Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Referendum C in the News; Updated Legislative Odds.

The Rocky mountain News is running a series of articles that examine how Referendum C would effect a handful of local individuals.

The opening article of the series is here.

The first of the seven parts is available here. This first part featured a struggling west slope family who said that they were going to vote against C because they couldn't afford to forfeit their tax rebates over the next five years.

The second article features a 23 year old single professional who lives in Aurora and works in Downtown Denver. She says that she supports C because "[I]n the end... Her TABOR refund would be better spent on improving roads and higher education." You can link to that article here.

The third part of that series features a look at the unusual Mayor of Sterling and his wife. They support C because they want to increase funding for Sterling's High School and because "[L]osing TABOR refunds with Refs C and D wouldn't devastate them." You can link to that story here.

Overall the score is No on C:1 Yes on C:2. I imagine that the Rocky will try to get a balanced look. We will probably see the storyline end with three families supporting C, three against it and one who still hasn't made its mind up.

Meanwhile in the Campaign over C...

A proxy war has sprung up between Republican Gubernatorial Candidates Mark Holtzman and Bob Beauprez. Each accuses the other of not being enough against C and of abusing campaign finance laws. The latest in a series of articles on the subject is available here. This is simply positioning for the primary next fall, as each candidate vies for support from the Republican Party's anti-tax base.

Also...

It seems that the new trend in the media's reporting on the battle over Referendum C is to point out how this side or that has lied. Most recently the No on C side has taken a few big hits. Earlier in the week Jon Caldara, the President of the Independence Institute admitted that the State didn't pay $5,000 for a piece of artwork that featured some dildos hanging on hooks. That charge had been a rallying cry for the anti-C forces. In this article it comes to light that the State didn't give Colorado company Red Robin nearly $100,000 in cash. Instead the State approved Red Robin for a grant that it will receive in the future.

Updating our legislative numbers...

It appears that the GOP is going to have a much harder time winning back the State Legislature next year than we originally thought. While these predictions are only preliminary ones, here is what we think the probability of control for next year is right now:

probability in % terms....................Fractional
GOP Control.............5%......................................19/1
Dem Control.............45%.....................................6/5
Split Control.............50%.....................................1/1

Monday, September 26, 2005

Delphi on the Battle over Ref. C. End of Sept. Edition.

Eric Sondermann, a local political analyst, wrote a great piece in Sunday's Denver Post. The thesis of his piece was that both sides were using overheated rhetoric in the debate over C. Ref. C won't kill TABOR, it will basically maintain the status quo. On the other side Ref. C won't even begin to fill the wish list for the "fiscal crisis" crowd. If it passes they will have a new fiscal crisis that needs to be solved in the fall of 2006.

An exerpt is available here:

These ballot proposals could be approved and yet neither the professed wishes of the proponents nor the desperate fears of the opponents are likely to be realized. Contrary to the proponents' implicit promise, the state's list of unmet needs would remain a lengthy one. Within months, there would be fresh talk of a "fiscal crisis" and impassioned calls for new revenue sources. Contrary to the opponents' claims about the magnitude of the "tax increase," these are essentially status quo measures that would maintain tax and spending at pre-recession levels.


A link to the piece is available here.

As far as the advertisements for and against C go, both sides appear to be lying.

The No on C side has been running ads saying that the average voter will forfeit $3,200 in tax refunds. That number seems to be in doubt:

Based on current estimates, the state would keep and spend an extra $3.7 billion over five years if Referendum C passes. The amount of money that most taxpayers would give up if Referendum C passes is $491, according to the nonpartisan Legislative Council.

Opponents of Referendum C, however, calculate that the average family of four would give up $3,200 in tax refunds.

To get that number, they divide $3.1 billion - another projection of the amount of money the state would keep if C passes - by the number of families.

But that approach assumes each taxpayer qualifies for every possible refund. The legislature has devised 12 special-interest tax breaks for things such as child care and business and capital-gains exemptions. No taxpayer qualifies for every refund.


In truth, the real number is probably somewhere in between. However, the Pro-C adds that accuse the anti-C side of lying about the $3,200 isn't really truthful itself.

In another commercial, the Pro-C side outright lies. Here is what the Denver Post had to say:

The message: Three years of recession have caused deep cuts to education that have hit kids hard. Substandard buildings, crowded classrooms and cuts to programs including preschool, kindergarten and Read to Achieve are the result.

Fact: Read to Achieve, which provides grants to help 2nd- and 3rd-graders who read below their grade level, was cut $11.9 million between fiscal year 2004-05 and 2005-06. Between 2003-04 and 2004-05, 2,000 kids were cut from the state's preschool program. But for 2005-06, money was restored to fund the 2,000 kids and add 1,310 more. In 2001-02, the state cut funding for unsatisfactory schools to send their half-day kindergartners to full-day programs. That funding was restored for 2005-06...Overall, K-12 funding increased between 2001 and 2004 because of Amendment 23, which requires the state to increase funding by student growth and inflation plus 1 percent every year.

Between 2001-02 and 2003-04, the total general fund money to the Education Department increased $149 million, from $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion.


When the Pro-C side says that "Three years of recession have caused deep cuts to education that have hit kids hard. Substandard buildings, crowded classrooms and cuts to programs" they aren't telling the truth.

You can link to the story here.

Tomorrow I'll have more links up. Stay tuned.

Friday, September 23, 2005

Delphi on the Battle over Ref. C.

The Conventional Wisdom is that the debate over Referendum C is creating a rift in the Colorado State Republican Party. An excellent Durango Herald article outlined the basic facts of the rift.

A November ballot proposal to fix Colorado's financial woes has sparked a nasty and expensive campaign that has split the state's Republican base, already reeling from losses in last fall's elections.

Gov. Bill Owens, once touted as presidential material in conservative Republican circles, teamed with Democrats last spring in drawing up the proposal that will ask voters to give up as much as $3.7 billion in tax refunds over the next five years.

TABOR [The part of the state constitution that limits tax increases and government spending and which would be modified by Ref. C] supporters recently brought in former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, who accused Owens in a face-to-face debate of "drinking backslider wine" for supporting the ballot measure. The measure's author, Douglas Bruce, has threatened to sue if voters approve the ballot plan.

Owens acknowledged the plan does not have much support among Republicans, but he said Colorado is facing a crisis next year if voters refuse to give up surplus tax refunds. He said he is simply backing TABOR's provision that requires voter approval involving tax dollars.


And it is true, the State party is split, but the split is more symbolic than real. A handful of elected GOP officials have come out in support of C, however, straw polls, polling and local party officials have revealed that the Republican party is anything but split, rank and file members don't support C. For instance the Larimer County Republican Executive Committee voted against supporting C, angering some former GOP office holders. An earlier GOP straw poll saw support for C at about 25%. The question that I have to ask is why are these Republicans taking a position that seems suicidal inside their party?

The answer appears to be the recent Democratic surge in Colorado. In 2004 the Democrats picked up both houses of the State Legislature, a Senate Seat and a Congress Seat. Many GOP leaders believe that the reason for that surge was voter disgust at the "wither on the vine" attitude many Republicans have towards State spending. I believe that many of these GOP leaders have made a strategic choice. Support C and take away a Democratic issue. Governor Owens is a perfect example of this approach. If C loses he blunts the criticism of Democrats, but if C wins he can take much of the credit as the highest profile Republican in support of C. Perhaps allowing this one time presidential hopeful to restart his career.

The Democrats see C as a win-win. If C wins they can finally do some damage to the hated TABOR amendment. Democratic constituents have been disproportionately affected by TABOR's limits on spending growth. Quite literally TABOR takes money out of their pockets. They also can blunt some of the effects of Amendment 23, which put the K-12 education budget on autopilot, by undoing parts of TABOR, not modifying 23. If C loses then the Democrats can come back in 2006, and with all the state-wide races, including an open governors seat, they can play the same cards that they won with in 2004, namely that the GOP is ideologically rigid and can't respond to the real world needs of everyday Coloradoans. However this isn't my idea, it comes from the American Prospect:

It [the Democratic Da Vinci Code] also echoed Colorado Democrats, who used deficits to win the state Legislature for the first time in 40 years. "The Republicans' obsession with narrow cultural issues while the state's looming fiscal crisis was ignored drove a deep wedge between fiscally conservative live-and-let-live Republicans and the neo-conservative extremists with an agenda," wrote one Denver Post columnist.


More often than not the conventional wisdom is wrong. The state GOP is not deeply split over C. When new polls become available look for anywhere from one quarter to one third of the GOP voters to support C, but no where near the huge divide that you hear in the media. Where their is a divide is between the base of the party and the elected officials who believe that the Democrats rode the budget deficit to victory.

The Democrats are going to believe that they have won no matter what. If C passes any reform to amendment 23 will be off the table. If it loses they can play the same cards that won in 2004. And, unless the GOP learns to play the same game as the Democrats they will win.

The Colorado GOP may not be as divided as the media makes it out to be, but it is infected with a cancer. It held power for too long, as Vince Lombardy used to say, sometimes you need to get beat down in order to win. The Colorado Democrats have found out how to win. They blocked any ballot issues to deal with the budget problems while in the minority in 2003 and then accused the GOP of doing nothing, and they won. For the GOP to win in the future they may have to do something that Republicans in the late 1990s never could have imagined, learn from the Democrats.

Thursday, September 22, 2005

Referendum C and D homepage.

Polls:

Mason-Dixon Oct 11-13
Referendum C Yes: 47% No: 44% Undecided: 9% MOE:4%
Referendum D Yes: 44% No: 45% Undecided: 11% MOE:4%

POS Oct 10-12
Referendum C: Yes:49% No:46% Undecided:5% MOE:4.38%
Referendum D: Yes:50% No:44% Undecided:6% MOE:4.38%

Dan Willis* 08/05
Referenda C: For 48%. Against 44%. Undec. 8%. MoE 4%.
Mason Dixon 07/05
Referenda C: For 43%. Against 42%.
Referenda D: For 39%. Against 45%.


Update 10/17/2005 Rosen Reveals Part of GOP Strategy.

Update 10/17/2005 Closer Look at Friday's RMN Poll Results.

Update 10/16/2005 New Denver Post Poll Out.

Update 10/14/2005 New Polling Out, C and D within MOE.

Update 10/12/2005 Caldara and Allies Outspending Vote Yes on C and D.

Update 10/10/2005 Mile High Delphi Reveals New Model. Initial Prediction, C and D lose 47-53.

Update 10/05/2005 C and D Need More Money to Win.

Update 10/04/2005 A look at what we look at as we build the Referendum C and D model.

Update 10/04/2005 Ciruli Says C and D Statistically Tied.

Update 9/26/2005 Delphi on the Battle Over Ref. C and D.

Update 9/23/2005 A look at the coming battle.

Update 9/22/2005

The battle over C and D is shifting into high gear. Republican Gubernatorial candidate Mark Holtzman has hitched his horse to the No on C campaign. If C goes down his stock will go up. He is now being featured on Anti-C commercials that are financed by, among others, his father.

A new front has opened in the battle, earlier in the month Jon Caldara and the No on C campaign sued over the title of the issue. Rocky Mountain News political columnist Peter Blake, a fairminded journalist, sided with Caldara...

Earlier this week Jon Caldara and other foes of Referendum C sued the secretary of state and the legislature because, they said, the ballot title erroneously says it will enable the state to spend extra billions on roads, schools and health care over five years "without raising taxes." In fact, the plaintiffs argue, "if Referendum C passed, the measure would raise net taxes."

Under the rules laid down by the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights, says Caldara, the ballot title should ask: "Shall state taxes be increased $3.7 billion over five years" by raising the TABOR baseline. He asked the Jefferson County District Court to force this change in the ballot title. (For what it's worth, Caldara didn't protest Referendum D, since its operative phrase on the ballot title is "Without increasing any tax rates or imposing any new taxes . . ." In other words it notifies voters of the distinction between hiking taxes and hiking tax rates.)

The point here isn't to debate whether or not spending tax money that would otherwise be refunded to the citizenry is in fact a tax hike. The point is that the courts will refuse to address a possibly faulty ballot title before the election.


In other news, Dan Willis reported on Coloradopols that Referendum C had pulled up to 48-44. We have no reason to doubt these numbers, it still is a statistical tie.

* Not really sure how to characterize this poll. Here is what Dan said about it:
The poll numbers I quoted were given in a public forum I attended a couple of weeks ago. They were supposedly from one of the well-known pollsters (Talemy-Drake is in my mind, but I honestly don't remember for sure).





8/30/05 Update.

Original Post 8/21/2005

The big contest this fall is Referendum C (D only matters if C passes).

This page is designed to answer any questions someone may have about C and D and it will provide you with quick links to the supporters and opponents of C and D.

Mile High Delphi has no opinion on C and D.

Lets answer some basic questions. What will C and D do? Who is supporting C and D? Why? Who opposes C and D? Why?

What Will C and D Do?

"What is Referendum C?

C Suspends state spending limits for five years.

C Allows lawmakers to spend about $3.6 billion they otherwise would have to refund to taxpayers.

What is Referendum D?

D Allows the state to borrow against that money to begin transportation and school construction right away."

Source Rocky Mountain News.

Who is supporting C and D and why?

Vote Yes on C and D. The two Referenda are currently (updated on 8/21/05) endorsed by 522 organizations. The Vote Yes on C & D campaign committee had nearly 1.3 million dollars on hand as of July 26th.

Some of the major donors to the Yes on C & D campaign are the AFSCME Council 76 which gave $100,000 on 07/22/05, the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce which gave $250,000 on 07/21/05, Centura Health gave $195,000 on 07/15/2005 and the Colorado Education Association gave $200,000 on 07/26/05.

Sometimes you feel like you just get a bunch of spin as to why to vote yes or no on something. Here at Mile High Delphi we've decided to just give you a link to the supporter's website (that way you don't have to read our spin). Here is why Vote Yes on C & D thinks you should vote yes.

Who opposes C and D and why?

Vote No; It's Your Dough. The two Referenda are currently (updated on 8/21/05) opposed by Americans for Prosperity, Americans for Tax Reform, The Club for Growth, Colorado Union of Taxpayers, Freedom Works, National Taxpayers Union, Save Tabor.com and the Colorado Republican Business Coalition. The Vote No; It's Your Dough campaign committee had $107,279.49 on hand as of July 26th.

Vote No; It's Your Dough had only three donors over the reporting period. Helen Sweeney gave $25.00. Edward McVaney gave $100,000. Brent Bickel gave $5,000. All on 07/19/05. This only tells part of the story. Two of the major opponents of C and D, Jon Caldara and John Andrews, both have radio shows which they use to attack the referenda items. Also, the Independence Institute is running radio commercials that basically attack C and D as tax increases (but which don't advocate a no vote so therefore count as "educational" and protect the Institute from losing its tax exempt status).

The best "No on C and D" website I've been able to find so far is this one, TaxIncrease.org.

Polling:

There is only one poll out on C and D so far:

Mason Dixon 07/05
Referenda C: For 43%. Against 42%.
Referenda D: For 39%. Against 45%.

Top of the Ticket!

Poll average Ritter (D) 51.7% Beauprez (R) 35% Spread Ritter +16.7

Update (10/05/2006)

If you want a page that has everything you could want on this race go here. Real Clear Politics has done as good a job as anyone out there looking at this race.

As for this race. The Beauprez campaign cannot seem to get any traction against Ritter. Beauprez cannot even get the GOP voters lined up behind him, nevermind the unaffiliated voters. Don't mind those biased attacks against the Beauprez campaign that come out from the likes of coloradopols which is a liberal attack blog that masquerades as "Politics, News and Inside Information." (Not that we don't like liberal websites, squarestate.net is a daily read, and they state that they are progressives up front.)

The main problem Beauprez has is that this year the public is generally against the Republicans. National scandals and the 6 year political itch give Beauprez a strong headwind that he seems to be making no progress against. Unless his poll numbers can pull to within five points he will lose to Ritter, if it is a blowout the GOP could lose more seats in the State Legislature (which the Democrats already control) and the Democrats could pick up the 7th Congressional District.

Update (8/15/2006)

I've just received a bunch of data from Matrow that has caused us to move this race from Barely GOP to Lean Dem.

The reasons for this are many and varied and others say it better than we can, but this graph of the price for a futures option from Tradesports.com shows it all.




The market has basically shown that the probability of the Bob Beauprez winning the Governor's race has dropped from about 70% in February to about 20% today. Now this market isn't very liquid, but it does have strong predictive powers.

Below you can see how the price on a Ritter to win option has gone up over the same time.




Larry Sabato has decided to put this race into the Leans Democratic category.

A link to Sabato's Crystal Ball and its page devoted to the Colorado Gubernatorial race is available here.

The Cook Political Report has this race listed as a Toss Up. A link to their gubernatorial Race Ratings page is available here.

Here are some recent polls:

Rasmussen Ritter (D) 48% Beauprez (R) 39% Undec. 12% August 14

Mason-Dixon Ritter (D) 42% Beauprez (R) 35% Undec. 23% July 17

Rasmussen Ritter (D) 42% Beauprez (R) 37% Undec. 16% July 10

The guys over at Coloradopols have a page with more polls on it. Click here.

Polling:
8/19-24/2005 Ritter (D) 44% Beauprez 42% Undec. 14%

Update (4/27/06)

We are going to move this race into the Barely GOP category.

The race breaks down like this. It is going to be a Bill Ritter (D) vs. Bob Beauprez (R) matchup.

Here is a graph of how much a option for the GOP winning the Colorado Governor's race is going for on Tradesports.com:




As you can see the market over at Tradesports has moved the probability of the GOP winning Colorado's open Governor's seat from 70% down to 51% today.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has the race listed as a Toss Up, we think he is hedging, but check his site out.

Update (9/22/05)

Here is a link to a post over at Polstate. It appears that a early poll is out that shows Ritter leading Beauprez. All polling information will be placed at the top of this page.

Original post (8/30/05)

As of right now (over a year out from the election) there seems to only be three big players in the Governor's race.

On the Republican side there is Bob Beauprez and Mark Holtzman.

Bob Beauprez's website is available here. So far he appears like the slight favorite in the race. He has won a straw poll and has better name recognition than Holtzman.

Mark Holtzman's website is available here. While Beauprez seems like a slight favorite right now, Holtzman could easily win. We're waiting for some polls to point the way. Holtzman has the money lead right now, but we are a year out.

Edge...Slight Edge to Beauprez.

On the Democratic side there is only one man standing, former Denver D.A. Bill Ritter.

Ritter is a pro-life Democrat. It has been opined that he should be a strong candidate. If he doesn't have a primary we will get to see. Senator Salazar and Denver Mayor Hickenlooper both have declined to run.

Edge...Ritter.

Our predictions for the general election. Colorado had trended Republican during the late 90s and into the early part of this century, however a Democratic tidal-wave hit Colorado in 2004. Our preliminary prediction is that the Republican candidate has a slight advantage.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Referendum C Odds Update 09/21/2005

The market book will be moving over to the Political State Report. Check there daily for price quotes and end of week graphs.

We will still have a condensed book on the sidebar.

Referendum C to win continues to surge up in bidding. Over the past two days it has moved up from 48 to 55. Word over at ColoradoPols is that Ref. C has moved to within striking distance. Hat Tip to Dan Willis for keeping his ear to the grapevine. No action on the No on C contract.


The market has begun. Remember it is free to play. Click on the "sign up" link to the right and join in. There is lots of room for new participants. Sign up. Read the FAQs. Win $200.

Here is where the market stands now:
Name of Contract.0-100...Moneyline...Fractional.
Ref. C to lose.....52......-108...........10/11.
Ref. C to win......55......-122.............5/6.

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Referendum C Futures Market Book 9/20/05

Today's trading starts at 6:00 PM for the Referendum C Futures Market. Remember no trading over the weekend. Below you will see a table that shows the best trading information. The opening prices were established by auction. B Qty = How many contracts are offered for sale at the best price. Bid = the price those contracts are being offered for. Offer = The best price that is being offered for a contract. A Qty = the number of contracts that are wanted at that best price.
































Best to SellBest to Buy
Contract NameB QtyBIDOfferA QtyLastVolChange
Ref. C to Win10053501005075+2
Ref. C to Lose505253255200

Below is the C to win book. Green indicates buyers. Red indicates sellers.
























Referendum C to Win Book
QtyPricePriceQty
254753100
1004055200
20040





















Referendum C to Lose Book
QtyPricePriceQty
50525325

Referendum C Odds Update 09/20/2005

Referendum C to win has moved up to even money...


The market has begun. Remember it is free to play. Click on the "sign up" link to the right and join in. There is lots of room for new participants. Sign up. Read the FAQs. Win $200.

Here is where the market stands now:
Name of Contract.0-100...Moneyline...Fractional.
Ref. C to lose.....52......-108...........10/11.
Ref. C to win......50.......100...............1/1.

Monday, September 19, 2005

Ref. C Futures Market 09/19/2005

All prices are unchanged over the weekend.

Friday, September 16, 2005

Week in review.

This week the market acted much as we thought it would. The opening prices didn't change at all. We signed up a dozen new traders. It appears that everyone is waiting for some new information before they begin to move.

Referendum C Futures Market Book 9/16/05 (week in review tonight at 7:00)

Today's trading starts at 6:00 PM for the Referendum C Futures Market. Remember no trading over the weekend. Below you will see a table that shows the best trading information. The opening prices were established by auction. B Qty = How many contracts are offered for sale at the best price. Bid = the price those contracts are being offered for. Offer = The best price that is being offered for a contract. A Qty = the number of contracts that are wanted at that best price.
































Best to SellBest to Buy
Contract NameB QtyBIDOfferA QtyLastVolChange
Ref. C to Win254847254800
Ref. C to Lose505253255200

Below is the C to win book. Green indicates buyers. Red indicates sellers.
























Referendum C to Win Book
QtyPricePriceQty
25474825
100405050
20040





















Referendum C to Lose Book
QtyPricePriceQty
50525325

Thursday, September 15, 2005

Referendum C Futures Market Book 9/15/05

Today's trading starts at 6:00 PM for the Referendum C Futures Market. Below you will see a table that shows the best trading information. The opening prices were established by auction. B Qty = How many contracts are offered for sale at the best price. Bid = the price those contracts are being offered for. Offer = The best price that is being offered for a contract. A Qty = the number of contracts that are wanted at that best price.
































Best to SellBest to Buy
Contract NameB QtyBIDOfferA QtyLastVolChange
Ref. C to Win254847254800
Ref. C to Lose505253255200

Below is the C to win book. Green indicates buyers. Red indicates sellers.
























Referendum C to Win Book
QtyPricePriceQty
25474825
100405050
20040





















Referendum C to Lose Book
QtyPricePriceQty
50525325

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Referendum C Odds Update.

The market has begun. Remember it is free to play. Click on the "sign up" link to the right and join in.

Here is where the market stands now:

Name of Contract.0-100...Moneyline...Fractional.
Ref. C to lose.....52......-108...........10/11.
Ref. C to win......48.......108...........11/10.

Referendum C Futures Market Book 9/14/05

Today's trading starts at 6:00 PM for the Referendum C Futures Market. Below you will see a table that shows the best trading information. The opening prices were established by auction. B Qty = How many contracts are offered for sale at the best price. Bid = the price those contracts are being offered for. Offer = The best price that is being offered for a contract. A Qty = the number of contracts that are wanted at that best price.
































Best to SellBest to Buy
Contract NameB QtyBIDOfferA QtyLastVolChange
Ref. C to Win254847254800
Ref. C to Lose505253255200

Below is the C to win book. Green indicates buyers. Red indicates sellers.
























Referendum C to Win Book
QtyPricePriceQty
25474825
100405050
20040





















Referendum C to Lose Book
QtyPricePriceQty
50525325

Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Referendum C Futures Market Book 9/13/05

Today's trading starts at 6:00 PM for the Referendum C Futures Market. Below you will see a table that shows the best trading information. The opening prices were established by auction. B Qty = How many contracts are offered for sale at the best price. Bid = the price those contracts are being offered for. Offer = The best price that is being offered for a contract. A Qty = the number of contracts that are wanted at that best price.


































Best to Sell Best to Buy
Contract NameB QtyBIDOfferA QtyLastVolChange
Ref. C to Pass254847254800
Ref. C to Lose505253255200

Monday, September 12, 2005

Referendum C Futures Market 9/12/05

Trading starts today at 6:00 PM for the Referendum C Futures Market. Below you will see a table that shows the best trading information. The opening prices were established by auction. B Qty = How many contracts are offered for sale at the best price. Bid = the price those contracts are being offered for. Offer = The best price that is being offered for a contract. A Qty = the number of contracts that are wanted at that best price.

































Best to Sell Best to Buy
Contract NameB QtyBIDOfferA QtyLastVolChange
Ref. C to Pass254847254800
Ref. C to Lose255253255200

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

How to sign up.

During the auction:

During the auction (09/06/05-09/11/05):

The first thing you need to do is open an account. Send an e-mail to milehighdelphi@yahoo.com

Include your e-mail address and a username. We will give you a codeword. It will arrive in your e-mail within 24 hours. This allows you to access your account. Everyone's account starts at $100.

When you contact us you will need to state how many shares you want, of which contract and what you are willing to pay per contract.

Example e-mail:

blogicus@yahoo.com username: blogicus 100 shares for C to Win at 50 cents. codename alpha.

During the market period (09/12/05 - 11/01/05):

The first thing you need to do is open an account. Send an e-mail to milehighdelphi@yahoo.com

Include your e-mail address and a username. We will give you a codeword. It will arrive in your e-mail within 24 hours. This allows you to access your account. Everyone's account starts at $100.

Once you have an open account you can trade in two different ways. Live trading will occur between 6:00 and 7:00 PM. You can send us buy and sell orders anytime during the day, we will fill them on a first in - first out basis. During our live hours you can also call us at 720-252-7728.

When you contact us you will need to state how many shares you want to buy or sell, which type of contract, and either what you are willing to pay or what you are willing sell you contracts for.

Example e-mail:

blogicus@yahoo.com username: blogicus BUY 100 shares for C to Win at 50 cents. codename: alpha

Results and open orders will be available on Polstate.com after the close of business each day.

Rules and info for Futures Market will be posted at 5:00.

We are hammering out the details and rules for the futures market.

They will be posted later today.

We also will have details as to how the auction will work for establishing the opening prices for the contracts.

General Info and FAQ's

What is this?

The 2005 Referendum C Futures Market is an on-line futures market where the contract payoff is based upon the outcome of the upcoming Referendum C vote. This market is operated by the staff of Mile High Delphi. It is designed to test the predictive nature of futures markets.

How does it work?

The 2005 Referendum C Futures Market works in two ways; The A market is a regular futures market. You can purchase one of two contracts, a "Referendum C To Win" contract or a "Referendum C to Lose" contract. Each contract will pay $1, depending upon the outcome of the election. The B market is a contest where each participant in the A market gets one vote on what the actual percentage of the vote will be for Referendum C (to 1/100th of a percent, for example 52.13%). These votes will be due no later than 5:00 PM, Mountian Time, Monday, October 31st.

Who can participate?

This market is for research and teaching purposes. Anyone with a valid e-mail address can participate. Please don't double dip, one e-mail address per person.

Are the participants playing with real money?

NO. This is only a beta. You will receive $100 worth of "Betting Disks" that you can use to purchase futures contracts. We have to get "no-action-letters" from the Division of Trading and Markets of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission so that we can operate with real money without the risk of prosecution. With those we can start a real money market for the 2006 elections. The top three winners (those who would have had the greatest return if we were using real money) and the investor who most closely guesses the actual percentage of the vote that Referendum C receives will win prizes.

UPDATE: (10/26/2005) The payouts for the A market are 1st $100, 2nd $50 and 3rd $25. The payout for the B market is $100 for first.

How do we sign up?

You will go to our sign-up page. All you need to create an account with us is a e-mail account and a user name.

Sunday, September 04, 2005

Soy De Aqui! MHD's 2005 Referendum C Futures Market Opens 09/12.

Mile High Delphi will be opening the only futures market devoted to the upcoming vote on Referendum C.

The purpose of this futures market is to test if a market mechanism can be, or is, more correct than polling in predicting the winner and/or margin of victory in an election.

The following will explain how the market will function.

On 09/06 we will post the trading rules for this market. The market will function in much the same way as the Iowa Presidential Futures market, with some minor variations. Full rules will be available on Tuesday.

During the next week we will begin an auction to determine the opening prices for the market. The auction will be conducted from Tuesday until the 12th. Full details for the auction will be available tomorrow.

Live trading will be conducted Monday thru Friday. Results will be available on Polstate.