Mile High Delphi

The new geography of Colorado.

2010-11-03T10:05:00.004-06:00

The votes are still being tallied. But we can say one thing about Colorado, it is not a midwestern state. Colorado seems to have changed dramatically over the last decade. It holds little in common with its neighboring states, and it seem to take its political leanings from the West Coast, California and Washington seem like the easiest comparisons.

In fact, to paraphrase Scoop Jackson, every vote you need to win in Colorado you can see from the top of Lookout Mountain.

2010 Final US Senate Projection.

2010-11-02T16:54:00.002-06:00

We project a GOP pickup of eight seats in the US Senate.

Here are the seats listed in order of how likely the pickup is.

Nevada 65%
Colorado 79%
Pennsylvania 90%
Arkansas 95%
Illinois 95%
Indiana 95%
North Dakota 95%
Wisconsin 95%

Other races of note:

Washington projects a Democratic win at about 55% probability. Should be close.
California should not be very close.

Mile High Delphi looks at Obamacare.

2010-03-21T21:46:00.002-06:00

We here at Mile High Delphi have four words to say about the Health Care Reform package that is going through congress; Much Ado About Nothing.

Obamacare, as it has become known, is probably unconstitutional, at least several key parts. We cannot find constitutional grounds for the Federal Government forcing private individuals to purchase private insurance. They could just impose a tax, or the states could impose the mandate. Also the accounting gimmicks in the bill make Lehman Brothers look like the bank from It’s a Wonderful Life. In all, the courts will hold up most of the bill from taking effect, at least until after the mid-terms and congress will never have the BALLS to enact the cuts and tax increases that the bill counts on. Our final verdict on the bill, it has been a fool’s errand for the Democratic Party. This whole saga reminds us of the story of Xerxes at the Hellespont. The great Persian king had built a bridge across the river in order to move his troops. A storm washed the bridge out. Xerxes flew into a rage and “he commanded that the Hellespont be struck with three hundred strokes of the whip.” Seriously, he had the river whipped because it wouldn’t bend to his will. It is too early to know if this is an overreach, but this health care bill is starting to look to us like the court packing scheme that FDR hatched in 1937.

National projection updates will be coming this week. As for Colorado, look for the 3rd CD to move into the toss up category, the 7th to become more competitive and Betsy Markey, the Freshman Democrat Representing Colorado’s 4th CD, put a fork in her, she’s done, the GOP could put anyone up and beat her at this point.

Colorado State Senate Projection Update Feb. 2010

2010-02-22T18:24:00.004-07:00

The Democrats currently enjoy a 21-14 majority in the Colorado State Senate. In our last post we looked at some competitive races. Our original forecast hasn't changed. District 6 currently is our only race ranked as a toss up. Senator Schwartz seems well on her way to buying her reelection in SD 5. SD 16 should be competitive on paper. Joan Fitz Gerald won this district a decade ago, she turned it over to Dan Gibbs and he won the district in his own right in 2008. The independents break for the Democrats in this mountain district. Voter sentiment seems to be trending against the Democratic party this cycle, so a close look at candidate financing reports will give us an idea if this seat really is in play. SD 2 looks likely to remain in Republican hands. SD 11 has simply become too Democratic for the GOP to hope to pick it up. Macro events could push it into the toss up category however. Lastly, SD 20. The Republicans would love to win this district, but Jefferson County, especially in the old ring suburbs has trended Democratic over the last decade. Look for the Democrats to outspend the GOP by 3-1 or 4-1. The real fight will probably be the Democratic primary.

Rank 1.

District 6: Durango-four corners region. Partisan make up: D 29.2% R 39.8% I 30%

Bruce Whitehead (D) $19,410

Ellen Roberts (R) $42,160

Toss Up.

Rank 2.

District 5: Central Mountains. Partisan make up: D 34.7% R 35.6% I 29%

Wayne Wolf (R) $1,470
Robert Rankin (R) $35,865

Gail Schwartz (D) $79,160

Leans Dem.

Rank 3.

District 16: North Central Mountains. Partisan make up: D 32.4% R 32% I 34.6%

Jeanne Nicholson (D) No Activity

Mark Hurlbert (R) No Activity
Tim Leonard (R) 12,820

Leans Dem.

Rank 4.

District 2: South Eastern Plains. Partisan make up: D 36.2% R 38.9% I 24.4%

Kevin Grantham (R) $12,340
Matt Heimerich (R) $6,050

No Democrats Registered Yet.

Rank 5.

District 11: Colorado Springs. Parisan make up: D 34.8% R 32.6% I 31.9%

John Morse (D) $37,650

Owen Hill (R) $865

Leans Dem.

Rank 6.

District 20: Wheat Ridge. Partisan make up: D 37% R 30% I 32%

John Odom (R) $10,220

Cheri Jahn (D) $38,480
David Ruchman (D) $28,500

Colorado State House 2010 Forecast...The Dirty Dozen Most Competitive Seats

2010-02-21T14:23:00.006-07:00

Currently, the Democrats hold a six seat majority over the Republicans in the State House. This includes Rep. Kathleen Curry (I) of Gunnison who strangely changed her registration creating a saga of strange events that we don't really have time to go into. Luckily her district (61) is included in our list, so we get to hear more about that strange saga. The GOP needs to pick up six seats in order to gain control of this chamber. As MHD has reported before, the GOP has a very low probability of gaining control over the State Senate, so it looks like the big battle in 2010 will be for the State House.

Below is a map of the Denver Metro Region. We describe the suburbs around Denver as the ring of fire. It is this region where control of the State House is won and lost. Look for big battles in Jefferson county and Adams county this fall.

Our top 12 most competitive State House Races are listed below, ranked by how likely they are to result in a change in party.

Rank 1
House District 38. Joe Rice (D) Littleton. Joe Rice's district has a PVI of R +9, and as a veteran he must know that he is "behind enemy lines." In 2008 Rep. Rice outspent his Republican opposition by about 100K. No contribution amounts have been turned in so far for either party this cycle. Rice sponsored the hated FASTER vehicle registration fee increases, a fact he seems to be proud of. Unless he gets about 50K ahead of whomever the GOP puts up, we list this as a leans GOP pick up.

Rank 2
House District 33. Dianne Primavera (D) Broomfield. District 33 has a PVI of R +1. In the 2008 cycle Primavera outspent her GOP opposition by 100K. This race should be competitive in the 2010 cycle. So far the GOP has raised 8,500 vs. Primavera's 11,500. Mark as a Toss Up.

Rank 3
House District 17. Dennis Apuan (D) Colorado Springs. This District currently has a Partisan Index score of D +5. This district's demographics, including its large transient population from Fort Carson makes it competitive. During the 2008 cycle Rep. Apuan outspent his Republican opponent, but only by about $1,000 out of a combined amount of 80K. This far out, this race can only be looked at as a Toss Up. We will keep an eye on the candidates and the money race.

Rank 4
House District 27. Sara Gagliardi (D) Arvada. This district has a Partisan Index of R +5. Rep. Gagliardi represents a extremely competitive district. In 2008 Gagliardi outspent her Republican challenger by over $60K in a race with only 140K in total candidate expenditures. Gagliardi currently has a $14,600 headstart on any Republican challengers. We will see if the political environment erodes more for the Democrats here in Colorado, if Gagliardi doesn't outspend her opponent by basically 2-1 she will probably lose in 2010. We are listing this in the Toss Up category right now.

Rank 5
House District 61. Kathleen Curry (I) Gunnison. This district has a PVI of D +7. In 2008 the GOP and Rep. Curry (then a Democrat) raised nearly the same amount of money. So far there are no listings for fundraising. This is a toss up at its best.

Rank 6
House District 29. Debbie Benefield (D) Arvada. This District has a Partisan Index of D +1. District 29 is nearly evenly divided between Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Rep. Benefield won in 2008 to only token Republican opposition. She spent nearly 79K on her election while the GOP spent a token 1.5K. For this cycle she has already raised 10K. There are no records of any Republican fundraising yet. Leans Democrat.

Rank 7
House District 30. Kevin Priola (R) Brighton. This District has a PVI of D +9. It is a traditionally Democratic district in Democratic Adams County. In the 2008 cycle Priola outspent his Democratic opponent by $27K, raising 67K to 40K. The power of money, or at least its function as a statistically significant predictor of the winner in competitive districts cannot be overstated. Priola has so far raised 29K for the 2010 cycle, his Democratic opposition has not yet sorted its field out. List this as leans GOP.

Rank 8
House District 31. Judy Solano (D) Brighton. This district has a PVI of D +3. Rep. Solano outspent her GOP opponent 2-1 in the last election. She has so far raised 15K, she has no listed GOP opposition. Leans Democrat.

Rank 9
House District 52. John Kefalas (D) Fort Collins. Rep. Kefalas was out raised by 50K by his Republican opposition in 2008, yet he still managed to win the very competitive district. So far he has raised 22.5K vs. no listed Republican challenger. Leans Democrat.

Rank 10
House District 23. Max Taylor (D) Golden. This district has a Partisan Index of D +5. Rep. Taylor took over the district from former Rep. Gwen Green, he is not a veteran of an election. This district has trended more and more Democratic since 2004, we list it as leans Dem.

Rank 11
House District 64. Wes McKinley (D) Walsh. This district has a PVI of D +7. In 2008 McKinley outspent his opponent 3-1. We list it as leans Dem.

Rank 12
House District 50. James Riesberg (D) Greeley. District 50 has a PVI of D +1. In 2008 he outspent his GOP opponent by 4-1! He has currently raised about 22K which is 22K more than his GOP opponent. List this as Leans Dem.

Bayh, Bayh Senator Bayh. MHD's Nasty Nine Update for Feb. 2010

2010-02-16T22:38:00.004-07:00

North Dakota: Previous Rank 1 New Rank 1
Open Democratic Seat. Projection Likely Republican Pickup

Indiana: Previous Rank 9 New Rank 2
Open Democratic Seat. Projection Likely Republican Pickup

Arkansas: Previous Rank 2 New Rank 3
Lincoln (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Delaware: Previous Rank 4 New Rank 4
Open Seat: Ted Kaufman - D retiring Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Nevada: Previous Rank 3 New Rank 5
Reid (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Pennsylvania: Previous Rank 5 New Rank 6
Specter (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Colorado: Previous Rank 6 This Week 7
Bennet (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Missouri: Previous Rank 7 This Week 8
Open Seat: Kit Bond - R retiring Projection Leans GOP Hold

Illinois: Previous Rank 8 This Week 9
Open Seat: Roland Burris - D retiring Projection Toss Up

Overall, something is happening behind the scenes in Washington, Bayh dropping out puts the Republicans within striking distance of 50 seats. It appears that the Progressive-Moderate Democrat coalition is fraying badly. It is now conceivable for the GOP to gain control of the US House outright, but lets look deeper. It doesn't matter so much which party is in control so much as if the progressives or the conservatives of either party have control. Effectively the stars are aligning in such a way that the progressive coalition that has controlled the Federal Government since Obama's inauguration will lose power this fall, with the conservatives being able to block effectively all legislation.

Feb 2010 US Congress Update.

2010-02-14T17:36:00.004-07:00

As things stand right now, we are forecasting that the GOP will pick up 6 to 7 Senate Seats and 35-40 US House Seats.

If the political climate continues to trend negatively for the Democrats, the Liberal majorities will lose effective control of the Congress, with the Republicans being able to pull off enough conservatives and moderates to stop any big legislation.

Colorado updates coming in the next week.

Mile High Delphi's "Nasty Nine" Top US Senate Races for 2010

2010-01-25T20:20:00.003-07:00

North Dakota: Open Democrat Seat. Projection Likely Republican Pickup

Arkansas: Lincoln (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Nevada: Reid (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Delaware: Open Seat: Ted Kaufman - D retiring Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Pennsylvania: Specter (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Colorado: Bennet (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Missouri: Open Seat: Kit Bond - R retiring Projection Leans GOP Hold

Illinois: Open Seat: Roland Burris - D retiring Projection Toss Up

Indiana: Incumbent: Evan Bayh - D Projection Leans Democratic Hold

US Senate 2010 Projection Update Jan 2010

2010-01-25T19:34:00.003-07:00

Other projection sites:

Electoral-vote.com
fivethirtyeight.com
Election Projection 2010
CQ Politics Senate Map

Alabama (Richard Shelby - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Alaska (Lisa Murkowski - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arizona (John McCain - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln - D) Inc. Toss Up
California (Barbara Boxer - D) Inc. Likely Dem
Colorado (Michael Bennet - D) Inc. Toss Up
Connecticut (D) Open Safe Dem
Delaware (D) Open Leans GOP Pick Up
Florida (R) Open GOP Hold
Georgia (Johnny Isakson - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Idaho (Mike Crapo - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Illinois (D) Open Toss Up
Indiana (Evan Bayh - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Iowa (Chuck Grassley - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kansas (Sam Brownback - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kentucky (R) Open Toss Up
Louisiana (David Vitter - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Missouri (R) Open Toss Up
Nevada (Harry Reid - D) Inc. GOP Gain
New Hampshire (R) Open Toss Up
New York (Chuck Schumer - D) Inc. Dem Hold
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand - D) Inc. Dem Hold
North Carolina (Richard Burr - R) GOP Hold
North Dakota (D) Open GOP Gain
Ohio (R) Open Toss Up
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Oregon (Ron Wyden - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter - D) Inc. Toss Up
South Carolina (Jim DeMint - R) Inc. GOP Hold
South Dakota (John Thune - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Utah (Bob Bennett - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Vermont (Patrick Leahy - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Washington (Patty Murray - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Wisconsin (Russ Feingold - D) Inc. Dem Hold

A look at the Massachusetts Special Election.

2010-01-17T21:40:00.002-07:00

Here at two charts that demonstrate the dire straits that Democratic Senate Candidate Coakley is in.

From the intrade markets and the polls it sure looks like this race is going to go to the GOP. What an amazing change of fortune for the Democratic Party. Looks like the filibuster proof majority is about to become a part of history.

Jan 2010 Election Forecast Update

2010-01-14T22:17:00.003-07:00

Well, as we said about two months ago, Bill Ritter will not be the next Governor of Colorado. We are going to go ahead right now and label his administration as a Failure, that is right, your first and last source for Bill Ritter's place in history. Think of him as the Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon of Colorado. We aren't anti-Democrat, our only goal is to predict the outcome of elections, at least for a few more days, so lets dive right into our new projections.

Federal Offices:

US Senate: Barely Republican Pickup.

You can't blame Democratic Senator Bennet. Really, you have to respect him, he said that he would vote for a health care bill even if it costs him his job. Looks like it will.

CD-1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD-2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD-3 (Western Slope): Likely Democrat
CD-4 (North and East Colorado): Likely GOP Pickup
CD-5 (Colorado Springs): Safe GOP
CD-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs): Safe GOP
CD-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs): Leans Democrat

As we see it now, everything in Colorado depends on the national environment in a few months (duh!). If the GOP picks up a large number of seats then CD 7 and 3 will become competitive, if the GOP underperforms normal midterm patterns then only CD-4 will switch. Much remains to be seen, but we will call it now, CD-4 is gone for the Democrats.

Local Races:

Governor: Toss Up.

Bill Ritter dropping out and Hickenlooper jumping in make this race competitive again. However, 2010 isn't 2006. Hickenlooper has never run for office outside of Denver. He has never been vetted by true opposition. We think that we can remember great outrage years ago when we published a photo of Mayor Hickenlooper with a "cross dresser." We haven't bothered to look for that photo, but we are certain that voters won't see Mayor Hickenlooper as an outsider, he has been a part of everyday life in Colorado for the past decade.

Secretary of State, Attorney General and Treasurer. Forecasts won't be up until Summer.

State Senate: Likely Democratic Control

The math is just too difficult for the GOP as the numbers stand right now. We are confident that our model can predict these races; money will be the key, if you see huge GOP advantages in some competitive districts, look for our forecast to change.

State House: Leans Democratic Control

The math is actually better for the GOP here.

We are not as down on the Mile High State's Democrats as a recent LA Times story where the Times stated that "Analysts think Democrats could even lose their majorities in the Legislature."
We haven't met anyone who is not puffing some Medical Marijuana who thinks that.

Ranking Colorado's House Delgation from Most Liberal to Most Conservative.

2009-12-07T21:17:00.002-07:00

Here is our rankings of Colorado's House delegation based upon how liberal or conservative they are.

Most Liberal to Most Conservative:
Dianna Degette CD 1 Liberal Score of 97.69 PVI D+21
Jared Polis CD 2 Liberal Score of 97.25 PVI D+11
Ed Perlmutter CD 7 Liberal Score of 94.93 PVI D+4
John Salazar CD 3 Liberal Score of 92.54 PVI R+5
Betsy Markey CD 4 Liberal Score of 87.50 PVI R+6
Mike Coffman CD 6 Liberal Score of 2.54 PVI R+8
Doug Lamborn CD 5 Liberal Score of 0.84 PVI R+14

Nothing surprising here, the Representatives' voting patters mirror the partisan voting patterns of their districts. For comparison the State of Colorado has a PVI of D+0.

Sources: Progressive Punch for Progressive scores from 2009-2010. PVI from Wikipedia.

Colorado State Senate 2010 Forecast.

2009-12-06T22:45:00.004-07:00

We are going to begin our look at the State Senate Elections with this observation.

During the last three election cycles there have been 25 elections held in districts which should be competitive on paper. These are districts where neither the Republican nor the Democratic Parties have a registration advantage of greater than 10%. Of these 25 races the Republicans won 3. That is right, a win percentage of 12%.

Is the Republican Party really that dismal in Colorado? The answer is complex, but in short, no. In 2002 the Colorado State Constitution was amended, what resulted was a game changer for local elections. Amendment 27 radically changed Colorado Legislative elections, while many can debate its merits, its effects have been to cripple Republican fundraising.

Here are some examples from the 2006 election cycle:

SD 5. Democrat Schwartz raised $222.8K vs. Republican Entz who raised $125K. This district had a 7% Republican registration advantage. Schwartz squeaked out a 51-49 win. Who says you cannot buy an election?

SD 6. Democrat Isgar raised $97K vs. Republican Tate who raised $26.5K. That is nearly 4-1.

SD 11. Democrat Morse 120K, Republican Jones 61.6K.

SD 20. Democrat Keller 126K, Republican Sargent 41.6K.

SD 16. Democrat Fitz-Gerald 147K, Republican Neilson 22K.

In 2008 Democrat Dan Gibbs ran to finish the second half of Joan Fitz-Gerald's term in SD 16. He raised 122.7K, Republican Ytterberg raised 63.5K.

We will reserve our detailed analysis of Amendment 27 (it is a joke, and a complete failure at its stated goal, which was to reduce the influence of money in politics) for a later date. Let us just say that 2004 was a watershed election in Colorado, and that the Democrats have been in power ever since.

As for the current election, here is our forecast of the five top races. Remember, the current breakdown of power in the Colorado State Senate is R 14 D 21. The number to get to in order to gain control is 18.

District 6: Senator Bruce Whitehead (D) took over this Four Corners district when former Senator Isgar left for a post with the Obama administration. The current makeup of this district gives the GOP a 10% registration advantage (that would be a R10 in Mile High Delphi speak). Fundraising will be critical and we don't expect the GOP to be outspent 3-1 this time around. Ellen Roberts, R-Durango, who represents House District 59, has announced that she plans to challenge Senator Whitehead in 2010. According to the Colorado Secretary of State, Roberts already has $22,500 cash on hand. Senator Whitehead has $3000.

After District 6, things really get a lot less fun. The Republican's dismal record in close registration races makes the probability of them picking up 3 additional State Senate Seats nearly impossible. Here are the four most competitive races that we forecast:

District 5: The two parties are locked in a registration dead heat in this mountain district. However, as we mentioned before, the GOP wins only about 1 out of 9 times in races where it has less than a 10% registration advantage. We mark this as leans Democrat at the moment. However, if the Republican's do pull off something like 2002, with the Gubernatorial candidate and the Senate candidate pulling off big wins, we could see a coat-tail effect.

District 16: Another mountain district that has a registration dead heat. Our model gives the GOP a one out of nine chance of winning it. See above for further analysis.

District 2: This South Eastern Colorado District looks like it should be solid GOP territory, but don't tell that to the voters, the GOP only has a 2% registration advantage. The Democrats could, with a carefully picked candidate win this district. Keep an eye on it.

District 11: Colorado Springs. Take a district with a small GOP registration advantage, outspend the Republican incumbent 2-1 and, abracadabra, you get a Democratic pickup. That was in 2006. Now this district has a Democratic registration advantage of 5%. This one has probably forever slipped away from the GOP. But we will watch it anyway.

Honorable Mention: District 20. This is Moe Keller's old Wheat Ridge centered district. It is made up of aging inner ring suburbs. Congressman Ed Perlmutter (D) lives in this district (he used to represent it). It is currently rated D+7. An Likely Democrat hold. Hell, this side of town elected Gwen Green (D) and she could have been outsmarted by a bulldog. Seriously, she couldn't debate anyone, she couldn't hold a conversation, she may not have been able to hold a thought. The days of "Jeffco" being a Republican stronghold are over.

We will flesh out this forecast over the next year. With, we promise you, a look at all the races. As things stand now, look for next year's State Senate to have 14-15 Republicans and 20-21 Democrats.

2010 US Senate Projection Dec 2009 Update.

2009-11-29T21:11:00.002-07:00

36 Races Current Make Up R-18 D-18 Projected Make Up: R-21 D-15 Net Gain R +3

Alabama (Richard Shelby - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Alaska (Lisa Murkowski - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arizona (John McCain - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln - D) Inc. Toss Up -early listing as Dem Hold- 50%
California (Barbara Boxer - D) Inc. 75% Dem Hold
Colorado (Michael Bennet - D) Inc. GOP Pick Up -45%
Connecticut (Chris Dodd - D) Inc. GOP Pick Up -mid 40s
Delaware (D) Open GOP Pick Up -mid 40s
Florida (R) Open GOP Hold
Georgia (Johnny Isakson - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Idaho (Mike Crapo - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Illinois (D) Open Dem Hold
Indiana (Evan Bayh - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Iowa (Chuck Grassley - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kansas (Sam Brownback - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kentucky (R) Open GOP Hold -competitive
Louisiana (David Vitter - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Missouri (R) Open Toss Up -early projection Dem Gain-
Nevada (Harry Reid - D) Inc. GOP Gain
New Hampshire (R) Open GOP Hold competitive
New York (Chuck Schumer - D) Inc. Dem Hold
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand - D) Inc. Dem Hold -competitive
North Carolina (Richard Burr - R) GOP Hold
North Dakota (Byron Dorgan - D) Dem Hold
Ohio (R) Open Toss Up -early projection GOP Hold-
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Oregon (Ron Wyden - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter - D) Inc. Toss Up -early projection Dem Hold-
South Carolina (Jim DeMint - R) Inc. GOP Hold
South Dakota (John Thune - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Utah (Bob Bennett - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Vermont (Patrick Leahy - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Washington (Patty Murray - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Wisconsin (Russ Feingold - D) Inc. Dem Hold

Race by Race Analysis will be coming up over the winter. These projections are very fluid. Some races, such as Pennsylvania are really Toss Ups. We will have a top ten list available during this next week for the most competitive races.

A new look at Colorado State Unemployment Numbers.

2009-11-22T22:43:00.003-07:00

We here at MHD felt that just looking at the increases in Colorado State's unemployment rate during the Ritter years, and during the years since 2005 when the Democrats took control of the Colorado State Legislature for the first time in forty years, is rather unfair.

A better measure of how any party is dealing with the macro environment in Colorado would be to compare Colorado's unemployment rate to the national rate, that difference is the measure that we have created to look at how Colorado's State Government has performed.

We looked at the yearly rates for both Colorado and the United States as a whole (not seasonally adjusted) from 1998 to 2008 and at October 2009. That gave us 12 data points. Five of these points had the State Government in some form of split control, three with GOP control of both the legislature and the governor's office and four with total Democratic control.

From 1998 until 2001 Colorado generally outperformed the nation as a whole by about a percentage point. From 2002 until 2006 Colorado basically performed the same as the United States as a whole. During this time the Democrats swept into power, in what has since become know as the Colorado Model . From 2007 until October of 2009 Colorado has again outperformed the nation as a whole.

On average during the years of split control Colorado outperformed the national unemployment rate by about a third of a percent. During years of GOP control Colorado did even better, about .83 percent. From 2006 until 2008 the Democrats outperformed the national average by .06%, but they currently are outperforming the national average by 3.3%, with Colorado's October 2009 unemployment rate at 6.9% vs. the national average of 10.2%.

On average the Democrats beat the national average by 1.275% when you include the October data.

The Republicans would do well to point out the number of lost jobs since the Democrats have taken office, and especially since Democratic Governor Bill Ritter took office. However, the Democrats, if they are smart, will quickly retort with "but it could have been worse" and demonstrate how Colorado, under their stewardship, has outperformed the Nation as a whole.

Look for a sneak peak at the State Senate elections coming up next week. The Republicans need to pick up three seats to gain control of the chamber, and to deny the Democrats total control over redistricting, much as the Democrats did a decade ago.

Updated Projections for 2010. Colorado Senate, House, Governor.

2009-11-18T19:34:00.003-07:00

Lets make this short and sweet.

Senator Michael Bennet (D) is now rated by MHD as the underdog to ANY Republican. Don't blame us, if you think we are wrong go buy a Bennet futures contract over at intrade.com, he is trading for about 45 cents on the dollar. Rate this race a Leans GOP Pick Up. That is right, you heard it here first, 50 weeks out.

As for the US House Races.

You can bet money (literally, you can bet money on this) that the GOP will pick up 25 to 35 House Seats in the fall of 2010. How many will come from Colorado?

HD 1 (Denver) Safe Democrat. Degette could be in a coma and still win this race.
HD 2 (Boulder) Safe Democrat. No Republican is going to win in Boulder.
HD 3 (Western Slope) Leans Democrat to Toss Up. This depends on who challenges Salazar. But his vote on Health Care along with the fact that this district voted for McCain make him vulnerable. Keep your eyes on this district. If Salazar starts to look weak it could be a very bad year for the Democrats. The GOP has even set up a website at reversethevote.org targeting all 24 House members who voted for the Health Care bill and are from districts McCain won.
HD 4 (North Eastern Plains) GOP Pick Up. That is right, Lucero beats Betsy Markey (D). This is a Republican District, the perfect storm of Obama on the ballot and Musgrove defending her seat is over, look for a return to normalcy.
HD 5 (Colorado Springs) Safe Republican. Remember what we said about Boulder...
HD 6 (South and West Denver Suburbs) Safe Republican. Mike Coffman could go far, we doubt that the House is his last stop.
HD 7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Leans Democrat. Perlmutter should by all accounts have a more middle of the road voting record in this district which is designed to be competitive. However, the GOP hasn't been able to find a candidate that can give him a challenge, and we doubt they will this time.

State Races:

Governor: We are going to update the odds, moving from 3:1 in Bill Ritter's favor to 3:1 Bill Ritter gets nicknamed Rill Bitter. That is right, the first Governor in several generations to get kicked out of office by the voters after one term. Blame it on whatever you want, but you cannot go from an unemployment rate (per BLS) of 3.9% (seasonally adjusted in January of 2007) to 7.3% as of August 2009. We here at MHD aren't sure what the Colorado Promise was, but we are pretty sure that a doubling of the state unemployment rate wasn't part of it. Look for Ritter to get the boot.

As for the other statewide offices, come'on, that stuff is hard enough to predict when we know who the candidates are, we gotta wait for the primaries.

State House and State Senate.

So much work goes into those projections. Let us just say this, the last time the GOP had majorities in these houses was when Bill Owens (R) won a landslide election for Governor in 2002. Maybe the GOP can muster up a landslide against Ritter, but so far the tea leaves say that the Democrats are safe in both houses.

Gearing up for 2009 and 2010.

2009-05-29T14:49:00.002-06:00

Well, you can tell that we are entering summer in an off year.

Things are pretty slow here at MHD. But we are starting work on next years elections already.

As far as Colorado is concerned, this year should be considered a real high point for Centennial State Democrats. The Democrats control both houses of the State Legislature, both US Senate Seats, five of seven US House Seats and most of the State Wide Offices. The conventional wisdom here is that this year is a high water mark for the Democrats. But can the Republicans quit their circular firing squad?

We are going to say it here first, Senator Bennet is one of the most endangered Democrats in the US Senate. Realistically, the only member of the US House that the GOP has a chance of knocking out is Rep. Markey (CD-4).

Both of these races will make it to the first tier on national lists for endangered Democrats.

Looking ahead at Colorado's 2010 elections.

2008-11-19T20:08:00.002-07:00

There will be two big elections in Colorado in 2010, the Governor's Race and the battle for Senator Ken Salazar's Senate Seat.

Governor Bill Ritter was elected in 2006 with a decisive margin over Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez. 2006 was a Democratic year and we certainly don't feel that Ritter is a shoe-in but a heavy favorite. We are placing the early odds of Ritter winning reelection at 3-1.

Democratic Senator Ken Salazar won victory over Peter Coors in 2004. While President Bush and the Republican's in general did well in 2004, Colorado moved decisively to the left, with the Democrats picking up the State House, State Senate and this Senate Seat. Salazar ran as a moderate, during his earlier service as Attorney General he didn't build up a voting record, now he does. While Salazar hasn't made it to some early top ten Senate lists thus far, we feel that the Democrats would be foolish to take this race for granted. Early odds 3-2.

All three of the state-wide offices are also up for election. The Democrats are about to have a 2-1 margin.

Attorney General: Republican John Suthers currently holds this post. Even if he doesn't run for reelection we don't favor any Democrat. Early odds 3-2.

State Treasurer: Democrat Cary Kennedy won this post in the wave of 2004. The political prognosticoti say that she is popular, the average voter has no idea who she is. 1-1.

Secretary of State: Republican Mike Coffman is leaving the SOS job in order to move over to the US House (he will represent the 6th CD). We are currently waiting for his Democratic replacement. 1-1.

Here is a look at the Congressional Districts:

CD 1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD 2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD 3 (West Slope): Likely Democrat
CD 4 (Eastern Plains): Toss Up. Democrat Markey will be making her freshman defense of this GOP leaning district. This will be one of the hottest races in the nation.
CD 5 (Colorado Springs): Safe Republican.
CD 6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Safe Republican.
CD 7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Likely Democrat.

Final Projections 2008:

2008-11-04T12:33:00.003-07:00

President: Obama 364 McCain 174 Obama is our projected winner.
Senate: Democrats 59 Republicans 41 Democrats pick up eight seats.
House: Democrats 255-265 Republicans 180-170. Democratic pickup of 20-30 seats.

Colorado:
Senate: Udall Democratic Pickup
House: CO-1 D, CO-2 D, CO-3 D, CO-4 Toss up, CO-5 R, CO-6 R, CO-7 D

State Senate: Democrats 19 Republicans 16. Republicans pickup SD 19 (Westminster and Arvada).
State House: 37 Democrats, 26 Republicans and 2 Toss ups.

Final Colorado State Senate Projection 2008.

2008-11-03T23:26:00.005-07:00

Districts without elections: 16 divided R-8 D-8

Districts with elections: 19 current makeup R-7 D-12

Projected make up: R-16 D-19

District Breakdown:

Republican Held:

SD-4: Safe Republican District. Mark Sheffel (R) is our projected winner.

SD-8: Competitive District. Al White (R) vs. Ken Brenner (D). White had 10K on hand from the last report. Brenner had 12K cash on hand. White out spent and out raised Brenner so we are leaning towards White. Republican Hold.

SD-10: Safe Republican District. Bill Cadman (R) is our projected winner.

SD-12: Safe Republican District. Keith King (R) is our projected winner.

SD-23: Competitive District. Shawn Mitchell (R) vs. Joe Whitcomb (D). Mitchell had 49K cash on hand from the last report. Whitcomb had 4K cash on hand. Mitchell outspent Whitcomb so we are leaning towards Mitchell. Republican hold.

SD-26: Competitive District. Lauri Clapp (R) vs. Linda Newell (D). Clapp had 25K cash on hand. Newell looks to have been outspent. Republican hold.

SD-27: Safe Republican. Nancy Spence (R) is our projected winner.

We project that the Republican's will lose 0 state senate seats. Any surprise will have to occur in either district 8, 23 or 26. It is a big if however, no State Senate candidate has won without outspending their competitor in competitive districts. In non-competitive districts no amount of spending can overcome the statistical power of partisan make up.

Democrat Held Districts:

SD-14: Competitive District. We project Bob Bacon (D) will easily hold his seat.

SD-16: Highly Competitive District. Dan Gibbs (D) vs. Don Ytterburg (R). Gibbs had 10K cash on hand from the last report. Ytterberg had about 10K on hand also. However, it looks like he was simply outspent. Look for this district to remain in Democratic hands.

SD-17: Safe Democrat. We project Shaffer will easily hold his seat.

SD-18: Safe Democrat. We project Rollie Heath will win. Unopposed.

SD-19: Highly Competitive District. Open Seat. Evie Hadak (D) vs. Libby Szabo (R). Cash on hand: Hadak 20K Szabo 35K cash on hand. Szabo appears to have outspent Hadak, which will earn her this seat. Republican pickup.

SD-21: Safe Democrat. We project Betty Boyd (D) will win re-election.

SD-25: Safe Democrat. Mary Hodge (D), easy win.

SD-28, 29, 31, 33 and 35, all safe Democratic seats.

Overall we see the Democrats defending 11 of their 12 seats, losing only SD-19. It will take some major coat-tails for our prediction to be off.

Colorado State House Final Projection 2008.

2008-11-03T14:58:00.002-07:00

House Districts 1-9 City and County of Denver. All Safe Democrat.

House Districts 10-13 Boulder, Gilpin and Clear Creek Counties. All Safe Democrat.

House Districts 14-21 El Paso and Fremont Counties. 6 Safe Republican 1 Republican Favored 1 Democrat Favored.

House Districts 22-29 Jefferson County. 1 Safe Republican, 2 Republican Favored, 1 Toss Up, 2 Leans Democrat, 2 Democrat Favored.

House Districts 30-35 Broomfield and Adams Counties. 5 Democrat, 1 Toss Up.

House Districts 36-42 Arapahoe and Elbert Counties. 3 Safe Republican (Including 1 pick up), 2 Safe Democrat, 1 Democrat Favored, 1 Leans Democrat.

House Districts 43-45 Douglas and Teller Counties. All Safe Republican.

House Districts 46 and 47 Pueblo. Safe Democrat.

House Districts 48-52 North Central Colorado. 48, 49, 51 Safe Republican, 52 Leans Democrat, 50, 53 Safe Democrat.

House Districts 54-62 Mountains and West Slope. 54, 57 and 60 Safe Republican. 58 and 59 Lean Republican. 55 Leans Democrat. 56, 61 and 62 Safe Democrat.

House Districts 63-65 East Plains. 63 and 65 Safe Republican. 64 Safe Democrat.

Final US Senate Projection.

2008-11-02T22:14:00.004-07:00

Here is our final US Senate Projection for the 2008 cycle. We are projecting a Democratic gain of 8 seats.

Here are the states that the Democrats should pick up, listed from most likely to least likely.

Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Minnesota.

Final Projection: 2008 US Senate 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans (including both independents as Democrats).

South Projection.

2008-11-02T21:34:00.002-07:00

Overall ten states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Republican +2.

North Carolina: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NC-8 Toss Up.
South Carolina: No Change.
Georgia: GA-8 Toss Up.
Florida: House FL-8 GOP Hold, FL-16 GOP Pick Up, FL-21 GOP Hold, FL-24 Toss Up, FL-25 GOP Hold.
Alabama: House AL-2 GOP Hold, AL-5 Toss Up.
Tennessee: No Change.
Mississippi: House MS-1 Toss Up.
Arkansas: No Change.
Louisiana: House LA-6 Toss Up.
Texas: House TX-22 GOP Pick Up.

Mid Atlantic and Border States.

2008-11-02T21:17:00.002-07:00

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Democrat +1.

New Jersey: House NJ-3 Toss Up, NJ-7 Toss Up.
Delaware: No Change.
Maryland: No Change.
Virginia: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House VA-11 Democrat Pick Up.
West Virginia: No Change.
Kentucky: No Change.

New England Projection.

2008-11-02T21:01:00.003-07:00

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change 0.

Maine: No Change.
Vermont: No Change.
New Hampshire: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NH-1 Toss Up.
Massachusetts: No Change.
Rhode Island: No Change.
Connecticut: House CT-4 Toss Up.

Great Lakes Projection.

2008-10-29T20:08:00.002-06:00

Overall eight states, net senate change 0, net house change Democrat +4.

Minnesota: Senate Republican Hold, House MN-3 Toss UP, MN-6 Toss Up.
Wisconsin: House WI-8 Toss Up.
Michigan: House MI-7 Toss Up, MI-9 Toss Up.
Illinois: House IL-10 Toss Up, IL-11 Democrat Pick Up.
Indiana: House IN-3 Toss Up.
Ohio: House OH-1 Toss Up, OH-2 Republican Hold, OH-15 Democrat Pick Up, OH-16 Democrat Pick Up.
Pennsylvania: House PA-3 Toss Up, PA-10 Toss Up, PA-11 Republican Pick Up.
New York: House NY-13 Democrat Pick Up, NY-25 Democrat Pick Up, NY-26 Republican Hold, NY-29 Toss Up.

Electoral Vote Projection Update November 03 2008

2008-10-29T19:49:00.003-06:00

Three Blue Dudes has averaged all of the prediction pages out there and they now have Obama winning the Presidency with about 320 electoral votes. Fifty more than the 270 needed.

Our projection as it stands today is that Obama will win with 353 electoral votes versus McCain's 185.

Great Plains Projection.

2008-10-29T19:20:00.003-06:00

Overall seven states, net senate change 0, net house change Republican +1.

North Dakota: No Change.
South Dakota: No Change.
Nebraska: No Change.
Kansas: House KS-2 Republican Pickup.
Oklahoma: No Change.
Missouri: House MO-6 Republican Hold, MO-9 Republican Hold.
Iowa: No Change.

Mountain States Projection.

2008-10-29T19:10:00.005-06:00

Overall eight states, net senate change Democrat +2, net house change Democrat +1.

Arizona: House AZ-1 Democratic Pickup, AZ-3 Republican Hold.
Nevada: House NV-3 Toss UP.
Utah: No Change.
Idaho: No Change.
Montana: No Change.
Wyoming: No Change.
Colorado: Senate Democratic Pickup, House CO-4 Toss Up.
New Mexico: Senate Democratic Pickup, House NM-1 Toss Up, NM-2 Toss Up.

Pacific States Projection.

2008-10-29T19:05:00.003-06:00

Overall five states, net senate change Democrat +2, net house change Democrat +3.

Alaska: Senate: Democratic Pickup, House AL: Democratic Pickup
Hawaii: No change.
Washington: House WA-8: Toss up.
Oregon: Senate: Democratic Pickup.
California: House CA-4: Democratic Pickup.

Electoral vote projection Update October 24, 2008

2008-10-24T00:18:00.004-06:00

US House Projection Update September 17, 2008

2008-09-17T12:22:00.004-06:00

Our current projection for the US House is D-249 R-186. That is a Democratic pickup of 13 seats.

Other sites with House Projections.

Isto Pensitaris D-244 R-191
Vote Projections 2008 D-244 R-191
Electoral-Vote.com D-243 R-192
Election Projection D-245 R-190
Open Left D-248 R-181 Toss Up 6
CQ Politics D-236 R-183 Toss Up-16
Campaign Diaries D-253 R-182 Toss Up-4
PollShark D-236 R-186 Toss Up-13
The Conservative Hawk D-244 R-191

And of course a huge hat tip to 3 Blue Dudes. Their election projection database rocks.

Look for updates to our State House and Senate pages in the next 48 hours.

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 16, 2008

2008-09-16T17:41:00.006-06:00

Here is a look at our Top Ten Battleground States:

Colorado: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Florida: Leans Republican.
Michigan: Leans Democrat.
Minnesota: Leans Democrat.
Nevada: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
New Hampshire: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
New Mexico: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Ohio: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
Pennsylvania: Leans Democrat.
Virginia: Toss Up Leaning Republican.

Our projection as it stands now: Obama 273 vs McCain 265. No Change From Last Update.

Battle Ground States Detail, all Intrade quotes are for Democratic futures. Numbers can be thought of as percentages. For example a quote of 65 equals a 65% probability of the Democratic nominee picking up that states electoral votes.

Colorado:

Pollster Colorado Home Page.

Florida:

Pollster Florida Home Page

Michigan:

Pollster Michigan Home Page.

Minnesota:

Pollster Minnesota Home Page.

Nevada:

Pollster Nevada Home Page.

New Hampshire:

Pollster New Hampshire Home Page.

New Mexico:

Pollster New Mexico Home Page.

Ohio:

Pollster Ohio Home Page.

Pennsylvania:

Pollster Pennsylvania Home Page.

Virginia:

Pollster Virginia Home Page.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 11 September 2008

2008-09-11T14:18:00.002-06:00

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Leans Democratic Pickup
Colorado: Leans Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Leans Democratic Hold
Minnesota: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican Hold
New Hampshire: Democrat Favored Pickup
North Carolina: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Oregon: Leans Republican Hold

Virginia and New Mexico are such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Elite Eight Detail.

Races where we forecast party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)

Pollster Poll Average

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)

Pollster Poll Average

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R)

Pollster Poll Average.

Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)

Pollster Page for Wicker vs. Musgrove.

North Carolina: Dole (R) inc vs. Hagan (D)

Pollster Page for Dole vs. Hagen.

Oregon: Smith (R) inc vs. Merkley (D)

Pollster Page for Smith vs. Merkley.

Electoral vote projection 2008 Intrade home page.

2008-09-11T11:52:00.003-06:00

The variable that has the highest weight in our model is the intrade markets. Today marks a milestone, the first time ever that McCain futures are trading for more than Obama futures.

Of course this election isn't a national referendum, it is instead fifty one different elections, and the popular vote has no meaning what so ever, so our current projection is still favoring Obama, but if Colorado flips into the McCain column than McCain will take the lead in our projection for the first time also.

If you hate the electoral college and want to go to a national popular vote visit National Popular Vote.

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 9, 2008

2008-09-09T21:26:00.004-06:00

Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Ohio.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 273 electoral votes to McCain's 265.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (5): Republican; Ohio, Nevada and Virginia. Democrat; Colorado and New Hampshire.

Leans (6): Republican; Florida, Missouri and Montana. Democrat; Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania.

Favored (5) Republican; Indiana and North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (20): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 28 States and 265 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 22 States and DC with 273 Electoral Votes.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 02 September 2008

2008-09-02T16:33:00.005-06:00

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Likely Democratic Pickup
Colorado: Leans Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Leans Democratic Hold
Minnesota: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican Hold
New Hampshire: Likely Democratic Pickup
North Carolina: Republican Leaning Hold
Oregon: Republican Leaning Hold

Virginia and New Mexico are such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44. We have moved the Mississippi Special into the Leans Republican category. No state since 1966 has voted to elect Senator's of different parties during the same election.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 1, 2008

2008-09-01T08:33:00.003-06:00

Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Virginia.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 293 electoral votes to McCain's 245.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (5): Republican; Nevada and Virginia. Democrat; Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Leans (5): Republican; Florida, Missouri and Montana. Democrat; Michigan, New Mexico.

Favored (7) Republican; Indiana, North Carolina and North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (19): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 27 States and 245 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 23 States and DC with 293 Electoral Votes.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update August 15, 2008

2008-08-15T13:48:00.006-06:00

Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Nevada.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 306 electoral votes to McCain's 232.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (3): Republican; Indiana and Nevada. Democrat; Virginia.

Leans (5): Republican; Florida. Democrat; Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Likely (8): Republican; Missouri, Montana, North Carolinaand North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Favored (6) Republican; Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia and South Dakota. Democrat; Maine and Minnesota.

Safe Republican (14): Alabama, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 26 States and 232 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 24 States and DC with 306 Electoral Votes.

Breakdown of the changes:

Nevada is still basically in the toss up category, with less than a sixty percent probablity of going one way or the other, it has however moved from the Democratic to the Republican column.

Florida moved from likely to leans Republican.

Missouri, Montana and North Carolina all moved from Republican favored to likely Republican.

Wisconsin fell from Democrat favored to likely Democrat.

South Carolina and Alaska both moved from likely Republican to Republicn Favored.

Arkansas fell from safe Republican to Rebublican favored.

Maine fell from safe Democrat to Democrat favored.

Mississippi rose from Republican favored to safe Republican.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 09 August 2008

2008-08-09T22:47:00.004-06:00

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Likely Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Democratic Toss Up
Maine: Likely Republican
Minnesota: Likely Republican
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican
New Hampshire: Likely Democratic Pickup
North Carolina: Leans Republican
Oregon: Republican Toss Up

Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are all such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44. We have moved the Mississippi Special into the Leans Republican category. No state since 1966 has voted to elect Senator's of different parties during the same election. We are surprised by the weakness of the Democratic incumbent in Louisiana. It appears that her vote in against the development of oil shale as a favor to Colorado Senator Ken Salazar (D) is hurting her.

This You Tube Video put up by the SRCC08 has gotten a lot of media attention in Colorado and Nationally.

Mary Landrieu (D) is certainly paying a heavy political price for her vote against expanding domestic oil production at the behest of Senator Salazar.

Mary Landrieu Voted Against Expanding Domestic Oil Production At The Request Of Senator Ken Salazar (D-C0), Despite Saying It Was Against Her General Philosophy. “‘Sen. Salazar asked me to vote no. I did so at his request,’ Landrieu said. ‘But I also told him because it's contrary to my normal philosophy that I’m going to reserve the right to work with him…’” (M.E. Sprengelmeyer, “Oil shale hits roadblock in Senate,” The Denver Post, 5/15/08)

Landrieu Was The Deciding Vote: “The fate of the amendment was sealed when Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., announced that, although she would support such a measure on the floor, she had agreed to oppose the amendment in committee at the behest of Democratic colleagues.” (Terry Kivlan, “Senate Panel Passes $193 Billion War Supplemental Bill,” National Journal’s CongressDaily, 5/16/08)”

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

US Senate Race Ratings Chart

2008-08-09T22:28:00.002-06:00

Toss Up (2): Republican; Oregon. Democrat; Louisiana.

Leans (2): Republican; Mississippi Special, North Carolina. Democrat; None.

Likely (6): Republican; Kentucky, Maine and Minnesota. Democrat; Alaska (Pickup), Colorado (Pickup) and New Hampshire (Pickup).

Favored (2) Republican; Idaho and Texas. Democrat; None.

Safe Republican (10): Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi Regular, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wyoming Special and Wyoming Regular.

Safe Democrat (13): Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico (Pickup), Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia (Pickup) and West Virginia.

Current Senate Make Up: D-51 R-49 including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats.

Projected Senate Make Up: D-56 R-44 including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats.

Colorado State House Race Ratings Chart.

2008-08-07T01:54:00.002-06:00

Current Make Up: Democrats 40 Republicans 25. Projected Make Up: Democrats 36 Republicans 26 Toss Up 4

Safe Republican 22

Safe Democrat 22

Republican Favored 3

Democrat Favored 8

Leans Republican 1

Leans Democrat 5

Toss Up Republican Held 0

Toss Up Democrat Held 4

Colorado State Senate Race Ratings Chart.

2008-08-07T01:45:00.003-06:00

Current Make Up: 20 Democrats 15 Republicans. Projected Make Up: Democrats 18 Republicans 15 Toss Up 2

No Election: R-8 D-8

Safe Republican (4): SD 27, SD 4, SD 10, SD 12

Safe Democrat (8): SD 17, SD 18, SD 25, SD 28, SD 29, SD 31, SD 33, SD 35

Republican Favored (1): SD 26

Democrat Favored (2): SD 14, SD 21

Leans Republican (0): SD 8, SD 23

Leans Democrat (0)

Toss Up Republican Held (0)

Toss Up Democrat Held (2): SD 16, SD 19

Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart.

2008-08-07T01:33:00.002-06:00

Toss Up (4): Republican; Florida and Indiana. Democrat; Nevada and Virginia.

Leans (7): Republican; Missouri, Montana and North Carolina. Democrat; Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Likely (6): Republican; Alaska, North Dakota and South Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, New Mexico and Pennsylvania.

Favored (4) Republican; Georgia and Mississippi. Democrat; Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (15): Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 25 States and 227 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 25 States and DC with 311 Electoral Votes.

Electoral Vote Projection Update August 6, 2008

2008-08-06T12:12:00.007-06:00

Our prediction remains unchanged at Obama 311 McCain 227.

Here are what some of the other projection sites say:

Electoral-Vote.com predicts Obama 289 McCain 236 Toss Up 13.

3 Blue Dudes predicts Obama 260 McCain 157 Toss Up 121.

Election Projection (our original inspiration) predicts Obama 298 McCain 240

3 Blue Dudes has a great Election Projection Project Data Base where they have links to every projection website that they have found. If your really into politics, this website is nirvana for you. You can find it by clicking here.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

State House and State Senate Prediction Update.

2008-08-05T00:31:00.003-06:00

Here is our new projection for the Colorado State Senate and Colorado State House elections.

State Senate: Current D-20 R-15 Projection D-18 R-15 Toss up-2

State House: Current D-40 R-25 Projection D-36 R-26 Toss up-4

Detailed analysis will be up shortly along with a map of the State House Districts.

State House Districts: Douglas County and Teller County.

2008-07-31T00:56:00.004-06:00

Colorado State House District 43 (HD 43): Safe Republican. Frank McNulty (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.frankmcnulty.com/ CO Maps HD 43 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 44 (HD 44): Safe Republican. Mike May (R) Junior* Contact: http://www.mike-may.org/ CO Maps HD 44 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 45 (HD 45): Safe Republican. Open CO Maps HD 45 Page Here.

State House Districts: Arapahoe and Elbert County.

2008-07-30T01:11:00.005-06:00

Colorado State House District 36 (HD 36): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 36 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 37 (HD 37): Safe Republican. Spencer Swalm (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.swalmforhd37.org/ CO Maps HD 37 Page Here. Spencer Swalm Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 38 (HD 38): Leans Democrat. Joe Rice (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.votejoerice.com/ CO Maps HD 38 Page Here. Joe Rice Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 39 (HD 39): Safe Republican. David Balmer (R) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.davidbalmer.com/ CO Maps HD 39 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 40 (HD 40): Safe Republican Pickup. Open CO Maps HD 40 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 41 (HD 41): Safe Democrat. Nancy Todd (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.nancytodd.org/ CO Maps HD 41 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 42 (HD 42): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 42 Page Here.

State House Districts: El Paso and Fremont County.

2008-07-30T00:35:00.004-06:00

Colorado State House District 14 (HD 14): Safe Republican. Kent Lambert (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.kentlambert.com/ CO Maps HD 14 Page Here. Kent Lambert Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 15 (HD 15): Safe Republican. Douglas Bruce (R) Red Shirt Freshman* Contact: http://www.state.co.us/gov_dir/leg_dir/House/members/Hou15.html CO Maps HD 15 Page Here. Douglas Bruce Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 16 (HD 16): Safe Republican. Larry Liston (R) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.larrylistonforhd16.com/ CO Maps HD 16 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 17 (HD 17): Republican Favored. Stella Hicks (R) Freshman* Contact: stella.hicks.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 17 Page Here. Stella Hicks Wikipedia Page here.

Colorado State House District 18 (HD 18): Democrat Favored. Michael Merrifield (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.michaelmerrifield.org/ CO Maps HD 18 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 19 (HD 19): Safe Republican. Marsha Looper (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.gomarsha.org/ CO Maps HD 19 Page Here. Marsha Looper Wikipedia here.

Colorado State House District 20 (HD 20): Safe Republican. Amy Stephens (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.amystephens4hd20.com/ CO Maps HD 20 Page Here. Amy Stephens Wikipedia here.

Colorado State House District 21 (HD 21): Safe Republican. Bob Gardner (R) Sophomore* Contact: bob.gardner.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 21 Page Here. Bob Gardner Wikipedia here.

State House Districts: Broomfield and Adams County.

2008-07-29T19:34:00.004-06:00

Adams County GOP here.

Adams County Democrats here.

Colorado State House District 30 (HD 30): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 30 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 31 (HD 31): Leans Democrat. Judy Solano (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.judysolano.com/ CO Maps HD 31 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 32 (HD 32): Safe Democrat. Edward Casso (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.edwardcassofor32.org/ CO Maps HD 32 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 33 (HD 33): To Close to Call. Dianne Primavera (D) Freshman* Contact: http://dianneprimavera.com/ CO Maps HD 33 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 34 (HD 34): Safe Democrat. John Soper (D) Freshman* Contact: johnsoper235@comcast.net CO Maps HD 34 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 35 (HD 35): Safe Democrat. Cherylin Peniston (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.cherylinpeniston.com/ CO Maps HD 35 Page Here.

State House Districts: Boulder, Gilpin and Clear Creek Counties. HD 10-13

2008-07-27T23:57:00.003-06:00

The four House Districts that are centered around Boulder County reliably elect Democrats.

Colorado State House District 10 (HD 10): Safe Democrat. Open. CO Maps HD 10 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 11 (HD 11): Safe Democrat. Jack Pommer (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.hd11.org/ CO Maps HD 11 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 12 (HD 12): Safe Democrat. Paul Weissmann (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.paulinthehouse.com/ CO Maps HD 12 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 13 (HD 13): Safe Democrat. Claire Levy (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.clairelevy.org/ CO Maps HD 13 Page Here.

Electoral vote projection Update July 27, 2008

2008-07-27T23:14:00.002-06:00

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 311 electoral votes to McCain's 227.

Missouri has moved from going from Obama to McCain. It is our only change this week.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Michigan and Pennsylvania are dropping off and becoming safe democratic states. North Carolina and North Dakota are moving into the competitive column.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Florida, Indiana and Missouri.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado and New Mexico.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

State House Districts: Jefferson County

2008-07-26T17:57:00.006-06:00

Map of Jeffco Precincts.
Jefferson County GOP
Jefferson County Democrats

Jefferson County is the front line in the battle for control of the State Legislature. The last three elections have been disastrous for the GOP. The Democrats have made major gains in this suburban county. Here is a recent post from Face the State, a conservative website, that outlines the setbacks the GOP has experienced in Jeffco, as it is known locally.

Colorado State House District 22 (HD 22): Republican Favored. Ken Summers (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.ken4colorado.com/index.html CO Maps HD 22 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 23 (HD 23): Leans Democrat. Gwyn Green (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.gwyngreen.com/ CO Maps HD 23 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 24 (HD 24): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 24 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 25 (HD 25): Republican Favored. Open CO Maps HD 25 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 26 (HD 26): Democrat Favored. Andrew Kerr (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.andykerr.org/ CO Maps HD 26 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 27 (HD 27): No Clear Favorite. Sara Gagliardi (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.saragagliardi.com/ CO Maps HD 27 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 28 (HD 28): Safe Republican. James Kerr (R) Freshman* Contact: james.kerr.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 28 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 29 (HD 29): Leans Democrat. Debbie Benefield (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.debbiebenefield.org/ CO Maps HD 29 Page Here.

* Members of the Colorado House can only serve four terms (well four and a half, but that is pretty rare) so we divide them into classes, Freshman, Sophomore, Junior and Senior. Senior's are term limited (unless otherwise noted).

Colorado State House Districts: City and County of Denver

2008-07-26T17:13:00.005-06:00

Here is a map State House District 1-9, all centered within the City and County of Denver.

All nine of these House Districts are listed as Safe Democratic Seats. All of them have the majority of their voting populations inside the City and County of Denver. You should click on the link to the CO Map page for each district, CO Maps is a wealth of information.

Colorado State House District 1 (HD 1): Safe Democrat. Jeanne Labuda (D) Freshman* Contact: http://repjeannelabuda.com/ CO Maps HD 1 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 2 (HD 2): Safe Democrat. Mark Ferrandino (D) Appointed Freshman* Contact: mark.ferrandino.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 2 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 3 (HD 3): Safe Democrat. Anne McGihon (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.annemcgihon.com/ CO Maps HD 3 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 4 (HD 4): Safe Democrat. K.Jerry Frangas (D) Junior* Contact: kjerry.frangas.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 4 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 5 (HD 5): Safe Democrat. Joel Judd (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.joeljudd.com/ CO Maps HD 5 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 6 (HD 6): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 6 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 7 (HD 7): Safe Democrat. Terrance Carroll (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.terrancecarroll.com/ CO Maps HD 7 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 8 (HD 8): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 8 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 9 (HD 9): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 9 Page Here.

* Members of the Colorado House can only serve four terms (well four and a half, but that is pretty rare) so we divide them into classes, Freshman, Sophomore, Junior and Senior. Senior's are term limited (unless otherwise noted).

Honey Moon for Colorado Governor Bill Ritter Seems to be Over.

2008-07-25T00:11:00.002-06:00

The Democratic party has had a remarkable rise in Colorado. In 2002 the GOP held both houses of the State Legislature, the Governor's office, five out of seven US House Seats and both Senate Seats. Today the Colorado Republican party has lost two of its five US House Seats, a Senate Seat, the Governor's mansion and both houses of the State Legislature. It looked like the DNC convention scheduled for late August in Denver was going to be the crowning moment of the new Democratic alignment.

However, over the past few days a few news stories have come out that suggest that the Democratic hold on Colorado may be more tenuous than anyone would have thought a few weeks ago. A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows that the percentage of Coloradans that rate Governor Bill Ritter as either doing a "good" or "excellent" job has slipped by 13 points since May. The poll seems to be flawed in that it doesn't just ask if you approve or disapprove of the Governor's job. Instead it had many more options. The analysis from later in the Denver Post story seems to have captured more of what is going on in Colorado.

He has become a more partisan-appearing figure," Ciruli (a Denver based Pollster and Political Analyst) said of Ritter. "He (was elected) over (Republican Bob) Beauprez with a very significant amount of Republican support and a strong number of unaffiliated voters. He appeared at that time to be more conservative and not so controversial."
Ciruli said Ritter's efforts to give collective-bargaining rights to state employees stoked opposition among Republicans in particular.
The governor's standing, Ciruli said, also suffered when a district judge this year ruled a Ritter-backed property-tax freeze unconstitutional. The ruling is being appealed.
Ritter also has faced pushback over his support for eliminating a tax break for the oil and gas industry and over his support for restrictions on expanding oil and gas development, Ciruli said.
His policies aside, Ritter's lower poll numbers this summer also may reflect a general unease among voters in a time of rising gasoline and food prices, Ciruli said.
"One of the factors is that even in Colorado, which to some extent has been immune to the repercussions of the declining economy, it's finally caught up to us," he said.

In a Op-Ed piece from earlier this week Ciruli outlined how significantly Ritter's polling drop is:

Surprisingly, new Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter may be in trouble. When compared with his Montana counterpart, Gov. Brian Schweitzer, in recent Rasmussen polls, Ritter's job rating lags behind Schweitzer by 19 points. Only 45 percent of Colorado voters gave Ritter an excellent or good job rating, whereas 64 percent of Montanans rated Schweitzer as doing an excellent or good job.

On top of all of this the State Democrats have to deal with rising scandals associated with the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Security concerns have become a giant head ache. Additionally, a scandal over the DNC not paying gas taxes hit this week.

Members of the committee hosting the Democratic National Convention are filling their car gas tanks at city-owned gas pumps, avoiding state and federal fuel taxes.

Even the Denver Post's left center Op Ed page chastised the apparent no tax deal for the DNC.

So, let's get this straight: While the rest of us poor schlubs have been grimacing as we put $4 a gallon gas into our cars, local organizers of the Democratic National Convention have been pumping tax-free gas into theirs?
That's just wrong. The local committee hosting the DNC ought to pay the same state and federal taxes — which amount to 40 cents a gallon — that the rest of us pay.
The disclosure came at a regular Denver City Council meeting Tuesday, and by the end of the day it seemed that everyone involved was quickly backpedaling and promising that local organizers indeed would be paying taxes on gas.
Good. But the larger issue, of course, is whether and how taxpayers might find themselves subsidizing the DNC.,,

As for the gas situation, we've heard it was an effort to give local DNC organizers a secure place to fill up, a concern should they have dignitaries in the car.
That sounds like a stretch. If you're ferrying some Democratic hotshot from the airport to a hotel, wouldn't you fill up first? It doesn't seem plausible that you'd take such a guest by the city yards to tank up.
A host committee spokesman told the Rocky Mountain News that they used city pumps because it's safer and the gas isn't "tainted."

US Senate Projection Update 22 July 2008

2008-07-22T13:17:00.002-06:00

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Weak Democratic Pickup (60% probability)
Louisiana: Weak Democratic Hold (60%)
Maine: Moderate Republican Hold (70%)
Minnesota: Moderate Republican Hold (67%)
Mississippi Special: Weak Democratic Pickup (60%)
New Hampshire: Strong Democratic Pickup (78%)
North Carolina: Moderate Republican Hold (61%)
Oregon: Weak Republican Hold (57%)

Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are all such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 57 Republicans 43. No change from last projection.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update July 18, 2008

2008-07-18T00:09:00.002-06:00

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

There is no change from our last projection.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Michigan and Pennsylvania are dropping off and becoming safe democratic states. North Carolina and North Dakota are moving into the competitive column.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Florida and Indiana.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

Colorado State Senate Update July 17, 2008

2008-07-17T13:16:00.004-06:00

Our current projection for the State Senate is D 18 R 15 Toss Up 2

Click on the image above for a bigger version of the map.

Senate District 16 and 19 are the most competitive districts right now. Even if the GOP picks up both seats they will not be able to gain control of the State Senate. Maybe if they could get a candidate for district 20? Anyway, it looks like Jefferson County will be the front line for this years battle for the State Senate.

If you have any comments, suggestions, inside info or corrections, please e-mail us at milehighdelphi@yahoo.com.

Schaffer vs Udall Debate Reaction.

2008-07-16T00:50:00.002-06:00

We here at MHD try our best to be non-biased. The conventional wisdom seems to be coming down on the side of Bob Shaffer winning the first debate in the Colorado senate race.

Here is a link to Channel 9. From their page you can watch the video yourself. Watch the debate here and make up your own mind.

"Colorado Model" Making Media Waves.

2008-07-15T23:58:00.002-06:00

In a recent Weekly Standard article, Fred Barnes outlined "The Colorado Model."

The Democratic surge in Colorado reflects the national trend, but it involves a great deal more. There's something unique going on in Colorado that, if copied in other states, has the potential to produce sweeping Democratic gains nationwide. That something is the "Colorado Model," and it's certain to be a major topic of discussion when Democrats convene in Denver in the last week of August for their national convention.

While the Colorado Model isn't a secret, it hasn't drawn much national attention either. Democrats, for now anyway, seem wary of touting it. One reason for their reticence is that it depends partly on wealthy liberals' spending tons of money not only on "independent expenditures" to attack Republican office-seekers but also to create a vast infrastructure of liberal organizations that produces an anti-Republican, anti-conservative echo chamber in politics and the media.

Liberal reaction in Colorado has been mixed. Colorado Pols is a daily read for us here at Mile High Delphi. Colorado Pols is dominated by liberals, but it is still the best place to get the "inside baseball" gossip on Colorado politics.

...total spending (hard and soft) on campaigns in Colorado leans our way for 2004 and 2006. Not by a huge amount, but thanks to a ton of small donors -- and above all Jared, Tim, Pat, and Rutt -- we actually have outspent them. -Boulder Dem

Reading through the posts on Colorado Pols, it is easy to see that the liberal prognosticoti see that the main reason that they have won in Colorado is because they are right, not because they are logistically better prepared now than in the early part of the decade.

The conservatives fail to reconize that a great swath of the unaffiliated voters in Colorado have turned into reliable democratic voters. They can ignore these voters at their own peril.

Here at MHD we have seen the "Colorado Model" for years. However, we don't believe that it is as simple as the "Gang of Four" or that the GOP was too conservative. Amendment 27, passed in 2002, critically wounded the ability of the GOP to fundraise. Until the GOP learns to compete under the rules of 27, the Colorado Model will continue.

US Senate Projection Update 11 July 2008

2008-07-11T02:47:00.003-06:00

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Weak Democratic Pickup (59% probability)
Colorado: Strong Democratic Pickup (81%)
Louisiana: Weak Democratic Hold (57%)
Minnesota: Moderate Republican Hold (62%)
Mississippi Special: Moderate Democratic Pickup (61%)
New Hampshire: Strong Democratic Pickup (75%)
North Carolina: Moderate Republican Hold (65%)
Oregon: Weak Republican Hold (59%)

Virginia and New Mexico are both such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 57 Republicans 43. No change from last projection.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update July 8, 2008

2008-07-08T10:41:00.002-06:00

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

There is no change from our last projection.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Iowa is dropping off and becoming a safe democratic state and surprizingly enough Montana is moving into the competitive column, although we are still giving its votes to McCain.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
Montana, Florida and Indiana.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update June 24th 2008

2008-06-24T00:34:00.001-06:00

Our new Senate Projection is unchanged from our last one. We forecast the Democrats picking up six seats.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update June 24th

2008-06-24T00:12:00.003-06:00

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

Two more states have gone into the Democratic column this week, Nevada and Missouri.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 20 June 2008

2008-06-19T23:42:00.004-06:00

Like with our Electoral Projection we will no longer have toss ups. As things stand now our map stays the same, with the Democrats picking up six seats. Including Liberman and Sanders, the two independents who caucus with the Democrats, the Senate will be made up of 57 Democrats and 43 Republicans after the election of 2008.

Below is a chart of the ten closest races:

Alaska D 52.5% Pick Up
Louisiana D 55% Hold
Minnesota R 59.9% Hold
Mississippi (Special) D 60% Pick Up
Oregon R 64.2 Hold
Colorado D 65% Pick Up
New Hampshire D 68% Pick Up
North Carolina R 70% Hold
New Mexico D 75% Pick Up
Virginia D 89.9% Pick Up

Race specific pages will be coming up in the next few weeks.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Mid June 2008

2008-06-18T00:19:00.004-06:00

After much thought we have decided to modify our projection. We will no longer have toss up states.

Our electoral vote home page is here.

Our current projection shows Obama beating McCain 306 Electoral votes to 232.

Here is a quick look at the dirty dozen most competitive states:

Leaning Republican:

Nevada 51% probability of voting for McCain.
Missouri 57.5% probability of voting for McCain.
Florida 71% probability of voting for McCain.
Indiana 75% probability of voting for McCain.

Leaning Democrat:

Virgina 50.1% probability of voting for Obama.
New Hampshire 54% probability of voting for Obama.
Ohio 62.9% probability of voting for Obama.
Colorado 67% probability of voting for Obama.
New Mexico 68.5% probability of voting for Obama.
Pennsylvania 75% probability of voting for Obama.
Iowa 76% probability of voting for Obama.
Michigan 77% probability of voting for Obama.

Every other state a better than 80% probability of voting for either one of the candidates.

A closer look at polling, along with a new senate update will be up this week.

Colorado Politics 101: How liberal our our Democrats?

2008-06-05T19:40:00.002-06:00

Every year the National Journal publishes a list of the members of the House and Senate, they are ranked, based upon their voting behavior, from most liberal to most conservative.

First we will look at Colorado's Democratic Delegation.

Senator Salazar is ranked as the 42nd most liberal Senator, placing him squarely in moderate territory among such Senators as Jim Webb (D) of Virginia, Byron Dorgan (D) of North Dakota and Joe Liberman (ind. D) of Conn.

As for the House Delegation. Representaive Degette (Denver) is far and away the most liberal member of the Colorado Delegation. She is ranked as the 36th most liberal member of the House. The other three Democrats are bunched together towards the more moderate wing of the party. Perlmutter ranks at 150th, Udall ranks at 181st and Salazar ranks as 190th.

Overall we can see that the Colorado Democratic Delegation is more moderate than the average Democrat, with only Diana Degette ranking among the most liberal members of the Congress.

US Senate Projection Update 1 June 2008

2008-06-01T18:46:00.003-06:00

US Senate Homepage

Current Projection: Democrats gain 6 seats. Results D-57 R-43

The elite eight most competitive Senate Races:

Races are listed by how competitive they are based upon Intrade probabilities:

(1) Previous Rank (4)

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D) Intrade gives Begich a 50% probability of winning. This race has been all over the map, in April Begich went from a probability of winning in the mid 30% up to 60%. During the last few weeks the race has tightened up again.

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46.75% to 42.75%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Alaska Intrade page here.

Democrat pickup.

(2) Previous Rank (2)

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R) Intrade gives Landrieu a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 41.67% to 44.67%.

Intrade Louisiana page here.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

No change in party control.

(2) Previous Rank (3)

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D) Intrade gives Coleman a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.8% to 44%.

Intrade Minnesota page here.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

No change in party control.

(4) Previously not ranked.
North Carolina: Dole (R) inc vs. Hagen (D) Intrade gives Dole a 57.5% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Dole leading Hagen 47.7% to 44.5%.

Intrade NC page here.

Pollster page for Dole vs. Hagen.

No change in party control.

(5)Previous Rank (6)
Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R) Intrade gives Udall a 60% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 46.8% to 41.5%.

Intrade Colorado page here.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Democrat pickup.

(6) Previous Rank (1)

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D) Intrade gives Musgrove a 63% probability of picking up Trent Lott's former seat in this special election.

The average of the polls shows Wicker edging Musgrove 44.7% to 44%. Pollster's Mississippi special election page is here.

Intrade's Mississippi Special page is here.

Democrat pickup.

(7) Previously Not Ranked

Oregon: Smith (R) inc vs. Merkley (D). Intrade gives Smith a 64.2% probability of retaining his seat this election.

Average of the polls shows Smith beating Merkley 44.9% to 42.4%. Polster page for Smith vs. Merkley is here.

Intrade page for Oregon is here.

No change in party control.

(8)Previous (7)

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R) Intrade gives Udall a 70% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 55.5% to 37.4% and Udall beating Wilson 58.9% to 35.6%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Intrade NM page here.
Democrat pickup.

No longer in the Elite eight, but worth of note due to party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D) Intrade gives Shaheen a 67.5% probability of winning.

Pollster has the average of the polls showing Shaheen beating Sununu 49.7% to 40.2%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D) Intrade gives Warner a 82.5% probability of winning.

Pollster is showing Warner beating Gilmore 55.4% to 37.6%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

Who is going to win Indiana and North Carolina?

2008-05-06T12:48:00.002-06:00

Today the Democrats are having primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

According to Intrade, Hillary Clinton has a 88% probability of winning Indiana. Obama is the favorite in North Carolina with a 94% probability of winning.

Pollster.com has Clinton ahead in Indiana 48.6% to 44.4%. Real Clear Politics mirrors pollster with their poll average at 49% to 44%.

Pollster.com has Obama ahead in North Carolina with 49.6% to 42.3%. Real Clear Politic's average is about the same, with Obama leading Clinton 50% to 42%.

We predict that Obama will win North Carolina and Hillary will win Indiana.

So at the end of the day, the Democratic race will be at the same spot it was before.

Just as an aside, Intrade puts the probability that Obama will be the Democratic nominee at 77.9%. So it looks like these primaries are really much ado about nothing.

US Senate Projection Update April 30, 2008

2008-04-30T21:28:00.004-06:00

US Senate Homepage

Current Projection: Democrats gain 5 seats. Results D-56 R-44

The elite eight most competitive Senate Races:

Races are listed by how competitive they are based upon Intrade probabilities:

(1)Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D) No Polling
Intrade lists the races as 50/50 with no volume.

No change in party control.

(2)Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R) Intrade gives Landrieu a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

No change in party control.

(3)Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D) Intrade gives Coleman a 56% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

No change in party control.

(4)Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D) Intrade gives Begich a 62.5% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Democrat pickup.

(5)New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D) Intrade gives Shaheen a 64% probability of winning.

As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

(6)Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R) Intrade gives Udall a 64% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Democrat pickup.

(7)New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R) Intrade gives Udall a 75% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Democrat pickup.

(8)Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D) Intrade gives Warner a 80.5% probability of winning.

As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

Electoral Vote Projection Update Late April 2008.

2008-04-26T21:30:00.005-06:00

Our late April update shows the race for President tightening. If the election were held today neither party would have the 270 votes needed in order to win the presidency. We have the race nearly tied at D-234 R-240 Toss up-64.

Electoral vote projection home page here.

Super Competitive States:

Colorado: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Colorado at 60%.

Pollster.com has the average of Colorado polls for Obama vs. McCain at 43.7-46.7.

We are going to keep Colorado in the Toss Up category.

New Mexico: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Mexico at 64%.

Pollster.com has the average of New Mexico polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.5% to 47%.

We are going to keep New Mexico in the Toss Up category.

Nevada: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Nevada at 53%.

Pollster.com has the average of Nevada polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47-40.

We are going to keep Nevada in the Toss Up category.

Ohio: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Ohio at 62.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of Ohio polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7-45.3.

Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 42.7% for Obama and 45.3% for McCain.

We are going to keep Ohio in the Toss Up category.

Competitive States:

Iowa: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Iowa at 66%.

Pollster.com has the average of Iowa polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47.5 to 42.6.

Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 49.3% for Obama and 40% for McCain.

We have Iowa in the Democratic Category.

Minnesota: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Minnesota at 80%.

Pollster.com has the average of Minnesota polls for Obama vs. McCain at 51.1-39.7.

We have Minnesota in the Democratic Category.

New Hampshire: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Hampshire at 55%.

Pollster.com has the average of New Hampshire polls for Obama vs. McCain at 46-42.

We are putting New Hampshire's electoral votes in the Toss Up category..

Pennsylvania: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Pennsylvania at 67.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of the Pennsylvania polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7 to 45.2.

Real Clear Politics has the race tied at 43%.

We are moving Pennsylvania into the Toss Up Category.

Competitive States:

Arkansas: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Arkansas electoral votes at 26%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Arkansas with McCain leading Obama 53% to 30%.

We are giving Arkansas electoral votes to McCain.

Michigan: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Michigan's electoral votes at 78%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Michigan showing Obama leading McCain 42.5% to 41.2%.

We are keeping Michigan's electoral votes in the Democratic category.

Missouri: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Missouri's electoral votes at 42.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Missouri showing McCain beating Obama 52.8% to 39.9%.

We are giving Missouri's electoral votes to McCain.

Virginia: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Virginia's electoral votes at 44.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Virginia showing McCain beating Obama 52.3% to 43.1%.

We are putting Virginia's Electoral votes in the McCain category.

Who is going to win the Pennsylvania primary?

2008-04-20T21:59:00.002-06:00

Here is our look at the Pennsylvania primary:

Two questions need to be asked, firstly who is going to win and secondly by how much? Conventional wisdom says that Clinton has to win, and that she needs to win by a certain margin in order to continue her challenge to Barack Obama.

The first thing that we always look at is what the futures markets say. The intrade market for the Penn. primary says that Clinton has a 89% probability of winning. That is huge. Clinton is going to win Pennsylvania.

Now the only question is by how much? Here is a link to the pollster page for the Penn. primary. As of right now the poll average is Clinton 48.1% vs Obama 42%. That is a spread of 6.1%. Real Clear Politics has the spread at 5.3%, with Clinton beating Obama 47.6% to 42.3%.

We have seen Clinton consistently overperform her polling numbers this cycle. We put the spread at at least 7%.

Elite Eight Top Most Competitive Senate Races.

2008-04-15T19:45:00.004-06:00

US Senate Homepage Current Projection

Races where we forecast party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)

As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.

Pollster Poll Average

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)

As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.

Pollster Poll Average

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R)

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)

Electoral Projection Update 4/13/2008

2008-04-14T12:20:00.002-06:00

Our new projection shows neither party with 270 electoral votes. As it stands today the Democrats have 259 electoral votes, the Republicans have 240 and 39 are in the toss up category.

Dirty Dozen Top Competitive Electoral States

2008-04-11T18:15:00.002-06:00

We have divided these most competitive states into three tiers:

Tier one, super competitive: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and New Mexico.

Tier two, very competitive: Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

Tier three, competitive: Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas and Michigan.

A quick note, we only use three different variables in creating our models, firstly, futures markets, secondly we look at polling data and lastly we look at prior voting behavior. One other caveat, all of our data assumes that it is a McCain vs. Obama race in the fall.

Our full electoral update will be up by Monday, along with a US Senate update.

US House 2008 Projection.

2008-03-31T20:36:00.002-06:00

This projection is still under a considerable amount of construction. Tradesports doesn't have any US House markets up yet and until the primary season is over we won't even know who the major party candidates are in some districts.

At the end of the day, since this doesn't look like a wave election year, expect the Democrats to pick up 5-10 seats since so many Republicans are retiring.

Electoral Vote Projection Update March 28, 2008

2008-03-28T13:21:00.003-06:00

As things stand today, even with the Democratic infighting, our projection holds at D 284, R 216 with 38 toss ups.

Since you need 270 electorial votes to win, we project that the Democrats would win if the election were held today.

Senate Projection Update Late March 2008

2008-03-27T14:02:00.003-06:00

Our current US Senate Projection shows no race in the toss up category (less than 55% probability of winning). We now project that the Democrats will pick up, in order of highest probability, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. The Republicans are projected to pick up Louisiana. That is a net gain for the Democrats of three seats for a future Senate make up of D 54 R 46.

Coming Updates!

2008-03-26T16:22:00.002-06:00

It does take a while to get the oracle warmed up. We hate to give her too many questions at once. But this week we are putting her to the test.

Upcoming updates:

New Presidential Projection 03/28
New US Senate Projection 03/27
First US House Projection 03/30
Updated Colorado State Senate Projection 03/31

Recent analysis shows that the race for the White House is tightening. The long Democratic primary seems to be damaging the entire party. We didn't expect to see such tightening until late summer or fall.

Early next month we will put out our national analysis along with an analysis for Colorado. A quick preview: The national parties are frayed, the Republicans into three different factions and the Democrats into two. However the Democratic factions are in open warfare with each other while the Republican factions are sitting back and watching the fratricide. As for Colorado, we will examine the State Democratic party, look at which of the two Democratic factions are strongest here and examine the success of the Democratic leadership and how ballot items are helping the Democrats stay in office.

Update on Competitive State Senate Races.

2008-03-19T21:05:00.002-06:00

Four of the most potentially competitive seats that are up for election during this cycle:

District P-Diff $ Diff Win Diff
SD 8 D+4 R+17.5 R+3
SD 17 D+8 N/A N/A
SD 19 R+5.5 D+33.5 D+7.4
SD 26 R+9 R+0 R+2.6

We've chosen to look closely at these races because the incumbents won with less than 55% of the vote in 2004. As we have looked at comparable Senate Districts from 2006 we have seen one huge factor, no Democrat has won a race in a competitive district where the Republican out fundraised them. The same applies for the Republicans. Money is a huge factor in these races. We have a model that takes the effect of the money differential into account, but we won't be making predictions using it until after the primaries.

Electoral and Senate Updates for March 2008.

2008-03-08T16:25:00.004-07:00

If the election were held today, the Democrats would win the Presidency with 284 electorial votes. The GOP would get 216. 38 Electorial votes are toss ups.

Virginia, Nevada, Missouri and Colorado are currently toss ups. We have color coded them to show what party they are leaning toward.

As for the US Senate, our only change is that Minnesota has gone from 50-50 to 52.5% in favor of the GOP.

For a look at our past Presidential Projection click here. Senate projections are here.

Colorado State Senate 2008.

2008-03-03T13:25:00.005-07:00

Update July 17, 2008 D 18 R 15 Toss Up 2

The Colorado State Senate (hereto after referred to simply as the “Senate”) is made up of 35 members. Each member is elected to a four year term, and term limits state that no member shall serve more than two terms. Due to appointments and a court ruling a Senator can serve up to ten years, but in the vast majority of circumstances you can group Senators into one of two groups, either a first termer or a last termer. Elections are staggered for the Senate, with 18 seats up during presidential election years and 17 seats up during mid-term elections. The 18 seats that are up during presidential election years will be referred to as Class 1 and the remaining 17 Class 2 seats will be decided during the midterm elections two years later. The Senate is currently made up of only Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats have a five seat majority, meaning that the GOP must win three seats in order to take control of the chamber in 2009.
The Class 2 seats currently are made up of 8 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Of the Class 1 seats up for election during this cycle 14 of the seats are not competitive. Below we list the Senate Districts based upon their “partisan differential.” The P-Diff as we call it is basically either the Democratic or Republican Party’s registration advantage as a percentage.
Before we begin with a look at each Senate District in particular, let’s just do a quick macro view of the political landscape in Colorado. In 2004 the Democratic Party took control of the State Legislature for the first time in forty years. Colorado has moderated greatly since the beginning of Bush 41’s Presidency. All things being equal you would expect that if the registration between the two parties is equal, i.e. the P-Diff is 0, than each party would have an equal chance of winning the district. Today that is not true in Colorado. The “horizon” as we call it is currently somewhere out near R +7. That means that demographically, districts where the GOP has a 7% registration advantage are “toss ups.” As a matter of fact the GOP only holds one Senate District where they have less than a 9% registration advantage, SD 2 in southeast Colorado, which has a P Diff of R +2. Basically, the GOP has to slug it out in order to win districts where it holds single digit registration advantages, while Democrats easily skate to victory in comparable districts. As things stand right now, we only see four competitive districts this cycle, with each party having to defend two seats each. Since the GOP needs three seats to capture control of the Senate we put the probability of the GOP taking control of the Senate at 1%.
Our current projection is Democratic control: R 13-16 D 19-22
Here is a look at the four most competitive districts:
SD 19:
Open. P-Diff R +5.5. Westminster. Formerly held by Sue Windels (D) for eight years.
SD 23:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Broomfield. Shawn Mitchell (R) Running for re-election.
SD 8:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Northwestern Colorado. Formerly held by Jack Taylor (R) for eight years.
SD 14:
Incumbent Bob Bacon (D) is running for re-election. P-Diff R+2.5. Fort Collins.

Update 03/31/2008: This projection is very preliminary, we still have some more research to do and we need to mine a little more data, but if the election were held today the Colorado State Senate could switch control, even though it looks very unlikely. Our range shows that the Senate could go from a five seat Democratic majority to a two seat Republican majority. Most likely, the GOP may pick up one seat.

US Senate Projection 2008

2008-02-23T16:44:00.015-07:00

Update September 02, 2008. D-56 R-44

Update July 22, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update July 11, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 24, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 20, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 1, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update April 30, 2008 D-56 R-44

Elite Eight

Politics Nation Top Ten US Senate Races.

Update March 27, 2008. D-54 R-46

Update March 8, 2008. D-55 R-45

Original Post:

As things stand right now Mile High Delphi is projecting that the Democrats will pick up 4-5 seats in the US Senate.

Here is a look at the races in which we project Democratic gains.

New Hampshire is a state that is quickly changing from Republican to Democrat. Republican Senator John Sununu barely beat former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen six years ago, 51 to 46 percent. During the 2006 midterm elections both Republican congressmen lost their reelection campaigns. Look for the Democrats to continue their gains in New Hampshire.

Virginia is traveling down the same path as New Hampshire, albeit at a much more moderate pace. What was once a reliable Republican state has become a competitive battlefield for the GOP. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is certainly the favorite against Republican former Governor Jim Gilmore.

Colorado is another one of those moderating red states. While Democratic Presidential nominees have a hard time winning in Colorado, the state's congressional delegation has swung from seven Republicans (including both Senators) and two Democrats to five Democrats and four Republicans. The State Legislature, after basically forty years of Republican control has now swung to large Democrat majorities. The Democratic Governor Bill Ritter is popular. Democratic Congressman Mark Udall looks poised to take Republican Senator Wayne Allard's open Senate seat. The GOP has nominated former congressman Bob Schaffer. Schaffer represents the most conservative elements of a party that has lost touch with the Centennial State.

New Mexico is trending Democrat, but barely. The retirement of Republican Senator Pete Domenici has created a situation where the entire House delegation has thrown their hats into the ring. As things stand right now Democratic congressman Tom Udall looks like the most likely winner.

Minnesota is a toss-up. Moderate Republican Norm Coleman is still waiting to see if he will face Comedian Al Franken or Mike Ceresi.

Electoral vote projection 2008.

2008-02-17T16:17:00.021-07:00

Intrade Futures for McCain winning.

September 16, 2008 Update. D 273 R 265

September 9, 2008 Update. D 273 R 265

September 1, 2008 Update. D 293 R 245

August 6, 2008 Update. D 311 R 227

July 27, 2008 Update. D 311 R 227

July 18, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216

July 08, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216

June 24, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216

June 18, 2008 Update. D 306 R 204.

April 28, 2008 Update. D 234 R 240 Toss Up 64.

Dirty Dozen Most Competitive States.

April 13, 2008 Update. D 259 R 240 Toss up 39.

March 28, 2008 Update. D 284 R 216 Toss up 38 No change from last update.

March 8, 2008 Update. D 284 R 216 Toss up 38 Democrats lost 52 electoral votes from last update. Republicans gained 14 electoral votes from last update. 38 electoral votes were moved into the toss up category.

Here is our first projection for the presidential election of 2008.

If the election was held today the Democrat would win with 336 electoral votes to the Republican 202.

Getting ready for round three!

2008-01-29T18:15:00.000-07:00

This election cycle will be MHD's third venture into the election projection business. Last cycle we did a great job, picking basically every election correctly (I think we missed a state house race).

Anyway, over the next few weeks you will see predictions coming up for the US Senate and House, Colorado Senate and House, district by district and the US Presidency.

We are going to break Colorado into six districts for the purposes of posting updates, northern and southern plains, northern and southern mountains and northern and southern Denver metro area. Basically I-70 will divide the state north and south with I-25 dividing the state east and west. The metro area will be divided by either Colfax or Alameda, depending on the work load.

Our preliminary picks for Colorado based races are as follows:

US Senate: Likely Dem
HD 1: Safe Dem
HD 2: Safe Dem
HD 3: Likely Dem
HD 4: Likely GOP
HD 5: Safe GOP
HD 6: Safe GOP
HD 7: Likely Dem

State House: Safe Dem
State Senate: Safe Dem

Look for some great maps and predictions in the next few weeks.

Colorado Senate 2008

2006-12-05T08:58:00.000-07:00

There already has been a few stories highlighting the coming battle for one of Colorado's two US Senate seats in 2008. Here is how the match is shaping up.

On the Republican side: If Colorado's current senior Senator, Wayne Allard, decides to run again he will not face any significant primary opposition. He has a tiny warchest, less than $125,000. The main action on the Republican side is to ensure that Allard does run again. If Allard decides not to run the primary will be wide open. Early names that have been mentioned are: Governor Bill Owens, former US Representative Scott McInnis (who still has about a million in his campaign account), former US Representative Bob Schaffer and current US Representative Tom Tancredo.

We give an early edge to Allard not running again and to Scott McInnis taking up the Republican flag.

On the Democratic side there is really only one name floating around: US Representative Mark Udall. We don't foresee any real primary competition against him.

Our early overall analysis: Colorado has been trending Democratic over the last four years. A new term has even been coined for these western Democratic voters: Liberaltarians. While Colorado voters have a tendency to split their tickets, we don't think that they will think to themselves "We already have one Democratic Senator, so I'll vote for a Republican." Cast this race as Leans Democrat.

Colorado Election Results.

2006-11-09T01:59:00.000-07:00

Here is how Colorado's political landscape looks after the Democratic wave that swept the nation yesterday.

State wide the Democrats picked up two seats:

Bill Ritter won election as Colorado Governor.

Cary Kennedy won election as State Treasurer.

The Republicans kept two state wide seats:

John Suthers won election as AG.

Mike Coffman won election as Secretary of State.

We correctly predicted all of these races.

The Democrats picked up the 7th US House District (Northern Denver Suburbs).

The Democrats now control 4 out of 7 Congressional Districts in Colorado.

We correctly predicted all of those races.

The Democrats also increased their majorities in both houses of the State Legislature.

We correctly predicted every race for the State Senate.

We correctly predicted 59 out of 65 State House races.

Actually we are being hard on ourselves, we really only missed two races, but we thought that the GOP would split the toss-up races, they only won 2 out of 12.

One other thing. We called every US Senate race and we only missed the scope of the Democratic win, off by only about 5-7 seats. Not too bad.

On a state wide basis we easily achieved our hope for 95% accuracy.

Nationally, we kicked butt. A bad election for the Republicans. A good one for us.

Maybe next time we can get every single Colorado State House seat?

Stay tuned...in 2008 we have a Presidential Race and a US Senate race in Colorado. Nobody does anything like this, we're the one.

Top of the Ticket Results:

2006-11-08T00:14:00.000-07:00

Governor: Bill Ritter (D)
Sec. of State: Mike Coffman (R)
Treasurer: Too Close To Call Hillman (R) Leads by 5K votes.
Attorney General: John Suthers (R)

Congressional Seats:

CO-1 (Denver) DeGette (D)
CO-2 (Boulder) Udall (D)
CO-3 (Western Slope) Salazar (D)
CO-4 (Eastern Plains) Too Close To Call Musgrave (R) Leading by 7K votes.
CO-5 (Colorado Springs) Lamborn (R)
CO-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Tancredo (R)
CO-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Perlmutter (D)

Projected Makeup D-4 R-3

State House Results:

2006-11-07T23:21:00.000-07:00

33 needed for control: GOP 26 Dem 37 Too Close To Call 2

Incumbent = *

Tossups: 12
HD-17: Mark Cloer* (R) vs. Christine Varney (D) GOP Hold
HD-23: Ramey Johnson (R) vs. Gwen Green* (D) Dem Hold
HD-26: Andy Kerr* (D) vs. Glenn Rhoades (R) Dem Hold
HD-27: Bill Crane* (R) vs. Sara Gagliardi (D) Dem Pickup
HD-29: Debbie Benefield* (D) vs. Affie Ellis (R) Dem Hold
HD-33: Bill Berens* (R) vs. Dianne Primavera (D) Dem Pickup
HD-50: Dave Owen (R) vs. James Reisberg* (D) Dem Hold
HD-52: John Kefalas (D) vs. Bob McCluskey* (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-53: Randy Fischer (D) vs. Anne Yeldell (R) Dem Hold
HD-55: Bernie Buescher* (D) vs. Bob Caskey (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-56: Ken Chlouber (R) vs. Dan Gibbs (D) Dem Hold
HD-59: Joe Colgan (D) vs Ellen Roberts (R) GOP Hold

Leans/Likely Democrat: 8
HD-11: Jack Pommer* (D) vs. Catherine Jarrett (R) Dem Hold
HD-18: Michael Merrifield* (D) vs. Kyle Fisk (R) Dem Hold
HD-30: Darrin Dutcher (R) vs. Mary Hodge* (D) Dem Hold
HD-31: Rex Pierce (R) vs. Judy Solano* (D) Dem Hold
HD-36: Brian Boney (R) vs. Morgan Carroll* (D)Dem Hold
HD-41: Clyde Robinson (R) vs. Nancy Todd* (D)Dem Hold
HD-47: Liane "Buffie" McFadyen* (D) vs. Jeff Shaw (R)Dem Hold
HD-64: John Albright (R) vs. Wesley McKinley* (D) Dem Hold

Leans/Likely Republican: 15
HD-19: Kenneth Barela (D) vs. Marsha Looper (R) GOP Hold
HD-22: Jayson Haberkorn (D) vs. Kenneth Summers (R)GOP Hold
HD-25: Rob Witwer* (R) vs. Michael Daniels (D)GOP Hold
HD-28: James Kerr* (R) vs. Thomas Dittemore (D)GOP Hold
HD-37: Angela Engel (D) vs. Spencer Swalm (R) GOP Hold
HD-38: Matt Dunn (R) vs. Joe Rice (D)Dem Pickup
HD-39: David Balmer* (R) vs. Mollie Cullom (D) GOP Hold
HD-40: Debbie Stafford* (R) vs. Matt Bryant (D) GOP Hold
HD-48: Michael Dugan (D) vs. Gleen Vaad (R) GOP Hold
HD-49: Kevin Lundberg* (R) vs Susan Radford (D) GOP Hold
HD-51: Don Marostica (R) vs. Jodi Radke (D)GOP Hold
HD-54: Richard Alward (D) vs. Steven King (R)GOP Hold
HD-57: Andrew Gold (D) vs. Al White* (R) GOP Hold
HD-58: Brian Ahern (D) vs. Ray Rose* (R) GOP Hold
HD-60: Curtis Imrie (D) vs. Tom Massey* (R)GOP Hold

Safe Democrat: 20
HD-1: Jeanne Labuda (D) vs. Aimee Rathburn (R) Dem Hold
HD-2: Mike Cerbo* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-3: Anne McGihon* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-4: Jerry Frangas* (D) vs. Rick Nevin (R) Dem Hold
HD-5: Joel Judd* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-6: Andrew Romanoff* (D) vs. Jeffrey Hecht (R) Dem Hold
HD-7: Terrance Carroll* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-8: Rosemary Marshall* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-9: Alice Borodkin* (D) vs. Jerry Greenheck (R)Dem Hold
HD-10: Alice Madden* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-12: Paul Weissmann* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-13: Claire Levy (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-24: Cheri Jahn* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-32: Edward Casso (D) vs. Tracey Snyder (R)Dem Hold
HD-34: John Soper (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-35: Ruben Pacheco (R) vs. Cherylin Peniston (D)Dem Hold
HD-42: Michael Garcia (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-46: Dorothy Butcher (D) vs. Susan Pelto (R)Dem Hold
HD-61: Kathleen Curry (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-62: Rafael Gallegos* (D) vs. John Sandoval (R)Dem Hold

Safe Republican: 10
HD-14: Kent Lambert (R) vs. Karen Teja (D) GOP Hold
HD-15: Bill Cadman (R) vs. Allison Hunter (D) GOP Hold
HD-16: Larry Liston* (R) unopposed GOP Hold
HD-20: Amy Stephens (R) vs. Janet Hejtmaneck (D)GOP Hold
HD-21: Bob Gardner (R) vs. Anna Lord (D)GOP Hold
HD-43: Allen Dreher (D) vs. Frank McNulty (R)GOP Hold
HD-44: Lois Huff (D) vs. Mike May* (R) GOP Hold
HD-45: Linda Constantine (D) vs. Victor Mitchell (R)GOP Hold
HD-63: Pauline Artery (D) vs. Cory Gardner* (R) GOP Hold
HD-65: Jerry Sonnenberg (R) unopposed GOP Hold

The Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State House.

They also beat our projection, they picked up another Leans GOP seat (HD-38) with Iraq war vet. Joe Rice. It looks like they will keep their other Leans GOP seat (HD-55), Rep. Buescher leads by 2222 votes with 60% of the vote in. The other TCTC race (HD-53) is also a likely Dem. It just doesn't have enough votes counted yet.

Unlike in past years where the GOP has held its own in districts with narrow GOP majorities, the Democrats nearly ran the table. We predicted that they would win 6 of our 12 Toss Ups. But the Democratic wave was too high, the GOP only held 2 of those 12 seats, about 16%. That messes up our projection, the Democrats outperformed our model by 5 seats.

Congratulations Colorado Democrats. Now lets see what the "Colorado Promise" looks like.

State Senate Results:

2006-11-07T23:06:00.000-07:00

18 needed for control: D-19 R-15 Too Close To Call-1

Incumbent = *

Tossups:
SD-2:Michael Griego (D) vs. Kenneth Kester* (R) GOP Hold
SD-22:Mike Kopp (R) vs. Paula Noonan (D) GOP Hold

Leans/Likely Democrat:
SD-5:Lewis Entz* (R) vs. Gail Schwartz (D)Too Close To Call
As of 1:15 Schwartz up by 584 votes.
SD-11:Ed Jones* (R) vs. John Morse (D) Democrat Pickup
SD-21:Berry Boyd* (D) vs. Matt Knoedler (R) Democrat Hold
SD-6:Jim Isgar* (D) vs. Ronald Tate (R)Democrat Hold
SD-16:Joan Fitz-Gerald* (D) vs. Marty Neilson (R) Democrat Hold
SD-24:Luis Alvarez (R) vs. Lois Tochtrop* (D) Democrat Hold
SD-20:Maryanne "Moe" Keller* (D) vs. Dick Sargent (R) Democrat Hold

Leans/Likely Republican:
SD-13:Solomon Little Owl (D) vs. Scott Renfroe (R) Republican Hold
SD-07:Dana Barker (D) vs. Joshua Penry (R) Republican Hold
SD-15:Steve Johnson* (R) vs. Jennifer Miller (D) Republican Hold

Safe Democrat:
SD-3:Abel Tapia* (D) unopposed
SD-32:Dave Lewis (R) vs. Chris Romer (D) Democrat Hold
SD-34:Paula Sandoval (D) unopposed

Safe Republican:
SD-1:James Bowen (D) vs. Greg Brophy* (R) GOP Hold
SD-9:Keely Marrs (D) vs. David Schultheis (R) GOP Hold
SD-30:Ted Harvey (R) vs. Shelly Tokerud (D) GOP Hold

Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State Senate.

Results.

2006-11-07T20:01:00.000-07:00

Here are some results:

As of 8:23 The Rocky Mountain News has called Bill Ritter (D) the winner for Colorado's Governor.

It appears that Absentee Ballots have been counted first. From the looks of this the Colorado GOP may lose several more State House seats and at least three State Senate seats.

Early Numbers: as of 8:40.

SD-5 (Central Mountains) R-60 D-40 Republican Hold
SD-11 (Colorado Springs) R-40 D-60 Democrat Pickup
SD-21 (Lakewood) R-43.5 D-56.5 Democrat Hold
SD-22 (South-West Suburbs) R-52 D-48 This Doesn't look good for Kopp.

HD-23 (North Lakewood) R-45 D-55 Democrat Hold
HD-27 (Jefferson County) R-49 D-51 This Doesn't look good for Crane. Dem Pickup?
HD-29 (Westminister) R-47 D-53 Democrat Hold
HD-33 (Broomfield) R-44 D-56 Democrat Pickup
HD-38 (Arapahoe County) R-48 D-52 Democrat Pickup (in a GOP Seat)

State House

HD-55: We had this race listed as leans GOP.

Currently it is 56.5% for Democrat Bernie Buescher, 43.5% for Republican Bob Caskey. 30% Reporting as of 8:00.

State-Wide

Governor: We had this race listed as Likely Dem.

Curretly it is Bill Ritter (D) 57.5% and Bob Beauprez (R) with 39.5%.
Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:15.

State Treasurer: We had this race listed as leans Dem.

Currently it is 50.6% for Democrat Cary Kennedy, 49.4% for Republican Mark Hillman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:00.

Secretary of State: We had this race listed as Toss Up.

Currently it is 46.5% for Democrat Ken Gordon, 53.5% for Republican Mike Coffman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.

Attorney General: We had this race listed as Likely GOP.

Currently it is 42.9% for Democrat Fern O'Brien, 53.8% for Republican John Suthers. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.

Final Projections 2006

2006-11-07T13:24:00.000-07:00

Federal:

US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 20-24

Some other sites of note:

Senate Projections:
Pollster R 49-53 D 47-51
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R-49 Net D + 6

House Projections:

Tradesports.com House Dem Pickup Predicts D + 20-25

Tradesports.com GOP control about 15%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Colorado Congressional Delegation:

US Senate: No election. Senior Senator Wayne Allard (R) Junior Senator Ken Salazar (D)

US House: Races listed by competitiveness.

CO-7:

It looked like this race was tightening up in Mid October, but recent pulling shows Democrat Ed Perlmutter pulling away from Republican Rick O'Donnell. Our average of the last three polls (from Real Clear Politics) shows Perlmutter winning 50.6% to 43.6%. We looked at past polls (Polling Report via Colorado Media Matters) and found that the polling average in 2002 was R-40.6 D-39.6, and the final results were 47-47. In 2004 the polling average was R-44.3 D-41.3 and the final result was R-55 D-43. All we can say is that the pollsters don't do very well at guessing the final results (in 04 no one saw Beauprez polling any higher than 46% in the final three polls) but the average of the last three polls has predicted the winner the last two times.

As it looks right now, Perlmutter will be the next Representative from Colorado's 7th CD. Keep it as Leans Dem.

(Originally posted Oct 25th)

The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.

CO-4:

This race has tightened up in the last few days. Our polling average has Paccione (D) head of Musgrave 45.3% to 43.6%. This is not a good place for Musgrave. The Reform party candidate has gotten the endorsement of several newspapers in the district, so it is becoming increasingly likely that he may be a spoiler. We still think that Musgrave is the favorite, but not by much. We have moved this race to Leans GOP and it may become a toss-up or Leans Dem by November 7th. If the Democrats take more than 30 seats in this election, Musgrave is toast.

(Original Post Oct 25th)

Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionaires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.

CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.

No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.

Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.

Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)

Outlook: Likely Dem.

Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.

Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV, none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado, Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.

State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Outlook: Leans Dem.

Downlow:

(Update 11/7/06)

Recent polling shows Kennedy (D) with a high single digit lead over Hillman. She has TV spots up and has spent loads of money.

(Update 11/04/06)

The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.

Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Downlow:

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.

State Senate:

Outlook: R-15 D-20

Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. This year she has outraised him $150,000 to $63,000. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones SD-11 (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs. In 2002 he won with a registration advantage of 7% for the GOP. He spent $365,000, matching Mariano almost dollar for dollar. Also, Norma Anderson's old district may be up for grabs. Her hand chosen successor, Kiki Traylor lost a bitter primary to Mike Kopp. Paula Noonan looks to outspend Kopp 2-1 or 3-1 as of right now (70K to well over 200K). As we forecast it now. The GOP will be lucky to come out of this with 15 seats.

State House:

Outlook: R-31 D-34

Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.

2006 Election Projections: (11/04/06)

2006-11-04T03:35:00.000-07:00

Federal:

US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Some other sites of note:
Senate Projections:
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R 49 Net D + 6

House Projections:

Tradesports.com GOP control about 30%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Colorado Congressional Delegation:

US Senate: No election. Senior Senator Wayne Allard (R) Junior Senator Ken Salazar (D)

US House: Races listed by competitiveness.

CO-7:

It looked like this race was tightening up in Mid October, but recent pulling shows Democrat Ed Perlmutter pulling away from Republican Rick O'Donnell. Our average of the last three polls (from Real Clear Politics) shows Perlmutter winning 50.6% to 43.6%. We looked at past polls (Polling Report via Colorado Media Matters) and found that the polling average in 2002 was R-40.6 D-39.6, and the final results were 47-47. In 2004 the polling average was R-44.3 D-41.3 and the final result was R-55 D-43. All we can say is that the pollsters don't do very well at guessing the final results (in 04 no one saw Beauprez polling any higher than 46% in the final three polls) but the average of the last three polls has predicted the winner the last two times.

As it looks right now, Perlmutter will be the next Representative from Colorado's 7th CD. Keep it as Leans Dem.

(Originally posted Oct 25th)

The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.

CO-4:

This race has tightened up in the last few days. Our polling average has Paccione (D) head of Musgrave 45.3% to 43.6%. This is not a good place for Musgrave. The Reform party candidate has gotten the endorsement of several newspapers in the district, so it is becoming increasingly likely that he may be a spoiler. We still think that Musgrave is the favorite, but not by much. We have moved this race to Leans GOP and it may become a toss-up or Leans Dem by November 7th. If the Democrats take more than 30 seats in this election, Musgrave is toast.

(Original Post Oct 25th)

Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionaires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.

CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.

No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.

Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.

Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)

Outlook: Likely Dem.

Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.

Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.

State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.

Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Downlow:

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.

State Senate:

Outlook: R-15 D-20

Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones SD-11 (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs.

State House:

Outlook: R-31 D-34

Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.

This page will get reposted everyday with modifications until the election. Updates will be made daily.

2006 Election Projections:

2006-11-02T02:58:00.000-07:00

Final touches going into Colorado's Election Projection 2006.

2006-10-31T18:30:00.000-07:00

We are still wading through the data from the last few elections. Some districts are defying the current model so we are trying to patch those problems up.

We are going to do something that no one else is doing...calling every single election for the state legislature. Others may take the easy route, "Democratic control" or "GOP control," not us. We will predict every single seat.

But first we've gotta finish this pesky model.

New model coming soon, preliminary findings support Democratic gains.

2006-10-30T14:31:00.000-07:00

We are working on our second version of our econometric model for the Colorado State Legislature. After the data from 2000 was added we discovered that the model needed some major retooling.

Here are our basic findings as of right now.

Democrats are more "efficient" at getting votes than Republicans in Colorado. All things being equal, if you have a district that is divided evenly between Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters, the Democrat will win 3 out of 4 times. After tonight we will have different regression equations for the last three elections to show how the Democrats have become more efficient.

2004 was a "wave" election for the Democrats. There is still a lot of arguing going on over here, but something changed in Colorado in 2004. The Democrats picked up 7 State House seats (the equivalent of over 50 US House seats). Some of us think that Amendment 27 (campaign finance) is the key, others think that the GOP is more divided than it was before. Nevertheless, by this time tomorrow we should have a new model out, and new predictions for the State House and State Senate.

The Rocky Mountain News has a great story out today on the GOPs slide from power in the Legislature. Check it out here. The one flaw we saw in it, no talk of the power of Amendment 27.

State House Update 10/26/2006

2006-10-26T20:36:00.000-06:00

The Downlow: The magic number for control of the State House is 33. With 65 total seats you need 33 for control. Every seat is up for election every two years, no member can serve more than four two year terms, which makes it easy to break the members down into Freshmen, Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors. The State House is currently made up of 30 Republicans and 35 Democrats. Democrats took control for the first time in 30 years in 2004.

Below is a list of the seats that are up for election this year. They are arranged by likelihood of changing control. None of these races have links, as we add individual District pages to MHD we will update this page. Our current econometric model is woefully inadequate, we will have our 1.2 version out this weekend, until then forgive us for the huge number of toss-ups, we are working on it. Look for an update Monday.

33 needed for control: Delphi Forecasts GOP 28 Dem 37
Incumbent = *
Tossups: 12
HD-17: Mark Cloer* (R) vs. Christine Varney (D)
HD-23: Ramey Johnson (R) vs. Gwen Green* (D)
HD-26: Andy Kerr* (D) vs. Glenn Rhoades (R)
HD-27: Bill Crane* (R) vs. Sara Gagliardi (D)
HD-29: Debbie Benefield* (D) vs. Affie Ellis (R)
HD-33: Bill Berens* (R) vs. Dianne Primavera (D)
HD-50: Dave Owen (R) vs. James Reisberg* (D)
HD-52: John Kefalas (D) vs. Bob McCluskey* (R)
HD-53: Randy Fischer (D) vs. Anne Yeldell (R)
HD-55: Bernie Buescher* (D) vs. Bob Caskey (R)
HD-56: Ken Chlouber (R) vs. Dan Gibbs (D)
HD-59: Joe Colgan (D) vs Ellen Roberts (R)

Leans/Likely Democrat: 8
HD-11: Jack Pommer* (D) vs. Catherine Jarrett (R)
HD-18: Michael Merrifield* (D) vs. Kyle Fisk (R)
HD-30: Darrin Dutcher (R) vs. Mary Hodge* (D)
HD-31: Rex Pierce (R) vs. Judy Solano* (D)
HD-36: Brian Boney (R) vs. Morgan Carroll* (D)
HD-41: Clyde Robinson (R) vs. Nancy Todd* (D)
HD-47: Liane "Buffie" McFadyen* (D) vs. Jeff Shaw (R)
HD-64: John Albright (R) vs. Wesley McKinley* (D)

Leans/Likely Republican: 15
HD-19: Kenneth Barela (D) vs. Marsha Looper (R)
HD-22: Jayson Haberkorn (D) vs. Kenneth Summers (R)
HD-25: Rob Witwer* (R) vs. Michael Daniels (D)
HD-28: James Kerr* (R) vs. Thomas Dittemore (D)
HD-37: Angela Engel (D) vs. Spencer Swalm (R)
HD-38: Matt Dunn (R) vs. Joe Rice (D)
HD-39: David Balmer* (R) vs. Mollie Cullom (D)
HD-40: Debbie Stafford* (R) vs. Matt Bryant (D)
HD-48: Michael Dugan (D) vs. Gleen Vaad (R)
HD-49: Kevin Lundberg* (R) vs Susan Radford (D)
HD-51: Don Marostica (R) vs. Jodi Radke (D)
HD-54: Richard Alward (D) vs. Steven King (R)
HD-57: Andrew Gold (D) vs. Al White* (R)
HD-58: Brian Ahern (D) vs. Ray Rose* (R)
HD-60: Curtis Imrie (D) vs. Tom Massey* (R)

Safe Democrat: 20
HD-1: Jeanne Labuda (D) vs. Aimee Rathburn (R)
HD-2: Mike Cerbo* (D) unopposed
HD-3: Anne McGihon* (D) unopposed
HD-4: Jerry Frangas* (D) vs. Rick Nevin (R)
HD-5: Joel Judd* (D) unopposed
HD-6: Andrew Romanoff* (D) vs. Jeffrey Hecht (R)
HD-7: Terrance Carroll* (D) unopposed
HD-8: Rosemary Marshall* (D) unopposed
HD-9: Alice Borodkin* (D) vs. Jerry Greenheck (R)
HD-10: Alice Madden* (D) unopposed
HD-12: Paul Weissmann* (D) unopposed
HD-13: Claire Levy (D) unopposed
HD-24: Cheri Jahn* (D) unopposed
HD-32: Edward Casso (D) vs. Tracey Snyder (R)
HD-34: John Soper (D) unopposed
HD-35: Ruben Pacheco (R) vs. Cherylin Peniston (D)
HD-42: Michael Garcia (D) unopposed
HD-46: Dorothy Butcher (D) vs. Susan Pelto (R)
HD-61: Kathleen Curry (D) unopposed
HD-62: Rafael Gallegos* (D) vs. John Sandoval (R)

Safe Republican: 10
HD-14: Kent Lambert (R) vs. Karen Teja (D)
HD-15: Bill Cadman (R) vs. Allison Hunter (D)
HD-16: Larry Liston* (R) unopposed
HD-20: Amy Stephens (R) vs. Janet Hejtmaneck (D)
HD-21: Bob Gardner (R) vs. Anna Lord (D)
HD-43: Allen Dreher (D) vs. Frank McNulty (R)
HD-44: Lois Huff (D) vs. Mike May* (R)
HD-45: Linda Constantine (D) vs. Victor Mitchell (R)
HD-63: Pauline Artery (D) vs. Cory Gardner* (R)
HD-65: Jerry Sonnenberg (R) unopposed

Midweek Race Update.

2006-10-25T17:05:00.000-06:00

With only a fortnight to go before the election here is the skinny on Colorado's biggest political races.

Governor: Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We think that Beauprez (R) has at best a 5-10% chance of winning this race. The RCP poll average shows Ritter (D) with a 10.6% lead in the polls. We list this race as Likely Dem.

Other Statewide: NO Changes. A few polls are out, if we see Beauprez running over 15 points behind Ritter we may have to reconsider some of these races.

CO-7: The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.

CO-4: Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionqires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.

CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.

No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.

We will add links to all state-wide races over the next week.

Tomorrow we will add an update to our State House page modeled after our State Senate page.

We won't be doing any predictions on the state-wide Referenda.

State Senate Update 10/18/06

2006-10-18T00:38:00.000-06:00

The Downlow: The magic number for control of the State Senate is 18. With 35 total seats you need 18 for control. This year 18 seats are up for election, one is only for a two year term due to a resignation (read below). Seven Republican held seats are not up for election as are ten Democratic seats.

Below is a list of the seats that are up for election this year. They are arranged by likelihood of changing control. Some races have links, our default for each race is the Rocky Mountain News, as we add individual District pages to MHD we will update this page:

18 needed for control: Delphi Forecasts GOP 16 Dem 19
Incumbent = *
Tossups:
SD-5:Lewis Entz* (R) vs. Gail Schwartz (D)
SD-11:Ed Jones* (R) vs. John Morse (D)
SD-21:Berry Boyd* (D) vs. Matt Knoedler (R)

Leans/Likely Democrat:
SD-6:Jim Isgar* (D) vs. Ronald Tate (R)
SD-16:Joan Fitz-Gerald* (D) vs. Marty Neilson (R)
SD-24:Luis Alvarez (R) vs. Lois Tochtrop* (D)
SD-20:Maryanne "Moe" Keller* (D) vs. Dick Sargent (R)

Leans/Likely Republican:
SD-13:Solomon Little Owl (D) vs. Scott Renfroe (R)
SD-07:Dana Barker (D) vs. Joshua Penry (R)
SD-15:Steve Johnson* (R) vs. Jennifer Miller (D)
SD-22:Mike Kopp (R) vs. Paula Noonan (D)

Safe Democrat:
SD-3:Abel Tapia* (D) unopposed
SD-32:Dave Lewis (R) vs. Chris Romer (D)
SD-34:Paula Sandoval (D) unopposed

Safe Republican:
SD-1:James Bowen (D) vs. Greg Brophy* (R)
SD-2:Michael Griego (D) vs. Kenneth Kester* (R)
SD-9:Keely Marrs (D) vs. David Schultheis (R)
SD-30:Ted Harvey (R) vs. Shelly Tokerud (D)

Colorado State Senate Homepage

New National Forecast!

2006-10-17T15:44:00.000-06:00

It is our opinion that if the election was held today the Democratic Party would win both the House and the Senate.

Sabato's Crystal Ball does a good job of summing up the House and Senate races.

The probability numbers are from tradesports.com, so they need not match our projections.

As it stands now we forecast the Democrats picking up 20 House seats and six Senate seats.