Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Looking ahead at Colorado's 2010 elections.

There will be two big elections in Colorado in 2010, the Governor's Race and the battle for Senator Ken Salazar's Senate Seat.

Governor Bill Ritter was elected in 2006 with a decisive margin over Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez. 2006 was a Democratic year and we certainly don't feel that Ritter is a shoe-in but a heavy favorite. We are placing the early odds of Ritter winning reelection at 3-1.

Democratic Senator Ken Salazar won victory over Peter Coors in 2004. While President Bush and the Republican's in general did well in 2004, Colorado moved decisively to the left, with the Democrats picking up the State House, State Senate and this Senate Seat. Salazar ran as a moderate, during his earlier service as Attorney General he didn't build up a voting record, now he does. While Salazar hasn't made it to some early top ten Senate lists thus far, we feel that the Democrats would be foolish to take this race for granted. Early odds 3-2.

All three of the state-wide offices are also up for election. The Democrats are about to have a 2-1 margin.

Attorney General: Republican John Suthers currently holds this post. Even if he doesn't run for reelection we don't favor any Democrat. Early odds 3-2.

State Treasurer: Democrat Cary Kennedy won this post in the wave of 2004. The political prognosticoti say that she is popular, the average voter has no idea who she is. 1-1.

Secretary of State: Republican Mike Coffman is leaving the SOS job in order to move over to the US House (he will represent the 6th CD). We are currently waiting for his Democratic replacement. 1-1.

Here is a look at the Congressional Districts:

CD 1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD 2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD 3 (West Slope): Likely Democrat
CD 4 (Eastern Plains): Toss Up. Democrat Markey will be making her freshman defense of this GOP leaning district. This will be one of the hottest races in the nation.
CD 5 (Colorado Springs): Safe Republican.
CD 6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Safe Republican.
CD 7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Likely Democrat.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Final Projections 2008:

President: Obama 364 McCain 174 Obama is our projected winner.
Senate: Democrats 59 Republicans 41 Democrats pick up eight seats.
House: Democrats 255-265 Republicans 180-170. Democratic pickup of 20-30 seats.

Senate: Udall Democratic Pickup
House: CO-1 D, CO-2 D, CO-3 D, CO-4 Toss up, CO-5 R, CO-6 R, CO-7 D

State Senate: Democrats 19 Republicans 16. Republicans pickup SD 19 (Westminster and Arvada).
State House: 37 Democrats, 26 Republicans and 2 Toss ups.

Monday, November 03, 2008

Final Colorado State Senate Projection 2008.

Districts without elections: 16 divided R-8 D-8

Districts with elections: 19 current makeup R-7 D-12

Projected make up: R-16 D-19

District Breakdown:

Republican Held:

SD-4: Safe Republican District. Mark Sheffel (R) is our projected winner.

SD-8: Competitive District. Al White (R) vs. Ken Brenner (D). White had 10K on hand from the last report. Brenner had 12K cash on hand. White out spent and out raised Brenner so we are leaning towards White. Republican Hold.

SD-10: Safe Republican District. Bill Cadman (R) is our projected winner.

SD-12: Safe Republican District. Keith King (R) is our projected winner.

SD-23: Competitive District. Shawn Mitchell (R) vs. Joe Whitcomb (D). Mitchell had 49K cash on hand from the last report. Whitcomb had 4K cash on hand. Mitchell outspent Whitcomb so we are leaning towards Mitchell. Republican hold.

SD-26: Competitive District. Lauri Clapp (R) vs. Linda Newell (D). Clapp had 25K cash on hand. Newell looks to have been outspent. Republican hold.

SD-27: Safe Republican. Nancy Spence (R) is our projected winner.

We project that the Republican's will lose 0 state senate seats. Any surprise will have to occur in either district 8, 23 or 26. It is a big if however, no State Senate candidate has won without outspending their competitor in competitive districts. In non-competitive districts no amount of spending can overcome the statistical power of partisan make up.

Democrat Held Districts:

SD-14: Competitive District. We project Bob Bacon (D) will easily hold his seat.

SD-16: Highly Competitive District. Dan Gibbs (D) vs. Don Ytterburg (R). Gibbs had 10K cash on hand from the last report. Ytterberg had about 10K on hand also. However, it looks like he was simply outspent. Look for this district to remain in Democratic hands.

SD-17: Safe Democrat. We project Shaffer will easily hold his seat.

SD-18: Safe Democrat. We project Rollie Heath will win. Unopposed.

SD-19: Highly Competitive District. Open Seat. Evie Hadak (D) vs. Libby Szabo (R). Cash on hand: Hadak 20K Szabo 35K cash on hand. Szabo appears to have outspent Hadak, which will earn her this seat. Republican pickup.

SD-21: Safe Democrat. We project Betty Boyd (D) will win re-election.

SD-25: Safe Democrat. Mary Hodge (D), easy win.

SD-28, 29, 31, 33 and 35, all safe Democratic seats.

Overall we see the Democrats defending 11 of their 12 seats, losing only SD-19. It will take some major coat-tails for our prediction to be off.

Colorado State House Final Projection 2008.

House Districts 1-9 City and County of Denver. All Safe Democrat.

House Districts 10-13 Boulder, Gilpin and Clear Creek Counties. All Safe Democrat.

House Districts 14-21 El Paso and Fremont Counties. 6 Safe Republican 1 Republican Favored 1 Democrat Favored.

House Districts 22-29 Jefferson County. 1 Safe Republican, 2 Republican Favored, 1 Toss Up, 2 Leans Democrat, 2 Democrat Favored.

House Districts 30-35 Broomfield and Adams Counties. 5 Democrat, 1 Toss Up.

House Districts 36-42 Arapahoe and Elbert Counties. 3 Safe Republican (Including 1 pick up), 2 Safe Democrat, 1 Democrat Favored, 1 Leans Democrat.

House Districts 43-45 Douglas and Teller Counties. All Safe Republican.

House Districts 46 and 47 Pueblo. Safe Democrat.

House Districts 48-52 North Central Colorado. 48, 49, 51 Safe Republican, 52 Leans Democrat, 50, 53 Safe Democrat.

House Districts 54-62 Mountains and West Slope. 54, 57 and 60 Safe Republican. 58 and 59 Lean Republican. 55 Leans Democrat. 56, 61 and 62 Safe Democrat.

House Districts 63-65 East Plains. 63 and 65 Safe Republican. 64 Safe Democrat.

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Final US Senate Projection.

Here is our final US Senate Projection for the 2008 cycle. We are projecting a Democratic gain of 8 seats.

Here are the states that the Democrats should pick up, listed from most likely to least likely.

Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Minnesota.

Final Projection: 2008 US Senate 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans (including both independents as Democrats).

South Projection.

Overall ten states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Republican +2.

North Carolina: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NC-8 Toss Up.
South Carolina: No Change.
Georgia: GA-8 Toss Up.
Florida: House FL-8 GOP Hold, FL-16 GOP Pick Up, FL-21 GOP Hold, FL-24 Toss Up, FL-25 GOP Hold.
Alabama: House AL-2 GOP Hold, AL-5 Toss Up.
Tennessee: No Change.
Mississippi: House MS-1 Toss Up.
Arkansas: No Change.
Louisiana: House LA-6 Toss Up.
Texas: House TX-22 GOP Pick Up.

Mid Atlantic and Border States.

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Democrat +1.

New Jersey: House NJ-3 Toss Up, NJ-7 Toss Up.
Delaware: No Change.
Maryland: No Change.
Virginia: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House VA-11 Democrat Pick Up.
West Virginia: No Change.
Kentucky: No Change.

New England Projection.

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change 0.

Maine: No Change.
Vermont: No Change.
New Hampshire: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NH-1 Toss Up.
Massachusetts: No Change.
Rhode Island: No Change.
Connecticut: House CT-4 Toss Up.