolf (R) $1,470
Robert Rankin (R) $35,865
Gail Schwartz (D) $79,160
Leans Dem.
Rank 3.
District 16: North Central Mountains. Partisan make up: D 32.4% R 32% I 34.6%
Jeanne Nicholson (D) No Activity
Mark Hurlbert (R) No Activity
Tim Leonard (R) 12,820
Leans Dem.
Rank 4.
District 2: South Eastern Plains. Partisan make up: D 36.2% R 38.9% I 24.4%
Kevin Grantham (R) $12,340
Matt Heimerich (R) $6,050
No Democrats Registered Yet.
Rank 5.
District 11: Colorado Springs. Parisan make up: D 34.8% R 32.6% I 31.9%
John Morse (D) $37,650
Owen Hill (R) $865
Leans Dem.
Rank 6.
District 20: Wheat Ridge. Partisan make up: D 37% R 30% I 32%
John Odom (R) $10,220
Cheri Jahn (D) $38,480
David Ruchman (D) $28,500
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Colorado State House 2010 Forecast...The Dirty Dozen Most Competitive Seats
Currently, the Democrats hold a six seat majority over the Republicans in the State House. This includes Rep. Kathleen Curry (I) of Gunnison who strangely changed her registration creating a saga of strange events that we don't really have time to go into. Luckily her district (61) is included in our list, so we get to hear more about that strange saga. The GOP needs to pick up six seats in order to gain control of this chamber. As MHD has reported before, the GOP has a very low probability of gaining control over the State Senate, so it looks like the big battle in 2010 will be for the State House.
Below is a map of the Denver Metro Region. We describe the suburbs around Denver as the ring of fire. It is this region where control of the State House is won and lost. Look for big battles in Jefferson county and Adams county this fall.
Our top 12 most competitive State House Races are listed below, ranked by how likely they are to result in a change in party.
Rank 1
House District 38. Joe Rice (D) Littleton. Joe Rice's district has a PVI of R +9, and as a veteran he must know that he is "behind enemy lines." In 2008 Rep. Rice outspent his Republican opposition by about 100K. No contribution amounts have been turned in so far for either party this cycle. Rice sponsored the hated FASTER vehicle registration fee increases, a fact he seems to be proud of. Unless he gets about 50K ahead of whomever the GOP puts up, we list this as a leans GOP pick up.
Rank 2
House District 33. Dianne Primavera (D) Broomfield. District 33 has a PVI of R +1. In the 2008 cycle Primavera outspent her GOP opposition by 100K. This race should be competitive in the 2010 cycle. So far the GOP has raised 8,500 vs. Primavera's 11,500. Mark as a Toss Up.
Rank 3
House District 17. Dennis Apuan (D) Colorado Springs. This District currently has a Partisan Index score of D +5. This district's demographics, including its large transient population from Fort Carson makes it competitive. During the 2008 cycle Rep. Apuan outspent his Republican opponent, but only by about $1,000 out of a combined amount of 80K. This far out, this race can only be looked at as a Toss Up. We will keep an eye on the candidates and the money race.
Rank 4
House District 27. Sara Gagliardi (D) Arvada. This district has a Partisan Index of R +5. Rep. Gagliardi represents a extremely competitive district. In 2008 Gagliardi outspent her Republican challenger by over $60K in a race with only 140K in total candidate expenditures. Gagliardi currently has a $14,600 headstart on any Republican challengers. We will see if the political environment erodes more for the Democrats here in Colorado, if Gagliardi doesn't outspend her opponent by basically 2-1 she will probably lose in 2010. We are listing this in the Toss Up category right now.
Rank 5
House District 61. Kathleen Curry (I) Gunnison. This district has a PVI of D +7. In 2008 the GOP and Rep. Curry (then a Democrat) raised nearly the same amount of money. So far there are no listings for fundraising. This is a toss up at its best.
Rank 6
House District 29. Debbie Benefield (D) Arvada. This District has a Partisan Index of D +1. District 29 is nearly evenly divided between Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Rep. Benefield won in 2008 to only token Republican opposition. She spent nearly 79K on her election while the GOP spent a token 1.5K. For this cycle she has already raised 10K. There are no records of any Republican fundraising yet. Leans Democrat.
Rank 7
House District 30. Kevin Priola (R) Brighton. This District has a PVI of D +9. It is a traditionally Democratic district in Democratic Adams County. In the 2008 cycle Priola outspent his Democratic opponent by $27K, raising 67K to 40K. The power of money, or at least its function as a statistically significant predictor of the winner in competitive districts cannot be overstated. Priola has so far raised 29K for the 2010 cycle, his Democratic opposition has not yet sorted its field out. List this as leans GOP.
Rank 8
House District 31. Judy Solano (D) Brighton. This district has a PVI of D +3. Rep. Solano outspent her GOP opponent 2-1 in the last election. She has so far raised 15K, she has no listed GOP opposition. Leans Democrat.
Rank 9
House District 52. John Kefalas (D) Fort Collins. Rep. Kefalas was out raised by 50K by his Republican opposition in 2008, yet he still managed to win the very competitive district. So far he has raised 22.5K vs. no listed Republican challenger. Leans Democrat.
Rank 10
House District 23. Max Taylor (D) Golden. This district has a Partisan Index of D +5. Rep. Taylor took over the district from former Rep. Gwen Green, he is not a veteran of an election. This district has trended more and more Democratic since 2004, we list it as leans Dem.
Rank 11
House District 64. Wes McKinley (D) Walsh. This district has a PVI of D +7. In 2008 McKinley outspent his opponent 3-1. We list it as leans Dem.
Rank 12
House District 50. James Riesberg (D) Greeley. District 50 has a PVI of D +1. In 2008 he outspent his GOP opponent by 4-1! He has currently raised about 22K which is 22K more than his GOP opponent. List this as Leans Dem.
Below is a map of the Denver Metro Region. We describe the suburbs around Denver as the ring of fire. It is this region where control of the State House is won and lost. Look for big battles in Jefferson county and Adams county this fall.
Our top 12 most competitive State House Races are listed below, ranked by how likely they are to result in a change in party.
Rank 1
House District 38. Joe Rice (D) Littleton. Joe Rice's district has a PVI of R +9, and as a veteran he must know that he is "behind enemy lines." In 2008 Rep. Rice outspent his Republican opposition by about 100K. No contribution amounts have been turned in so far for either party this cycle. Rice sponsored the hated FASTER vehicle registration fee increases, a fact he seems to be proud of. Unless he gets about 50K ahead of whomever the GOP puts up, we list this as a leans GOP pick up.
Rank 2
House District 33. Dianne Primavera (D) Broomfield. District 33 has a PVI of R +1. In the 2008 cycle Primavera outspent her GOP opposition by 100K. This race should be competitive in the 2010 cycle. So far the GOP has raised 8,500 vs. Primavera's 11,500. Mark as a Toss Up.
Rank 3
House District 17. Dennis Apuan (D) Colorado Springs. This District currently has a Partisan Index score of D +5. This district's demographics, including its large transient population from Fort Carson makes it competitive. During the 2008 cycle Rep. Apuan outspent his Republican opponent, but only by about $1,000 out of a combined amount of 80K. This far out, this race can only be looked at as a Toss Up. We will keep an eye on the candidates and the money race.
Rank 4
House District 27. Sara Gagliardi (D) Arvada. This district has a Partisan Index of R +5. Rep. Gagliardi represents a extremely competitive district. In 2008 Gagliardi outspent her Republican challenger by over $60K in a race with only 140K in total candidate expenditures. Gagliardi currently has a $14,600 headstart on any Republican challengers. We will see if the political environment erodes more for the Democrats here in Colorado, if Gagliardi doesn't outspend her opponent by basically 2-1 she will probably lose in 2010. We are listing this in the Toss Up category right now.
Rank 5
House District 61. Kathleen Curry (I) Gunnison. This district has a PVI of D +7. In 2008 the GOP and Rep. Curry (then a Democrat) raised nearly the same amount of money. So far there are no listings for fundraising. This is a toss up at its best.
Rank 6
House District 29. Debbie Benefield (D) Arvada. This District has a Partisan Index of D +1. District 29 is nearly evenly divided between Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Rep. Benefield won in 2008 to only token Republican opposition. She spent nearly 79K on her election while the GOP spent a token 1.5K. For this cycle she has already raised 10K. There are no records of any Republican fundraising yet. Leans Democrat.
Rank 7
House District 30. Kevin Priola (R) Brighton. This District has a PVI of D +9. It is a traditionally Democratic district in Democratic Adams County. In the 2008 cycle Priola outspent his Democratic opponent by $27K, raising 67K to 40K. The power of money, or at least its function as a statistically significant predictor of the winner in competitive districts cannot be overstated. Priola has so far raised 29K for the 2010 cycle, his Democratic opposition has not yet sorted its field out. List this as leans GOP.
Rank 8
House District 31. Judy Solano (D) Brighton. This district has a PVI of D +3. Rep. Solano outspent her GOP opponent 2-1 in the last election. She has so far raised 15K, she has no listed GOP opposition. Leans Democrat.
Rank 9
House District 52. John Kefalas (D) Fort Collins. Rep. Kefalas was out raised by 50K by his Republican opposition in 2008, yet he still managed to win the very competitive district. So far he has raised 22.5K vs. no listed Republican challenger. Leans Democrat.
Rank 10
House District 23. Max Taylor (D) Golden. This district has a Partisan Index of D +5. Rep. Taylor took over the district from former Rep. Gwen Green, he is not a veteran of an election. This district has trended more and more Democratic since 2004, we list it as leans Dem.
Rank 11
House District 64. Wes McKinley (D) Walsh. This district has a PVI of D +7. In 2008 McKinley outspent his opponent 3-1. We list it as leans Dem.
Rank 12
House District 50. James Riesberg (D) Greeley. District 50 has a PVI of D +1. In 2008 he outspent his GOP opponent by 4-1! He has currently raised about 22K which is 22K more than his GOP opponent. List this as Leans Dem.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Bayh, Bayh Senator Bayh. MHD's Nasty Nine Update for Feb. 2010
North Dakota: Previous Rank 1 New Rank 1
Open Democratic Seat. Projection Likely Republican Pickup
Indiana: Previous Rank 9 New Rank 2
Open Democratic Seat. Projection Likely Republican Pickup
Arkansas: Previous Rank 2 New Rank 3
Lincoln (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Delaware: Previous Rank 4 New Rank 4
Open Seat: Ted Kaufman - D retiring Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Nevada: Previous Rank 3 New Rank 5
Reid (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Pennsylvania: Previous Rank 5 New Rank 6
Specter (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Colorado: Previous Rank 6 This Week 7
Bennet (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Missouri: Previous Rank 7 This Week 8
Open Seat: Kit Bond - R retiring Projection Leans GOP Hold
Illinois: Previous Rank 8 This Week 9
Open Seat: Roland Burris - D retiring Projection Toss Up
Overall, something is happening behind the scenes in Washington, Bayh dropping out puts the Republicans within striking distance of 50 seats. It appears that the Progressive-Moderate Democrat coalition is fraying badly. It is now conceivable for the GOP to gain control of the US House outright, but lets look deeper. It doesn't matter so much which party is in control so much as if the progressives or the conservatives of either party have control. Effectively the stars are aligning in such a way that the progressive coalition that has controlled the Federal Government since Obama's inauguration will lose power this fall, with the conservatives being able to block effectively all legislation.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Feb 2010 US Congress Update.
As things stand right now, we are forecasting that the GOP will pick up 6 to 7 Senate Seats and 35-40 US House Seats.
If the political climate continues to trend negatively for the Democrats, the Liberal majorities will lose effective control of the Congress, with the Republicans being able to pull off enough conservatives and moderates to stop any big legislation.
Colorado updates coming in the next week.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Mile High Delphi's "Nasty Nine" Top US Senate Races for 2010
North Dakota: Open Democrat Seat. Projection Likely Republican Pickup
Arkansas: Lincoln (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Nevada: Reid (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Delaware: Open Seat: Ted Kaufman - D retiring Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Pennsylvania: Specter (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Colorado: Bennet (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Missouri: Open Seat: Kit Bond - R retiring Projection Leans GOP Hold
Illinois: Open Seat: Roland Burris - D retiring Projection Toss Up
Indiana: Incumbent: Evan Bayh - D Projection Leans Democratic Hold
Arkansas: Lincoln (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Nevada: Reid (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Delaware: Open Seat: Ted Kaufman - D retiring Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Pennsylvania: Specter (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Colorado: Bennet (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup
Missouri: Open Seat: Kit Bond - R retiring Projection Leans GOP Hold
Illinois: Open Seat: Roland Burris - D retiring Projection Toss Up
Indiana: Incumbent: Evan Bayh - D Projection Leans Democratic Hold
US Senate 2010 Projection Update Jan 2010
Other projection sites:
Electoral-vote.com
fivethirtyeight.com
Election Projection 2010
CQ Politics Senate Map
Alabama (Richard Shelby - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Alaska (Lisa Murkowski - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arizona (John McCain - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln - D) Inc. Toss Up
California (Barbara Boxer - D) Inc. Likely Dem
Colorado (Michael Bennet - D) Inc. Toss Up
Connecticut (D) Open Safe Dem
Delaware (D) Open Leans GOP Pick Up
Florida (R) Open GOP Hold
Georgia (Johnny Isakson - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Idaho (Mike Crapo - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Illinois (D) Open Toss Up
Indiana (Evan Bayh - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Iowa (Chuck Grassley - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kansas (Sam Brownback - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kentucky (R) Open Toss Up
Louisiana (David Vitter - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Missouri (R) Open Toss Up
Nevada (Harry Reid - D) Inc. GOP Gain
New Hampshire (R) Open Toss Up
New York (Chuck Schumer - D) Inc. Dem Hold
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand - D) Inc. Dem Hold
North Carolina (Richard Burr - R) GOP Hold
North Dakota (D) Open GOP Gain
Ohio (R) Open Toss Up
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Oregon (Ron Wyden - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter - D) Inc. Toss Up
South Carolina (Jim DeMint - R) Inc. GOP Hold
South Dakota (John Thune - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Utah (Bob Bennett - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Vermont (Patrick Leahy - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Washington (Patty Murray - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Wisconsin (Russ Feingold - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Electoral-vote.com
fivethirtyeight.com
Election Projection 2010
CQ Politics Senate Map
Alabama (Richard Shelby - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Alaska (Lisa Murkowski - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arizona (John McCain - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln - D) Inc. Toss Up
California (Barbara Boxer - D) Inc. Likely Dem
Colorado (Michael Bennet - D) Inc. Toss Up
Connecticut (D) Open Safe Dem
Delaware (D) Open Leans GOP Pick Up
Florida (R) Open GOP Hold
Georgia (Johnny Isakson - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Idaho (Mike Crapo - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Illinois (D) Open Toss Up
Indiana (Evan Bayh - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Iowa (Chuck Grassley - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kansas (Sam Brownback - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kentucky (R) Open Toss Up
Louisiana (David Vitter - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Missouri (R) Open Toss Up
Nevada (Harry Reid - D) Inc. GOP Gain
New Hampshire (R) Open Toss Up
New York (Chuck Schumer - D) Inc. Dem Hold
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand - D) Inc. Dem Hold
North Carolina (Richard Burr - R) GOP Hold
North Dakota (D) Open GOP Gain
Ohio (R) Open Toss Up
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Oregon (Ron Wyden - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter - D) Inc. Toss Up
South Carolina (Jim DeMint - R) Inc. GOP Hold
South Dakota (John Thune - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Utah (Bob Bennett - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Vermont (Patrick Leahy - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Washington (Patty Murray - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Wisconsin (Russ Feingold - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Sunday, January 17, 2010
A look at the Massachusetts Special Election.
Here at two charts that demonstrate the dire straits that Democratic Senate Candidate Coakley is in.
From the intrade markets and the polls it sure looks like this race is going to go to the GOP. What an amazing change of fortune for the Democratic Party. Looks like the filibuster proof majority is about to become a part of history.
From the intrade markets and the polls it sure looks like this race is going to go to the GOP. What an amazing change of fortune for the Democratic Party. Looks like the filibuster proof majority is about to become a part of history.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Jan 2010 Election Forecast Update
Well, as we said about two months ago, Bill Ritter will not be the next Governor of Colorado. We are going to go ahead right now and label his administration as a Failure, that is right, your first and last source for Bill Ritter's place in history. Think of him as the Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon of Colorado. We aren't anti-Democrat, our only goal is to predict the outcome of elections, at least for a few more days, so lets dive right into our new projections.
Federal Offices:
US Senate: Barely Republican Pickup.
You can't blame Democratic Senator Bennet. Really, you have to respect him, he said that he would vote for a health care bill even if it costs him his job. Looks like it will.
CD-1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD-2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD-3 (Western Slope): Likely Democrat
CD-4 (North and East Colorado): Likely GOP Pickup
CD-5 (Colorado Springs): Safe GOP
CD-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs): Safe GOP
CD-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs): Leans Democrat
As we see it now, everything in Colorado depends on the national environment in a few months (duh!). If the GOP picks up a large number of seats then CD 7 and 3 will become competitive, if the GOP underperforms normal midterm patterns then only CD-4 will switch. Much remains to be seen, but we will call it now, CD-4 is gone for the Democrats.
Local Races:
Governor: Toss Up.
Bill Ritter dropping out and Hickenlooper jumping in make this race competitive again. However, 2010 isn't 2006. Hickenlooper has never run for office outside of Denver. He has never been vetted by true opposition. We think that we can remember great outrage years ago when we published a photo of Mayor Hickenlooper with a "cross dresser." We haven't bothered to look for that photo, but we are certain that voters won't see Mayor Hickenlooper as an outsider, he has been a part of everyday life in Colorado for the past decade.
Secretary of State, Attorney General and Treasurer. Forecasts won't be up until Summer.
State Senate: Likely Democratic Control
The math is just too difficult for the GOP as the numbers stand right now. We are confident that our model can predict these races; money will be the key, if you see huge GOP advantages in some competitive districts, look for our forecast to change.
State House: Leans Democratic Control
The math is actually better for the GOP here.
We are not as down on the Mile High State's Democrats as a recent LA Times story where the Times stated that "Analysts think Democrats could even lose their majorities in the Legislature."
We haven't met anyone who is not puffing some Medical Marijuana who thinks that.
Federal Offices:
US Senate: Barely Republican Pickup.
You can't blame Democratic Senator Bennet. Really, you have to respect him, he said that he would vote for a health care bill even if it costs him his job. Looks like it will.
CD-1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD-2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD-3 (Western Slope): Likely Democrat
CD-4 (North and East Colorado): Likely GOP Pickup
CD-5 (Colorado Springs): Safe GOP
CD-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs): Safe GOP
CD-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs): Leans Democrat
As we see it now, everything in Colorado depends on the national environment in a few months (duh!). If the GOP picks up a large number of seats then CD 7 and 3 will become competitive, if the GOP underperforms normal midterm patterns then only CD-4 will switch. Much remains to be seen, but we will call it now, CD-4 is gone for the Democrats.
Local Races:
Governor: Toss Up.
Bill Ritter dropping out and Hickenlooper jumping in make this race competitive again. However, 2010 isn't 2006. Hickenlooper has never run for office outside of Denver. He has never been vetted by true opposition. We think that we can remember great outrage years ago when we published a photo of Mayor Hickenlooper with a "cross dresser." We haven't bothered to look for that photo, but we are certain that voters won't see Mayor Hickenlooper as an outsider, he has been a part of everyday life in Colorado for the past decade.
Secretary of State, Attorney General and Treasurer. Forecasts won't be up until Summer.
State Senate: Likely Democratic Control
The math is just too difficult for the GOP as the numbers stand right now. We are confident that our model can predict these races; money will be the key, if you see huge GOP advantages in some competitive districts, look for our forecast to change.
State House: Leans Democratic Control
The math is actually better for the GOP here.
We are not as down on the Mile High State's Democrats as a recent LA Times story where the Times stated that "Analysts think Democrats could even lose their majorities in the Legislature."
We haven't met anyone who is not puffing some Medical Marijuana who thinks that.
Monday, December 07, 2009
Ranking Colorado's House Delgation from Most Liberal to Most Conservative.
Here is our rankings of Colorado's House delegation based upon how liberal or conservative they are.
Most Liberal to Most Conservative:
Dianna Degette CD 1 Liberal Score of 97.69 PVI D+21
Jared Polis CD 2 Liberal Score of 97.25 PVI D+11
Ed Perlmutter CD 7 Liberal Score of 94.93 PVI D+4
John Salazar CD 3 Liberal Score of 92.54 PVI R+5
Betsy Markey CD 4 Liberal Score of 87.50 PVI R+6
Mike Coffman CD 6 Liberal Score of 2.54 PVI R+8
Doug Lamborn CD 5 Liberal Score of 0.84 PVI R+14
Nothing surprising here, the Representatives' voting patters mirror the partisan voting patterns of their districts. For comparison the State of Colorado has a PVI of D+0.
Sources: Progressive Punch for Progressive scores from 2009-2010. PVI from Wikipedia.
Most Liberal to Most Conservative:
Dianna Degette CD 1 Liberal Score of 97.69 PVI D+21
Jared Polis CD 2 Liberal Score of 97.25 PVI D+11
Ed Perlmutter CD 7 Liberal Score of 94.93 PVI D+4
John Salazar CD 3 Liberal Score of 92.54 PVI R+5
Betsy Markey CD 4 Liberal Score of 87.50 PVI R+6
Mike Coffman CD 6 Liberal Score of 2.54 PVI R+8
Doug Lamborn CD 5 Liberal Score of 0.84 PVI R+14
Nothing surprising here, the Representatives' voting patters mirror the partisan voting patterns of their districts. For comparison the State of Colorado has a PVI of D+0.
Sources: Progressive Punch for Progressive scores from 2009-2010. PVI from Wikipedia.
Sunday, December 06, 2009
Colorado State Senate 2010 Forecast.
We are going to begin our look at the State Senate Elections with this observation.
During the last three election cycles there have been 25 elections held in districts which should be competitive on paper. These are districts where neither the Republican nor the Democratic Parties have a registration advantage of greater than 10%. Of these 25 races the Republicans won 3. That is right, a win percentage of 12%.
Is the Republican Party really that dismal in Colorado? The answer is complex, but in short, no. In 2002 the Colorado State Constitution was amended, what resulted was a game changer for local elections. Amendment 27 radically changed Colorado Legislative elections, while many can debate its merits, its effects have been to cripple Republican fundraising.
Here are some examples from the 2006 election cycle:
SD 5. Democrat Schwartz raised $222.8K vs. Republican Entz who raised $125K. This district had a 7% Republican registration advantage. Schwartz squeaked out a 51-49 win. Who says you cannot buy an election?
SD 6. Democrat Isgar raised $97K vs. Republican Tate who raised $26.5K. That is nearly 4-1.
SD 11. Democrat Morse 120K, Republican Jones 61.6K.
SD 20. Democrat Keller 126K, Republican Sargent 41.6K.
SD 16. Democrat Fitz-Gerald 147K, Republican Neilson 22K.
In 2008 Democrat Dan Gibbs ran to finish the second half of Joan Fitz-Gerald's term in SD 16. He raised 122.7K, Republican Ytterberg raised 63.5K.
We will reserve our detailed analysis of Amendment 27 (it is a joke, and a complete failure at its stated goal, which was to reduce the influence of money in politics) for a later date. Let us just say that 2004 was a watershed election in Colorado, and that the Democrats have been in power ever since.
As for the current election, here is our forecast of the five top races. Remember, the current breakdown of power in the Colorado State Senate is R 14 D 21. The number to get to in order to gain control is 18.
District 6: Senator Bruce Whitehead (D) took over this Four Corners district when former Senator Isgar left for a post with the Obama administration. The current makeup of this district gives the GOP a 10% registration advantage (that would be a R10 in Mile High Delphi speak). Fundraising will be critical and we don't expect the GOP to be outspent 3-1 this time around. Ellen Roberts, R-Durango, who represents House District 59, has announced that she plans to challenge Senator Whitehead in 2010. According to the Colorado Secretary of State, Roberts already has $22,500 cash on hand. Senator Whitehead has $3000.
After District 6, things really get a lot less fun. The Republican's dismal record in close registration races makes the probability of them picking up 3 additional State Senate Seats nearly impossible. Here are the four most competitive races that we forecast:
District 5: The two parties are locked in a registration dead heat in this mountain district. However, as we mentioned before, the GOP wins only about 1 out of 9 times in races where it has less than a 10% registration advantage. We mark this as leans Democrat at the moment. However, if the Republican's do pull off something like 2002, with the Gubernatorial candidate and the Senate candidate pulling off big wins, we could see a coat-tail effect.
District 16: Another mountain district that has a registration dead heat. Our model gives the GOP a one out of nine chance of winning it. See above for further analysis.
District 2: This South Eastern Colorado District looks like it should be solid GOP territory, but don't tell that to the voters, the GOP only has a 2% registration advantage. The Democrats could, with a carefully picked candidate win this district. Keep an eye on it.
District 11: Colorado Springs. Take a district with a small GOP registration advantage, outspend the Republican incumbent 2-1 and, abracadabra, you get a Democratic pickup. That was in 2006. Now this district has a Democratic registration advantage of 5%. This one has probably forever slipped away from the GOP. But we will watch it anyway.
Honorable Mention: District 20. This is Moe Keller's old Wheat Ridge centered district. It is made up of aging inner ring suburbs. Congressman Ed Perlmutter (D) lives in this district (he used to represent it). It is currently rated D+7. An Likely Democrat hold. Hell, this side of town elected Gwen Green (D) and she could have been outsmarted by a bulldog. Seriously, she couldn't debate anyone, she couldn't hold a conversation, she may not have been able to hold a thought. The days of "Jeffco" being a Republican stronghold are over.
We will flesh out this forecast over the next year. With, we promise you, a look at all the races. As things stand now, look for next year's State Senate to have 14-15 Republicans and 20-21 Democrats.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
2010 US Senate Projection Dec 2009 Update.
36 Races Current Make Up R-18 D-18 Projected Make Up: R-21 D-15 Net Gain R +3
Alabama (Richard Shelby - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Alaska (Lisa Murkowski - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arizona (John McCain - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln - D) Inc. Toss Up -early listing as Dem Hold- 50%
California (Barbara Boxer - D) Inc. 75% Dem Hold
Colorado (Michael Bennet - D) Inc. GOP Pick Up -45%
Connecticut (Chris Dodd - D) Inc. GOP Pick Up -mid 40s
Delaware (D) Open GOP Pick Up -mid 40s
Florida (R) Open GOP Hold
Georgia (Johnny Isakson - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Idaho (Mike Crapo - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Illinois (D) Open Dem Hold
Indiana (Evan Bayh - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Iowa (Chuck Grassley - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kansas (Sam Brownback - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kentucky (R) Open GOP Hold -competitive
Louisiana (David Vitter - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Missouri (R) Open Toss Up -early projection Dem Gain-
Nevada (Harry Reid - D) Inc. GOP Gain
New Hampshire (R) Open GOP Hold competitive
New York (Chuck Schumer - D) Inc. Dem Hold
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand - D) Inc. Dem Hold -competitive
North Carolina (Richard Burr - R) GOP Hold
North Dakota (Byron Dorgan - D) Dem Hold
Ohio (R) Open Toss Up -early projection GOP Hold-
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Oregon (Ron Wyden - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter - D) Inc. Toss Up -early projection Dem Hold-
South Carolina (Jim DeMint - R) Inc. GOP Hold
South Dakota (John Thune - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Utah (Bob Bennett - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Vermont (Patrick Leahy - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Washington (Patty Murray - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Wisconsin (Russ Feingold - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Race by Race Analysis will be coming up over the winter. These projections are very fluid. Some races, such as Pennsylvania are really Toss Ups. We will have a top ten list available during this next week for the most competitive races.
Alabama (Richard Shelby - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Alaska (Lisa Murkowski - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arizona (John McCain - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln - D) Inc. Toss Up -early listing as Dem Hold- 50%
California (Barbara Boxer - D) Inc. 75% Dem Hold
Colorado (Michael Bennet - D) Inc. GOP Pick Up -45%
Connecticut (Chris Dodd - D) Inc. GOP Pick Up -mid 40s
Delaware (D) Open GOP Pick Up -mid 40s
Florida (R) Open GOP Hold
Georgia (Johnny Isakson - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Idaho (Mike Crapo - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Illinois (D) Open Dem Hold
Indiana (Evan Bayh - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Iowa (Chuck Grassley - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kansas (Sam Brownback - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kentucky (R) Open GOP Hold -competitive
Louisiana (David Vitter - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Missouri (R) Open Toss Up -early projection Dem Gain-
Nevada (Harry Reid - D) Inc. GOP Gain
New Hampshire (R) Open GOP Hold competitive
New York (Chuck Schumer - D) Inc. Dem Hold
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand - D) Inc. Dem Hold -competitive
North Carolina (Richard Burr - R) GOP Hold
North Dakota (Byron Dorgan - D) Dem Hold
Ohio (R) Open Toss Up -early projection GOP Hold-
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Oregon (Ron Wyden - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter - D) Inc. Toss Up -early projection Dem Hold-
South Carolina (Jim DeMint - R) Inc. GOP Hold
South Dakota (John Thune - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Utah (Bob Bennett - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Vermont (Patrick Leahy - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Washington (Patty Murray - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Wisconsin (Russ Feingold - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Race by Race Analysis will be coming up over the winter. These projections are very fluid. Some races, such as Pennsylvania are really Toss Ups. We will have a top ten list available during this next week for the most competitive races.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
A new look at Colorado State Unemployment Numbers.
We here at MHD felt that just looking at the increases in Colorado State's unemployment rate during the Ritter years, and during the years since 2005 when the Democrats took control of the Colorado State Legislature for the first time in forty years, is rather unfair.
A better measure of how any party is dealing with the macro environment in Colorado would be to compare Colorado's unemployment rate to the national rate, that difference is the measure that we have created to look at how Colorado's State Government has performed.
We looked at the yearly rates for both Colorado and the United States as a whole (not seasonally adjusted) from 1998 to 2008 and at October 2009. That gave us 12 data points. Five of these points had the State Government in some form of split control, three with GOP control of both the legislature and the governor's office and four with total Democratic control.
From 1998 until 2001 Colorado generally outperformed the nation as a whole by about a percentage point. From 2002 until 2006 Colorado basically performed the same as the United States as a whole. During this time the Democrats swept into power, in what has since become know as the Colorado Model . From 2007 until October of 2009 Colorado has again outperformed the nation as a whole.
On average during the years of split control Colorado outperformed the national unemployment rate by about a third of a percent. During years of GOP control Colorado did even better, about .83 percent. From 2006 until 2008 the Democrats outperformed the national average by .06%, but they currently are outperforming the national average by 3.3%, with Colorado's October 2009 unemployment rate at 6.9% vs. the national average of 10.2%.
On average the Democrats beat the national average by 1.275% when you include the October data.
The Republicans would do well to point out the number of lost jobs since the Democrats have taken office, and especially since Democratic Governor Bill Ritter took office. However, the Democrats, if they are smart, will quickly retort with "but it could have been worse" and demonstrate how Colorado, under their stewardship, has outperformed the Nation as a whole.
Look for a sneak peak at the State Senate elections coming up next week. The Republicans need to pick up three seats to gain control of the chamber, and to deny the Democrats total control over redistricting, much as the Democrats did a decade ago.
A better measure of how any party is dealing with the macro environment in Colorado would be to compare Colorado's unemployment rate to the national rate, that difference is the measure that we have created to look at how Colorado's State Government has performed.
We looked at the yearly rates for both Colorado and the United States as a whole (not seasonally adjusted) from 1998 to 2008 and at October 2009. That gave us 12 data points. Five of these points had the State Government in some form of split control, three with GOP control of both the legislature and the governor's office and four with total Democratic control.
From 1998 until 2001 Colorado generally outperformed the nation as a whole by about a percentage point. From 2002 until 2006 Colorado basically performed the same as the United States as a whole. During this time the Democrats swept into power, in what has since become know as the Colorado Model . From 2007 until October of 2009 Colorado has again outperformed the nation as a whole.
On average during the years of split control Colorado outperformed the national unemployment rate by about a third of a percent. During years of GOP control Colorado did even better, about .83 percent. From 2006 until 2008 the Democrats outperformed the national average by .06%, but they currently are outperforming the national average by 3.3%, with Colorado's October 2009 unemployment rate at 6.9% vs. the national average of 10.2%.
On average the Democrats beat the national average by 1.275% when you include the October data.
The Republicans would do well to point out the number of lost jobs since the Democrats have taken office, and especially since Democratic Governor Bill Ritter took office. However, the Democrats, if they are smart, will quickly retort with "but it could have been worse" and demonstrate how Colorado, under their stewardship, has outperformed the Nation as a whole.
Look for a sneak peak at the State Senate elections coming up next week. The Republicans need to pick up three seats to gain control of the chamber, and to deny the Democrats total control over redistricting, much as the Democrats did a decade ago.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Updated Projections for 2010. Colorado Senate, House, Governor.
Lets make this short and sweet.
Senator Michael Bennet (D) is now rated by MHD as the underdog to ANY Republican. Don't blame us, if you think we are wrong go buy a Bennet futures contract over at intrade.com, he is trading for about 45 cents on the dollar. Rate this race a Leans GOP Pick Up. That is right, you heard it here first, 50 weeks out.
As for the US House Races.
You can bet money (literally, you can bet money on this) that the GOP will pick up 25 to 35 House Seats in the fall of 2010. How many will come from Colorado?
HD 1 (Denver) Safe Democrat. Degette could be in a coma and still win this race.
HD 2 (Boulder) Safe Democrat. No Republican is going to win in Boulder.
HD 3 (Western Slope) Leans Democrat to Toss Up. This depends on who challenges Salazar. But his vote on Health Care along with the fact that this district voted for McCain make him vulnerable. Keep your eyes on this district. If Salazar starts to look weak it could be a very bad year for the Democrats. The GOP has even set up a website at reversethevote.org targeting all 24 House members who voted for the Health Care bill and are from districts McCain won.
HD 4 (North Eastern Plains) GOP Pick Up. That is right, Lucero beats Betsy Markey (D). This is a Republican District, the perfect storm of Obama on the ballot and Musgrove defending her seat is over, look for a return to normalcy.
HD 5 (Colorado Springs) Safe Republican. Remember what we said about Boulder...
HD 6 (South and West Denver Suburbs) Safe Republican. Mike Coffman could go far, we doubt that the House is his last stop.
HD 7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Leans Democrat. Perlmutter should by all accounts have a more middle of the road voting record in this district which is designed to be competitive. However, the GOP hasn't been able to find a candidate that can give him a challenge, and we doubt they will this time.
State Races:
Governor: We are going to update the odds, moving from 3:1 in Bill Ritter's favor to 3:1 Bill Ritter gets nicknamed Rill Bitter. That is right, the first Governor in several generations to get kicked out of office by the voters after one term. Blame it on whatever you want, but you cannot go from an unemployment rate (per BLS) of 3.9% (seasonally adjusted in January of 2007) to 7.3% as of August 2009. We here at MHD aren't sure what the Colorado Promise was, but we are pretty sure that a doubling of the state unemployment rate wasn't part of it. Look for Ritter to get the boot.
As for the other statewide offices, come'on, that stuff is hard enough to predict when we know who the candidates are, we gotta wait for the primaries.
State House and State Senate.
So much work goes into those projections. Let us just say this, the last time the GOP had majorities in these houses was when Bill Owens (R) won a landslide election for Governor in 2002. Maybe the GOP can muster up a landslide against Ritter, but so far the tea leaves say that the Democrats are safe in both houses.
Senator Michael Bennet (D) is now rated by MHD as the underdog to ANY Republican. Don't blame us, if you think we are wrong go buy a Bennet futures contract over at intrade.com, he is trading for about 45 cents on the dollar. Rate this race a Leans GOP Pick Up. That is right, you heard it here first, 50 weeks out.
As for the US House Races.
You can bet money (literally, you can bet money on this) that the GOP will pick up 25 to 35 House Seats in the fall of 2010. How many will come from Colorado?
HD 1 (Denver) Safe Democrat. Degette could be in a coma and still win this race.
HD 2 (Boulder) Safe Democrat. No Republican is going to win in Boulder.
HD 3 (Western Slope) Leans Democrat to Toss Up. This depends on who challenges Salazar. But his vote on Health Care along with the fact that this district voted for McCain make him vulnerable. Keep your eyes on this district. If Salazar starts to look weak it could be a very bad year for the Democrats. The GOP has even set up a website at reversethevote.org targeting all 24 House members who voted for the Health Care bill and are from districts McCain won.
HD 4 (North Eastern Plains) GOP Pick Up. That is right, Lucero beats Betsy Markey (D). This is a Republican District, the perfect storm of Obama on the ballot and Musgrove defending her seat is over, look for a return to normalcy.
HD 5 (Colorado Springs) Safe Republican. Remember what we said about Boulder...
HD 6 (South and West Denver Suburbs) Safe Republican. Mike Coffman could go far, we doubt that the House is his last stop.
HD 7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Leans Democrat. Perlmutter should by all accounts have a more middle of the road voting record in this district which is designed to be competitive. However, the GOP hasn't been able to find a candidate that can give him a challenge, and we doubt they will this time.
State Races:
Governor: We are going to update the odds, moving from 3:1 in Bill Ritter's favor to 3:1 Bill Ritter gets nicknamed Rill Bitter. That is right, the first Governor in several generations to get kicked out of office by the voters after one term. Blame it on whatever you want, but you cannot go from an unemployment rate (per BLS) of 3.9% (seasonally adjusted in January of 2007) to 7.3% as of August 2009. We here at MHD aren't sure what the Colorado Promise was, but we are pretty sure that a doubling of the state unemployment rate wasn't part of it. Look for Ritter to get the boot.
As for the other statewide offices, come'on, that stuff is hard enough to predict when we know who the candidates are, we gotta wait for the primaries.
State House and State Senate.
So much work goes into those projections. Let us just say this, the last time the GOP had majorities in these houses was when Bill Owens (R) won a landslide election for Governor in 2002. Maybe the GOP can muster up a landslide against Ritter, but so far the tea leaves say that the Democrats are safe in both houses.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Gearing up for 2009 and 2010.
Well, you can tell that we are entering summer in an off year.
Things are pretty slow here at MHD. But we are starting work on next years elections already.
As far as Colorado is concerned, this year should be considered a real high point for Centennial State Democrats. The Democrats control both houses of the State Legislature, both US Senate Seats, five of seven US House Seats and most of the State Wide Offices. The conventional wisdom here is that this year is a high water mark for the Democrats. But can the Republicans quit their circular firing squad?
We are going to say it here first, Senator Bennet is one of the most endangered Democrats in the US Senate. Realistically, the only member of the US House that the GOP has a chance of knocking out is Rep. Markey (CD-4).
Both of these races will make it to the first tier on national lists for endangered Democrats.
Things are pretty slow here at MHD. But we are starting work on next years elections already.
As far as Colorado is concerned, this year should be considered a real high point for Centennial State Democrats. The Democrats control both houses of the State Legislature, both US Senate Seats, five of seven US House Seats and most of the State Wide Offices. The conventional wisdom here is that this year is a high water mark for the Democrats. But can the Republicans quit their circular firing squad?
We are going to say it here first, Senator Bennet is one of the most endangered Democrats in the US Senate. Realistically, the only member of the US House that the GOP has a chance of knocking out is Rep. Markey (CD-4).
Both of these races will make it to the first tier on national lists for endangered Democrats.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Looking ahead at Colorado's 2010 elections.
There will be two big elections in Colorado in 2010, the Governor's Race and the battle for Senator Ken Salazar's Senate Seat.
Governor Bill Ritter was elected in 2006 with a decisive margin over Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez. 2006 was a Democratic year and we certainly don't feel that Ritter is a shoe-in but a heavy favorite. We are placing the early odds of Ritter winning reelection at 3-1.
Democratic Senator Ken Salazar won victory over Peter Coors in 2004. While President Bush and the Republican's in general did well in 2004, Colorado moved decisively to the left, with the Democrats picking up the State House, State Senate and this Senate Seat. Salazar ran as a moderate, during his earlier service as Attorney General he didn't build up a voting record, now he does. While Salazar hasn't made it to some early top ten Senate lists thus far, we feel that the Democrats would be foolish to take this race for granted. Early odds 3-2.
All three of the state-wide offices are also up for election. The Democrats are about to have a 2-1 margin.
Attorney General: Republican John Suthers currently holds this post. Even if he doesn't run for reelection we don't favor any Democrat. Early odds 3-2.
State Treasurer: Democrat Cary Kennedy won this post in the wave of 2004. The political prognosticoti say that she is popular, the average voter has no idea who she is. 1-1.
Secretary of State: Republican Mike Coffman is leaving the SOS job in order to move over to the US House (he will represent the 6th CD). We are currently waiting for his Democratic replacement. 1-1.
Here is a look at the Congressional Districts:
CD 1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD 2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD 3 (West Slope): Likely Democrat
CD 4 (Eastern Plains): Toss Up. Democrat Markey will be making her freshman defense of this GOP leaning district. This will be one of the hottest races in the nation.
CD 5 (Colorado Springs): Safe Republican.
CD 6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Safe Republican.
CD 7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Likely Democrat.
Governor Bill Ritter was elected in 2006 with a decisive margin over Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez. 2006 was a Democratic year and we certainly don't feel that Ritter is a shoe-in but a heavy favorite. We are placing the early odds of Ritter winning reelection at 3-1.
Democratic Senator Ken Salazar won victory over Peter Coors in 2004. While President Bush and the Republican's in general did well in 2004, Colorado moved decisively to the left, with the Democrats picking up the State House, State Senate and this Senate Seat. Salazar ran as a moderate, during his earlier service as Attorney General he didn't build up a voting record, now he does. While Salazar hasn't made it to some early top ten Senate lists thus far, we feel that the Democrats would be foolish to take this race for granted. Early odds 3-2.
All three of the state-wide offices are also up for election. The Democrats are about to have a 2-1 margin.
Attorney General: Republican John Suthers currently holds this post. Even if he doesn't run for reelection we don't favor any Democrat. Early odds 3-2.
State Treasurer: Democrat Cary Kennedy won this post in the wave of 2004. The political prognosticoti say that she is popular, the average voter has no idea who she is. 1-1.
Secretary of State: Republican Mike Coffman is leaving the SOS job in order to move over to the US House (he will represent the 6th CD). We are currently waiting for his Democratic replacement. 1-1.
Here is a look at the Congressional Districts:
CD 1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD 2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD 3 (West Slope): Likely Democrat
CD 4 (Eastern Plains): Toss Up. Democrat Markey will be making her freshman defense of this GOP leaning district. This will be one of the hottest races in the nation.
CD 5 (Colorado Springs): Safe Republican.
CD 6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Safe Republican.
CD 7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Likely Democrat.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Final Projections 2008:
President: Obama 364 McCain 174 Obama is our projected winner.
Senate: Democrats 59 Republicans 41 Democrats pick up eight seats.
House: Democrats 255-265 Republicans 180-170. Democratic pickup of 20-30 seats.
Colorado:
Senate: Udall Democratic Pickup
House: CO-1 D, CO-2 D, CO-3 D, CO-4 Toss up, CO-5 R, CO-6 R, CO-7 D
State Senate: Democrats 19 Republicans 16. Republicans pickup SD 19 (Westminster and Arvada).
State House: 37 Democrats, 26 Republicans and 2 Toss ups.
Senate: Democrats 59 Republicans 41 Democrats pick up eight seats.
House: Democrats 255-265 Republicans 180-170. Democratic pickup of 20-30 seats.
Colorado:
Senate: Udall Democratic Pickup
House: CO-1 D, CO-2 D, CO-3 D, CO-4 Toss up, CO-5 R, CO-6 R, CO-7 D
State Senate: Democrats 19 Republicans 16. Republicans pickup SD 19 (Westminster and Arvada).
State House: 37 Democrats, 26 Republicans and 2 Toss ups.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Final Colorado State Senate Projection 2008.
Districts without elections: 16 divided R-8 D-8
Districts with elections: 19 current makeup R-7 D-12
Projected make up: R-16 D-19
District Breakdown:
Republican Held:
SD-4: Safe Republican District. Mark Sheffel (R) is our projected winner.
SD-8: Competitive District. Al White (R) vs. Ken Brenner (D). White had 10K on hand from the last report. Brenner had 12K cash on hand. White out spent and out raised Brenner so we are leaning towards White. Republican Hold.
SD-10: Safe Republican District. Bill Cadman (R) is our projected winner.
SD-12: Safe Republican District. Keith King (R) is our projected winner.
SD-23: Competitive District. Shawn Mitchell (R) vs. Joe Whitcomb (D). Mitchell had 49K cash on hand from the last report. Whitcomb had 4K cash on hand. Mitchell outspent Whitcomb so we are leaning towards Mitchell. Republican hold.
SD-26: Competitive District. Lauri Clapp (R) vs. Linda Newell (D). Clapp had 25K cash on hand. Newell looks to have been outspent. Republican hold.
SD-27: Safe Republican. Nancy Spence (R) is our projected winner.
We project that the Republican's will lose 0 state senate seats. Any surprise will have to occur in either district 8, 23 or 26. It is a big if however, no State Senate candidate has won without outspending their competitor in competitive districts. In non-competitive districts no amount of spending can overcome the statistical power of partisan make up.
Democrat Held Districts:
SD-14: Competitive District. We project Bob Bacon (D) will easily hold his seat.
SD-16: Highly Competitive District. Dan Gibbs (D) vs. Don Ytterburg (R). Gibbs had 10K cash on hand from the last report. Ytterberg had about 10K on hand also. However, it looks like he was simply outspent. Look for this district to remain in Democratic hands.
SD-17: Safe Democrat. We project Shaffer will easily hold his seat.
SD-18: Safe Democrat. We project Rollie Heath will win. Unopposed.
SD-19: Highly Competitive District. Open Seat. Evie Hadak (D) vs. Libby Szabo (R). Cash on hand: Hadak 20K Szabo 35K cash on hand. Szabo appears to have outspent Hadak, which will earn her this seat. Republican pickup.
SD-21: Safe Democrat. We project Betty Boyd (D) will win re-election.
SD-25: Safe Democrat. Mary Hodge (D), easy win.
SD-28, 29, 31, 33 and 35, all safe Democratic seats.
Overall we see the Democrats defending 11 of their 12 seats, losing only SD-19. It will take some major coat-tails for our prediction to be off.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)